I’m not a conspiracy theorist. I make a concerted effort to block out narratives when things can be explained purely by numbers and logic. That being said, it was getting really hard to rationalize the fact that the city of Detroit and its sports franchises are continually boned by the draft lottery process. Maybe some shadowy forces ($$$) really were at play, keeping a downtrodden city from acquiring young, high-profile stars that would expedite the endless rebuilding processes that have resulted in a depressing existence as a Detroit sports supporter. I did a deep dive on the Pistons’ lack of lottery luck last year, but the gist of it is that the franchise had never improved its draft position relative to its final place in the standings. Ever.

Time to put the conspiracy theories to bed. Despite only a 14% chance to do so, the Detroit Pistons have won the 2021 draft lottery.

Now it’s time to go to work.

Good things happen to good people

Speaking of narratives…

a fun one that is totally unsubstantiated but it makes me smile so I am rolling with it anyway, is that the Detroit Pistons won the draft lottery because they deserved it.

Only one team gets the pot-o-gold at the end of the tanking rainbow. This year the Detroit Pistons, led by first-year GM Troy Weaver and a head coach in Dwane Casey whose calling card is player development, executed a near-flawless tank job. ICYMI, the 2020-21 Pistons were a bottom 10-ish team masquerading as a doormat. I called it a masterclass in my season wrap-up because they laid such a solid foundation for the future while simultaneously locking in the best possible odds to acquire a franchise-altering talent in the draft. Despite logging the fifth-worst season in franchise history from a win/loss standpoint, this team was so much more interesting (and fun to watch!) than any Drummond-led team that was trotted out over the past decade.

The product on the court was synergistic with what management told us we would see this year. “Wins” didn’t matter. “Competing” did. And they did just that, with seemingly 1,927 different lineup combinations and nearly every player on the roster getting an audition to play a part in the next version of the playoff Pistons. Some questions remain (is Sekou any good?) but many more were answered.

I’m chalking this lottery win up to competent management. The basketball gods awarded Detroit with some good karma for doing things the right way (shout out to Larry Brown). This lottery wasn’t random. It was justice.

Of all the years to win the draft lottery, this was an especially good one. The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie is on record stating that the top four players on his board are each rated more highly than Anthony Edwards, the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft. And those four players are all very different physically, stylistically, and in terms of experience.

Options galore. Pick your path to prominence. That being said, the top of the draft doesn’t appear to be a tier of four, but rather a tier of one. And you’ve probably heard his name by now.

Is it almost Cade SZN in Detroit?

Cade Cunningham is a bad boy (pun intended). He checks all the boxes. The guy can do everything. He looks like a star in the modern NBA – a primary ballhandler, facilitator, shot creator, and plus-defender with a 7’1″ wingspan (Troy Weaver’s junk is wiggling at that last factoid). He talks like a star – comfortable in front of the camera as a result of being the No. 1 high school recruit in the country prior to his lone year at Oklahoma State. He has the high-character makeup that Weaver and Casey are building this team around. It still feels weird to think a player the caliber of Cunningham could soon land in Detroit, of all places. This just isn’t how it ever works out. But make no mistake, the reason teams tank is for the opportunity to land a star that can become the face of their franchise, and those guys don’t come around every draft (don’t believe the media hype train).

Refer to the excellent breakdown above from Hoop Intellect to familiarize yourself with the specs of Cunningham’s game if you are new to the party. Not gonna lie…I’m new to the party myself. I spent much more time (see: all of my time) familiarizing myself with Jalen Green (Guard – GLeague Ignite) and Evan Mobley (Unicorn – USC) leading up to the draft because I never truly considered winning the lottery an actual thing. I even did some “worst-case scenario” dumpster diving in the likely event the Pistons fell out of the top four entirely (guess I’ll just have to get a Scottie Barnes OKC jersey now).

Generational Talent?

People throw around the term “generational” talent way too loosely. By definition, a once-in-a-generation player should only come around every 20-30 years. Yet every year we hear this cliche overused, sometimes with multiple players in the same draft. So in an attempt to reel in the hyperbole, here is a realistic overview of how good an NBA prospect Cade Cunningham is in relation to his contemporaries. From Sam Vecenie:

“Any team that gets Cade Cunningham is going to have a drastically different outlook moving forward. He’s a spectacular prospect, my favorite to enter the NBA in the last two years. He’d be somewhere in the top 10 within the one-and-done era — and probably much higher if I really sat down and thought about exact placement.“

For the record, the one-and-done era began in 2006. So, according to Vecenie, Cunningham is one of the 10 best NBA prospects of the past 15 years, and he threw in that little sweetener of “probably much higher” if he was playing the rank ’em game. Much higher? So essentially, with Cade we are in the ballpark of a true generational talent.

