Virtual draft 2020 is right around the corner, and it’s a big one for the Detroit Lions. Mandates…or…ultimatums….or…some vague pressure of undefinable quantity has been placed on General Manager Bob Quinn and Head Coach Matt Patricia to compete for the playoffs next season or hit the bricks. They can’t afford to botch this one, so allow me to offer this definitive guide of NFL Draft do’s and don’ts, specifically tailored to the Detroit Lions.

“Like” The Warm Take on Facebook

Subscribe to The Warm Take to receive the latest articles straight to your inbox

Prediction junkie? Check out Lions Round 1: Best-Case, Worst-Case, Most Likely

So much time is spent on Xs and Os, combine results, scheme fit, and any other number of evaluation methods that front office personnel can get lost in the weeds. The NFL Draft is a chess game. Thinking several moves ahead and capitalizing on your opponent’s mistakes is just as important as checking Jeff Okudah’s hand measurement for the 78th time. Utilizing sound draft psychology tactics will ensure that you can walk away feeling confident that you maximized the opportunities presented.

Most of the suggestions here are universal – strategies I would recommend for any team in any given draft. But this exercise will also focus on Detroit’s recent draft history, current resources, and organizational outlook to determine how this draft can help lay the foundation for an organization that you don’t have to feel embarrassed that you support. 

Don’t: Fall in love (with a prospect)

Alternate Definitions: (1) “Have to have him” (2) “Perfect fit” (3) Can’t risk missing out on _________”

We are going against falling in love – one of life’s greatest predictors of happiness – to kick things off. But make no mistake…falling in love with one specific player is a surefire way of losing sight of the bigger picture and having your judgment clouded. Sometimes the player you become smitten with will be snatched from your loving arms by another team, rendering all the extra time and resources you spent on over-evaluating said prospect useless. Other times you will erroneously trick yourself into thinking you need to trade up or reach (more on this below) for fear of missing out on a player you are fawning over. 

Drafting should be a cold and calculated process. There are plenty of fish in the sea – more than 250 players will be drafted in 2020. There are countless ways to build a team. Keep your options open and play the field.

Falling in love with a player, to the point where you can’t imagine life without them, can force what is quite possibly the biggest draft “don’t” of them all… 

Don’t: Reach (AKA overpay)

Quinn-era example: 2019 – Jahlani Tavai – 2nd round (43)

So you’ve found a diamond in the rough. A player so far off the radar that he barely registers a blip on the radar of most big boards and “expert” mocks. Maybe he even plays on an island 2,000 miles from the continental United States. The world will eventually learn what you already know: that this player is a hidden gem just waiting to be discovered.

So you go ahead and lock in that pick…in the 2nd round. “We got our guy!”. Awkward virtual fist-bumps all around. 

The problem here isn’t the player (who I quite like), but the timing. Most projection systems had Jahlani Tavai, a linebacker out of Hawaii, going somewhere between rounds 4-7. Lions beat writer Kyle Meinke of MLive credits The Athletic’s Dane Brugler for having the highest Tavai projection among all the major draft analysts. I looked into this further and discovered that Brugler had Tavai slotted at No. 64, the final pick of the 2nd round. This means the Lions grabbed Tavai 21 spots earlier than his highest notable projection.

This is a textbook example of reaching and thereby minimizing the value of a pick, which is goal #1 when drafting – getting good value with every selection. Word on the street was that the Patriots (surprise surprise) had their eye on Tavai in the second round, which was the team Brugler mocked him to at No. 64. This likely spooked the Lions, forcing them to take Tavai earlier than they would have liked. You hear teams every year say things like “We didn’t think he wouldn’t make it back to us” or “We knew (team X) was going to take him”. To that, I say…so what?

Never draft in fear. If a team wants to beat your best reasonable price, let them. The earlier you select a player, the more that is expected of them on a performance level to recoup that draft value. Tavai showed some flashes in his rookie season that make it look like he could have a solid career. Had he been selected in the 4th round or later – a totally realistic possibility – Bob Quinn could have already banked that pick as a home run and taken his victory lap. Unfortunately, he used an early-2nd on him. Tavai will need to become much more than solid to exceed his draft-day price tag.

Sometimes getting the guy you want just isn’t in the cards. The stars just won’t align. Always let someone else overpay. If you’ve done your homework elsewhere, you’ll be fine.

Do: Trade down…and up

In that order, preferably. Though it is much easier said than done, despite all the talking heads and mock drafts out there that throw trades around all willy-nilly. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve heard the debate about whether the Lions should trade back from their current No. 3 slot, given the fact that several teams need a quarterback and the Lions already have the best one in franchise history for at least three more seasons (barring a surprise retirement, which happens ’round these parts).

I am all for trading back to No. 5 (MIA), No. 6 (LAC), or pretty much anywhere for that matter, if they can pull it off. The reward of adding significant high-end draft capital is simply too enticing to pass up. I just don’t think the teams below them are going to panic, given the abundance of QB options out there. The first overall picks in 2011 and 2015 – Cam Newton and Jameis Winston – are just out there chillin’ in the unemployment line.

That doesn’t mean the Lions shouldn’t work the phones anyway to see if they can pull something off. Sometimes teams do crazy things when they get desperate…like offer a king’s ransom to move up one spot just to take Mitchell Trubisky. Hey, Chicago couldn’t risk “settling” for Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson. Don’t drink and draft, folks. 

I am just as interested in the Lions trading up at some point in the draft, and I expect it to happen sometime on Day 2 (rounds 2-3). The Lions currently own nine total picks, including four in the first three rounds. They own the fourth-highest collection of draft capital in the 2020 draft.

