The NFC North was thought by many to be the most competitive division in the NFL headed into the 2019 season. It has largely lived up to that hype, with each team currently sporting a winning percentage of at least .500. However, each team has taken vastly different paths to get to their current situation. In this NFC North division breakdown, I will highlight some interesting numbers, key results, and the likelihood that each team will be able to keep their success going.

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Chicago Bears (3-2)

Notable numbers

The Bears are averaging 17.4 points per game, worst in the division by over 6 points. Their offense ranks 30th in yards per game, ahead of only the Jets and Dolphins. Their per game rushing and passing outputs each rank in the bottom seven in the league. All this despite having zero fumbles and being a +6 in turnover margin through the first five games.

Defensively, Chicago continues to be strong, though not as dominant as their 2018 campaign. They rank 3rd in points allowed per game (13.8), trailing only New England and San Francisco for fewest in the NFL, but currently rank outside the top five in total yards allowed per game.

Winning percentage of opponents: .517

Most impactful game: Week 5 loss to Oakland

Oakland may have the same record as Chicago, but make no mistake about it, this is a game the Bears had penciled in as a win in the preseason. They were a touchdown favorite on a neutral field (London), despite missing QB Mitch Trubisky. Meanwhile, the Raiders spent their entire offseason in distraction land, held hostage by “Hard Knocks” and crazy man/honor student Antonio Brown. Has anyone helped him with his homework yet?

#ImmaJustGonnaGoAheadAndRewriteThisWholeThing

Oakland dominated this game, despite the final score being 24-21. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead and held Chicago to 42 yards rushing. They also held the Bears to zero sacks. Chicago’s defense needed to be great in the absence of Mitch Trubisky (who may return after the week 6 bye), but they were far from it in this one. If the Bears miss the playoffs this season they might look back at this game as the reason why. 

Outlook 

The Bears currently sit at 3-2, which seems fine at face value. That is roughly a 10 win pace. However, it is likely that some of their easiest games are already in the rear-view mirror (WAS, OAK, DEN). Chicago, by virtue of winning the NFC North last season, has the luxury of facing two other division winners from 2018, the Rams and Saints, that the rest of the division does not. They also have all of their division road games in the final 5 weeks of the season. Tough sledding. 

I see only one gimme on the remaining schedule for Chicago (home against NYG), meaning they will need to win a bunch of difficult games in order to keep pace with the rest of the NFC North. A week 6 bye came at a good time for the Bears, as they need Trubisky back and healthy. Chicago’s run game has been struggling mightily, and Chase Daniel being tasked with leading this team to come from behind victories overseas is not good for business. 

As I mentioned in my season preview series, Chicago was a team in danger of regression this season. There is a very real possibility that this team goes from first to worst in 2019, after going worst to first in 2018. 

Green Bay Packers (5-1)

Notable numbers

The Packers led the NFL in turnover margin at +7 entering their Week 6 matchup with Detroit, before going -3 (they won that game anyway, but we all know why). This is probably the biggest reason for their early success, as they actually allow more yards per game (364) than they produce (355), including giving up a massive 563 yards to Dallas in a Week 5 win. Green Bay also leads the NFL in yardage gained (benefitted) from penalties (501!) by a wide margin. 

Aaron Rodgers is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt this season, behind the likes of Marcus Mariota, Gardner Minshew, and Kyle Allen (among others), and ranks 16th in TD passes (8). Some of that can be attributed to their awful receivers (not named Adams), who dropped multiple TDs in Week 6, as well as RB Aaron Jones, who leads the NFL in touchdown runs (8), adding some rare balance to a Green Bay offense.

Winning percentage of opponents: .515

Most impactful game: Week 1 win at Chicago

It was the game that opened the NFL season, and it set the tone for the Packers in the Matt LeFleur era. The Packers were 3 point underdogs on the road with a first-year head coach, against a team coming off a 12 win season and division title. The Packers supplied just enough offense to win an ugly game, taking a divisional road W that could pay dividends come December. 

Outlook

While the numbers don’t look overly impressive, a 5-1 start (3-0 in the division) can’t be viewed as anything but a success.

Green Bay should win their next game, a home date against Oakland, giving them a strong possibility of starting 6-1 before facing their mid-season gauntlet (@KC, @LAC, CAR, @SF in 4 game span). The Packers play six of their final nine games on the road, and have to visit Minnesota and Detroit to close the season. This could make for a very interesting December if the other NFC North teams can keep pace. 

The Packers are very fortunate to be 5-1 at this point in the season. They are clearly the team best positioned to win the NFC North, given their 3-0 division record, but are not appreciably better than any of their three division rivals. 