The fit

Near-perferct, just like he would be with any other franchise that would have earned the rights to his services. Can we just leave it there?

Come on, you know I’m too long winded for neat and tidy bows like that.

One of the things that is jumping out at me is how badly the Pistons need a closer. In my end-of-season breakdown, I highlighted how competitive the Pistons actually were despite finishing with one foot in the league basement record-wise (20-52). Detroit only lost eight games by 15+ points all season, which was fewer than eight different teams that made the play-in/postseason. To take this a step further, 6Man on Youtube broke down the Pistons’ record in clutch situations (exact parameters unclear, take it up with him). The final tally: 7-25, good for a .219 win%, worst in the NBA by a wiiiiide margin (Toronto .282).

Interestingly, the 23-49 Minnesota Timberwolves had a .462 win% in these exact same close game scenarios (18-21) with the exact same late-game +/- as Detroit (-1.6). So, with a little variance, a bounce here, a call there, even simply not resting guys like Jeremi Grant and Mason Plumlee down the stretch to ensure developmental minutes for the young boyz, the 2020-21 Detroit Pistons were a play-in-esque team…without Cade Cunningham.

Enter Cade Cunningham, the NCAA leader in “clutch points” last year – per Hoop Intellect – who also calls him the most “consistently clutch performer” in recent memory.

I think Weaver can find a spot for a guy like that.

I also love the idea of Troy Weaver being able to get very specific in terms of character and fit with Detroit’s three second-round picks. When you pick first overall you know you are making a “best player available” selection by default. That lessens the urgency to find a diamond-in-the-rough type of player later in the draft, instead focusing more on players with higher floors and specific strengths. Weaver knocked his selections of Saadiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart (all-rookie first and second team, respectively) out of the park last year. Each had a very projectable game and performed as advertised. Neither will likely ascend to all-star level because of their capped upside, but that’s ok. Both are going to be plus-contributors for a long time.

With three in the clip (No. 37, 42, & 52) and one in the hole (No. 1), Nate Dogg (Troy Weaver) is about to make some bodies turn cold. Regulators! Mount up.

In other words, after the selection of Cunningham and given what we know about the rest of the roster, Weaver will be able to get very deliberate with his next three selections and show off his famous “eye for talent” thrice more. And he’ll even have the resources to trade up into the first round and double-dip if the EFT gazes upon potential value falling through the cracks (or if he simply wants to consolidate, since there are only so many roster spots to go around).

Questions? Concerns?

No, Jonny Pessimist didn’t take this article off.

Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a “can’t miss prospect”. Though the odds seem comparatively low, Cunningham carries bust potential just like any other player that has ever been drafted. And wouldn’t it be fitting for the capital of sports misery to whiff on their long-overdue shot to join the superstar party?

Cade has a few warts, no doubt. They happen to the best of us. I had one on my foot when I was eight. Luckily, the Pistons have a framework that just might be able to mask Cunningham’s “flaws” (using that term very loosely) better than most.

One of his knocks is consistent defensive engagement. Despite projecting as an above-average pro defender, critics point to the fact that he took a play off here and there at Oklahoma State last season. This could simply be due to the fact that he was a one-man show at OSU, and one simply can’t sustain that high of usage without conserving energy somewhere. But Cade also says he never gets tired in games, attributing his infinite gas tank to the fact that he is “95% vegan” (aka he thinks he’s better than us).

Whatever the Casey may be, it won’t matter once Dwane is his head coach.

One of Casey’s favorite pastimes is taking minutes away from rookies who aren’t playing the right way. Sekou Doumbouya in 2019-20 comes to mind, who couldn’t seem to crack consistent playing time despite showing flashes of the upside that made him the 15th overall pick. Would Casey have the sack to jerk Cade’s minutes around? I wouldn’t put it past him. If Cade has ROTY aspirations, as he’s on record stating, he’d do well to stay on coach’s good side. At any rate, as a Piston Cade would be surrounded by a squad of high-effort and “compete level” guys. This “flaw” would likely be ironed out the day he steps into LCA.

Perhaps more concerning is Cunningham’s compatibility with Killian Hayes, Detroit’s 7th overall selection in 2020 and PG of the future. In some ways, their skills offensively complement each other well. Though Cade’s turnover problems in college can mostly be debunked (largely due to his lack of a supporting cast, defensive keying on him, and poor spacing) he could probably benefit from a slight dip in usage for the benefit of efficiency. With Hayes, despite a truncated rookie campaign, he definitely proved he is a guy that can get to his spot and make any pass. It’s scary to think what Cunningham might be able to do offensively when someone else does the heavy lifting to get him in position to score.

