As Thursday’s NBA trade deadline looms, the Detroit Pistons seem committed to a rebuild or a re-tooling or a re-something. Mediocrity isn’t as fun as it used to be, and there’s no sense in chasing it in a season that has been derailed by injuries.

They have been actively looking to move Andre Drummond for a while now, but it is becoming increasingly likely that he stays in Detroit through the end of this season, and possibly next if he, wisely (for him), opts-in to the $29 million final year of his contract (this is my nightmare). Derrick Rose came up with a groin/hip injury at the worst possible time and might scare off the teams who were interested in his services. Some other fringe pieces, such as Langston Galloway and/or Markeiff Morris, could be moved for a light return, but those moves (though important) are little more than spring cleaning. 

Is this how it ends? With the Pistons mailing it in for 2019-20, but not being able to make any impactful future-focused deadline deals, despite having desirable trade pieces? Disappointment on the court, and now disappointment on the phones? Say it isn’t so.

Woj to the rescue.

Luke Kennard, eh? We haven’t discussed his name in these trade waters yet, what with him being 23-years-old, on his rookie contract until 2021, and making steady progress in all phases of his game. But when Woj Tweets, you listen…er…read. 

This isn’t Joe Blogger punching in names to the ESPN Trade Machine without context or some dork telling you what deal he made on NBA2K, this is Adrian Wojnarowski. You know, of “Woj Bomb” fame? He has long had a monopoly on breaking NBA news and rumors, so it’s at least worth discussing. We move forward with the trade analysis cautiously and with this caveat in mind, courtesy of Sporting Logically:

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Who is Luke Kennard, really?

Kennard, the Pistons’ 12th overall pick in 2017, was largely experiencing the breakout campaign many had predicted heading into this season, before missing the last 22 games with a knee injury. Kennard is averaging 15.8 points per game on nearly 40% from three (on 6.5 attempts). He is a smart offensive player who has increased his aggressiveness without becoming reckless, one of my keys to his 2019-20 season back in October. He shows a high basketball IQ in the flow of the offense. His 4.1 assists per game on low turnovers help offset some of the, shall we say, less self-aware (*cough* —>ANDRE DRUMMOND<—) players on the team. Defensively, he’s just a guy, not offering much in the way of STOCKS (STL+BLK). Getting a hand in the face of a shooter is about all you are looking for from Kennard. 

Take a trip back in time to game 1 of this season for a sample of Kennard’s offensive arsenal.

Remember that one time when basketball was fun?

All-told, Kennard is looking like a hit based on his draft position. Long-range shooting proficiency is something that will always be coveted in the age of analytical basketball and, barring injury, will keep him valuable well into the latter stages of his career. He will eventually need to be paid like a starting-caliber player if his current production holds – his rookie deal expires and he becomes a restricted free agent in 2021. But Kennard (when healthy) is outplaying his current salary and therefore creates good value for a team trying to contend. 

The Pistons, for a multitude of reasons, are no longer trying to contend in 2019-20. That’s why this trade is at least worth pondering. Whether or not the Pistons pull the trigger should depend on the rebuild timeline. 

What’s the plan?

This is the question that the Pistons ownership and front office need to answer honestly and consistently in order to make any trade scenarios, real or hypothetical, easier to gauge. We know the ship has sailed on 2019-20, so any production Kennard brings to the last third of the season should be viewed as detrimental to their lottery odds in the 2020 draft. How much the Pistons value Kennard should be tied to their expectations for next season, as well as how dead-set they are on re-signing Kennard to his first post-rookie deal.

If the Pistons are viewing 2019-20 as merely a speed bump in their road out of mediocrity purgatory, then they shouldn’t move Kennard without being blown away by a potential offer. Does the Phoenix offer of a 1st round pick (likely a lottery pick), and two second-year point guards in Elie Okobo (31st pick in 2018) and Jevon Carter (32nd) qualify as being blown away? Without a ton of first-hand knowledge of either Okobo or Carter, I think a package with this many bullets in the chamber likely makes it worth the risk. 

If this is an actual proposal from Phoenix, this looks like a desperation offer from a team who is tired of being in the Western Conference basement and wants to start competing since making Devin Booker the highest-paid player in franchise history in 2018. They are currently 20-30, but until last week were actually within striking distance of the 8th seed in the west. However, FiveThiryEight projects them to finish 8th…from the bottom that is. The Pistons are sixth from the bottom in said projections. That’s right, if this deal goes down (without lottery protections) your Detroit Pistons would have a chance at two top-eight picks in the 2020 draft, and one additional opportunity to get some lottery luck and land at or near the top of the draft. 

If that possibility weren’t enough, it is still too early to write off the development of Okobo and/or Carter, who are 22 and 24, respectively. Word on the street is that the jury is still out on Okobo’s upside, given his French professional background and limited NBA minutes given the Suns’ crowded guard rotation. Carter, meanwhile, has limited upside but has a reputation of being a bulldog-type defender (time to go to work!!).

The Pistons were going to be in the market for a PG anyway, with the offseason departure of Reggie Jackson and the possibility of a Derrick Rose trade (either at the deadline or sometime in the future). If one of Okobo or Carter could develop into a capable backup or even a low-end starter, that could change the Pistons draft and free agency plans. Instead of drafting based on need, they could go “best player available” and maximize their chances of landing a star. It could also prevent them from overspending on a PG in free agency, such as Toronto’s Fred VanVleet, whose name comes up as one of the bigger fishies in a shallow 2020 free-agent pond.

Reality vs. Fantasy

Let’s reel it back in (fishing pun) for a moment, as things were getting a bit too fantastical there. Even if this trade goes down as rumored, there is always the chance that whoever the Pistons select with the pick they get in return for Kennard doesn’t develop into the caliber of player Kennard currently is. On top of that, Okobo and Carter are being offered up for a reason, possibly because Phoenix feels they have seen enough evidence that neither will develop into quality NBA rotation players. Kennard is the known entity in this equation. The rest of the pieces are scratchy tickets.

For me, that’s ok because I am of the belief that Andre Drummond will opt-in and remain in Detroit through the end of 2020-21. That’s a bad thing. A very bad thing. Like, the worst thing. As I’m sure you’ve heard by now, I’m not a fan. This pushes their rebuild back another season, as he will continue to eat up developmental minutes and infect my eyeballs with his laziness and lack of “compete level”, to steal a line from coach Dwane Casey. This makes 2020-21 another season of rebuilding proper, thus rendering Kennard’s services expendable. He doesn’t offer the hidden benefits of Blake Griffin’s or Derrick Rose’s star quality or locker room presence. He’s just a good young player who no longer fits on the Pistons’ realistic rebuild timeline. Swapping Kennard for players who may or may not not end up being as good as he is, but would be inexpensive and under team control post-Drummond, sounds like a future I wouldn’t mind living in.

Give the Pistons three darts, put a blindfold on them, spin them around real fast, and let’s see if they can win a prize.

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