Minnesota Vikings (4-2)

Notable numbers

The Vikings defense has been top-tier. They are one of six teams allowing fewer than 16 points per game this season, and allow the fewest yards per game of any team in the NFC North (310). 

Offensively, the Vikings have been a tale of two teams. They average a middle-of-the-pack 25 points per game, but have gotten there mostly on the ground. They have produced a top-3 run game, as Dalvin Cook has firmly entrenched himself among the NFL’s elite RBs. However, the Vikings passing game ranks near the bottom of the league, barely cracking 200 yards per game (213). The Vikings have two elite receivers (Diggs, Thielen) who are both averaging 70 yards or fewer per game.

While some of the numbers for Kirk Cousins are actually quite good (8.9 yards per attempt ranks 4th in NFL), some context is needed. Cousins has been efficient, but not asked to do much in three of the Vikings’ wins. Cousins’ 155 pass attempts rank 25th in the NFL. Efficiency without volume lessens its impact. In their two losses, Cousins has produced one total TD and two disgruntled receivers.

Winning percentage of opponents: .500

Most impactful game: Week 4 loss at Chicago

Considering the Bears lost Mitch Trubisky on the opening possession of the game, Minnesota missed a golden opportunity to ship Chicago off to the division cellar. The locker room drama started after this loss, and while Adam Thielen and Kirk Cousins have apparently patched things up, there are still trade rumors surrounding Stefon Diggs.

Outlook

Much like Chicago, Minnesota has likely already played three of its easiest games (ATL, OAK, @NYG). Unlike Chicago, the remaining schedule for Minnesota is much more balanced, and overall less daunting. They finish their season with two division home games (DET, CHI) which could have huge implications. They haven’t yet suffered a bad loss per se, and certainly have the pieces to turn around their passing game (and began to do so in their week 6 win over Philadelphia). This team could be extremely dangerous if it does.

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Detroit Lions (2-2-1)

Notable numbers

Matthew Stafford is on a career-best pace in yards per attempt (8.0). His 10.9 air yards per throw rank first in the NFL. These yards have also come with a high degree of difficulty, as nearly a quarter of Stafford’s throws have been into tight coverage (23.7%). Simply put, Stafford is putting in the most efficient season of his career.

The Lions’ much-maligned run game has also finally breached the top half of the league (16th in ypg), which might not sound like much, but considering the history has to be viewed as progress. Surprisingly, they were the only team in the NFL with a kickoff return TD through the first five weeks. 

Defensively, the Lions are one of six teams allowing more than 400 yards per game. This is somewhat skewed by playing a full overtime period in their opener (allowing 80+ yards in said OT), as well as being the only team in the division to face the Chiefs so far. They are first in the NFL with eight fumble recoveries. 

And finally, perhaps the most notable of all numbers: The Lions have the fewest accepted penalties (33) and the fewest penalty yards benefitted from in the NFL (237). As noted above, Green Bay has the most (501). Nearly a 300-yard difference between these two teams. Awesome! But hey, good teams overcome that stuff, right?

*GB has played 1 more game than DET.

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Winning percentage of opponents: .550

Most impactful game: Week 3 win at Philadelphia

Despite my best efforts, many people didn’t want to give the Lions their due after this huge win. Instead, they chalked it up to Philly’s injuries and self-inflicted wounds, which admittedly played a role, but that’s football. I do find it funny that the Lions are never the team who gets a pass for the above factors when they lose, it’s just “S.O.L.”.

Then what happens? Four days later the Eagles stroll into Lambeau and hand the Packers their only loss of the season. Go ahead, apologize. I’ll wait…

There is something to be said for a team that can find a way to win, despite not playing their best. On the road, against a team less than two years removed from a Super Bowl, no less. Sometimes all you have to do is show up and play mistake-free football, and the rest will take care of itself. No sane person would have circled this one as a win before the season. This game provided the Lions with some nice breathing room during their difficult early-season schedule, which would prove invaluable, given the way the following two games would go down. 

Outlook

The Lions have played the most difficult schedule in the division so far, and have come out of it with a .500 record. Following their Week 6 Monday night matchup with Green Bay, they now have the bulk of their most difficult games out of the way. At the very least, the Lions are an interesting and fast-improving team who have acquitted themselves nicely in the early going.

I expected this team to take a small step forward this season, but they appear to be taking a large one. I expected Matthew Stafford to have a bounceback season, but he is having the best of his career. I expected Matt Patricia to be more comfortable in year two, but he looks in complete command of his locker room.

Long story short, they have inserted themselves firmly in the mix in this division. Football can be fun after all. Well, except when the refs get involved.

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