Rounds 1-3 are the impact positions where the front office will be looking to acquire the players that will make a year-one difference. I have a feeling that Quinn will treat his Day 3 picks (rounds 4 and later) as chips to parlay into an additional Day 2 selection. This will give him another starting-caliber weapon in the holster for the make-or-break 2020 season. 

While it makes sense for Quinn to prioritize immediate contributors over depth players and projects, it is also a strategy he should employ regardless of his own job security. Doing a quick and unscientific review of Quinn’s four drafts in Detroit, I count a grand total of two players who have exceeded their draft value out of the 21 total players Quinn has selected after round 3: Jamal Agnew (2017) and Da’Shawn Hand (2018). The jury is still out on the 2019 selections, as well as guys like Joe Dahl (2016) and Tyrell Crosby (2018), but as it stands that late-round hit rate is below 10%.

Round 3, on the other hand, is Quinn’s bread and butter. Selecting Graham Glasgow, Kenny Golladay, and Tracy Walker in consecutive round 3s from 2016-2018 should be the first sentence in Quinn’s eulogy if he is indeed axed after next season. Flipping this year’s round 4 selection (109) into an additional Day 2 pick is a strategy that could pay immediate dividends. He has plenty of ammunition to make it work with an additional 5th rounder (No. 166 via Philadelphia) in the draft war chest from the Darius Slay trade. Consulting the old handy-dandy Draft Trade Value Chart (pick your favorite model) tells us that picks 109 and 166 are a fair return for a team willing to move out of the 90-100 range. 

Maybe I am falling victim to a round number bias, but going from four picks in the top-85 to five picks in the top-100 sounds so much sexier. Adding five Day 1-2 selections to a solid 2020 free agency haul could set this team up for the job-saving improvement Quinn and Patricia are searching for. 

After jumping into the topic of trades, I have to include one very important related “don’t”…

Don’t: Trade away future draft capital

This one is universal, but is of the utmost importance in Detroit’s case. Considering the pressure the front office is under next season, it can be tempting to view future picks as free money to use in the trade game when your job is on the line. After all, if Quinn and Patricia don’t compete for the playoffs next season those future picks (or lack thereof) are going to be a new regime’s problem. Speaking of the next regime, if things do go poorly next season and this front office needs to be replaced, how appealing will the Detroit gigs even be with a barren 2021 (and beyond) draft cupboard? 

Because current-year picks are more tangible than future assets, which can be difficult to quantify given all of the other moving parts at play (exact draft position, future team needs, etc.) it is common for teams to pay significant interest when trading with future draft capital. You also have the psychological weaknesses of impatience and the unwillingness to accept delayed gratification. I want it all, and I want it now. 

What exactly is the cost of trading the future for the present? It depends on your source. For this argument, I will use the data from The Loser’s Curse, which sounds like it could be a Detroit Lions memoir but is actually a commentary on the NFL Draft and market efficiency. The authors cite a 136% discount rate in future-for-present pick swaps, and claim that teams who acquire the present-year selection are “displaying highly impatient behavior”, while their desperation “provides a significant opportunity for teams with a longer-term perspective”. 

Our Quinn-era example of this discount is the 2018 swap with New England (who else?) that saw the Lions acquire the Patriots’ 4th round pick (114 overall) to select Da’Shawn Hand. This cost the Lions their 2019 3rd round selection, which would have fallen somewhere in the 70-75 overall range. 

Once again, this isn’t about the player, but the lack of logic behind the decision making. Hand appears to be a fine player, though his first two seasons have been riddled with injury. But the 114th pick in any given draft should roughly fetch the 114th pick (or some comparable combination) the following year in return, not a one-for-one 40+ pick surplus. Trade value charts from various sources all agree that the Lions, at minimum, overpaid by more than double what they needed to. 

What if there isn’t a package that makes sense for both sides? Maybe this was the closest the Lions could get to equivalent value in their minds, and they really really wanted Da’Shawn Hand real bad. Well…too damn bad. Looks like you won’t be getting Da’Shawn Hand. Life goes on. Maybe you’ll get lucky and Dominique Thumb will still be on the board when you pick next.

If I wanted your 3rd round pick and I offered you my 4th in return that same year, you wouldn’t even consider it. Yet if we insert time into the equation, the simple act of making people wait makes them do things they know make no rational sense. This is why the Patriots are the Patriots and the Lions are the Fake-triots. 

It will take some restraint and discipline on the part of Bob Quinn (something savvy executives possess), but this organization can’t afford to have Quinn mortgage off the future for the sake of surviving one more season.

I’ve gotten a bit long-winded (it’s my “loser’s curse”), so let’s shoot some draft tips from the hip to wrap things up in a timely fashion.

Do: Anticipate the inexplicable free-fall

It happens every year, and this year will be no exception. Player X falls 10…15…20…maybe even a full round from where he was slotted on your draft board. This wasn’t supposed to happen, and you aren’t prepared for it. The guy has no obvious red flags, he is simply slipping through the cracks. Someone is going to get some major value with this player. Are you prepared to change your plans on the fly and cash in?

If a gift falls into your lap, open it and figure the rest out later. Merry Christmas.

Don’t: Be embarrassed to draft a punter

It’s not sexy. You’ll get some eye rolls from the fanbase and some laughs from the haters. But old reliable Sam Martin is now in Denver and the Lions, for the first time since 2013, need a new punter. I have no issues with the Lions using one of their final two selections on a punter. Though the data is mixed on how much value can be gained from drafting one versus just picking one up off the scrap heap, I’d rather sleep soundly knowing I have a foot I can trust. The Lions have 99 problems, but the punter hasn’t been one. Make sure it stays that way.

After all, as a Michigan grad, I know a thing or two about a punt gone bad…

Subscribe to The Warm Take to receive the latest articles straight to your inbox. It’s free!

“Like” The Warm Take on Facebook

Follow @TheWarmTake on Twitter