The problem here is with Killian and what he will be able to do when Cade initiates the offense. Because Killian showed next to nothing in terms of scoring potential last season. It was tough to watch at times. Ok, a lot of the time. We can’t just project that Hayes will develop a jump shot simply because he is still green. And I’m someone that was fairly high on Killian coming into his draft. I’m very sensitive when I deem a player uncomfortable to watch. It makes my Drummond PTSD flare up.

But this is ultimately a Killian problem, not a Cade problem. And they should have a year to work out the kinks. Detroit is still on the hook for the ghost of Blake Griffin and the $30 million he is due, which mostly takes them out of the free-agent game until 2022. That is when Weaver will likely shift into a playoff mindset. Until then they are still in development mode, meaning they can figure out how Cade and Killian mix on the fly without the pressure to win now. Cunningham has a long reputation of making those around him better, and Hayes will have to hold up his end of that equation by knocking down the open shots that will come. Hayes’ shortcomings have no bearing on whether the Pistons should draft Cunningham. Besides, they could be a nightmare defensive pairing for opposing backcourts, which is not insignificant.

The other guys

No, this section isn’t a review of the 2010 Wahlberg/Ferrell classic.

This is to highlight just how much upside Jalen Green and Evan Mobley have. A month ago all I wanted was a shot at drafting either one of these guys. Then that whole winning the lottery thing happened. Still, despite Weaver’s vow to uncover every stone and explore every avenue in this draft, there are only two non-Cade options, trading back to No. 2 (Houston) or No. 3 (Cleveland) and coming away with their favorite of Green or Mobley.

Green looks like an incredible offensive prospect. Better than Cunningham in that regard. Put the kids to bed before you watch the above Hoop Intellect breakdown because you are going to make noises they shouldn’t hear. Offensively, this is the “fit” guy for Detroit. An elite scoring guard to pair with the pass-first Hayes. The reason Cade is in a different tier is because of what he offers defensively. If Green can iron out his defensive wrinkles, some of which were communication/team-based, there is definitely a world where he becomes a better NBA player than Cade.

Then there’s Mobley, the first guy I fell in love with when the regular season ended and I shifted my focus to dreaming of better days. He leaps off the screen in very different ways than Green. While Green is the more explosive athlete, Mobley is a 7-foot slenderman (7’4″ wingspan) that doesn’t look like he should be able to move the way he does. When a player’s strengths include “rim protection” and “playmaking/shooting potential” you need to take a long, hard (oh so hard) look. Unlike Green, there are no defensive concerns here, as Mobley eats anything that enters his orbit. He has unicorn potential due to the fact that he is a skyscraper that can handle and shoot from distance.

His biggest concern is whether or not his slim frame can hold up against other NBA bigs. He should have went to Michigan instead of USC. Not only would they have won the NCAA Tournament, but Mobley would have undergone the world-famous Michigan Basketball offseason body transformation a la the Wagner bros. Besides, good luck trying to bully Mobley with Beef Stew as his frontcourt bodyguard. It’ll be the last thing you ever do.

$$$ Everybody’s got a price $$$

This isn’t just the “Million Dollar Man” Ted Dibiase’s motto, but also my golden rule in sports. Falling in love with one guy and putting on your blinders to all other avenues of team building is bad business. It’s going to take a lot for Houston or Cleveland to pry the top pick away from Detroit, but there are some juicy theoretical trade packages out there. Houston has the draft capital to tip the scales if they want to go all-in on Cade, who is a Texas boy and probably was secretly rooting for that Detroit card to be flipped over at No. 2. Cleveland hasn’t done much right as an organization except win draft lotteries and being the closest major city to Lebron’s birthplace. Perhaps they see no path forward besides mortgaging their entire future for the consensus top guy.

Fortunately for the Pistons, this isn’t year one of a rebuild. They need quality over quantity. Second-round sweeteners and post-hype prospects aren’t going to be as enticing to Detroit as they have been in the past. The Pistons won’t, and shouldn’t, settle for anything less than a treasure trove of high-end assets in any trade scenario. Is there a gulf in talent between Cade at No. 1 and Green/Mobley at No. 2/3? No. But fair value is not what Weaver should settle for here, even if he is high on the non-Cade prospects. Detroit holds the keys to this draft and are playing with house money after an unlikely lottery win. I wouldn’t get cute by playing the value game. Make someone blow you away with an offer.

Or simply…

#JustTakeCade.

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