Michigan Football: Underdog label offers big opportunity
Michigan Football is an underdog (+3.5) for the first time in nearly two years heading into this week’s matchup against 13th ranked Wisconsin.
Despite being ranked higher in the AP poll (11), nothing we’ve seen so far this season would indicate that Michigan is anywhere near the level of Wisconsin. The Badgers have not exactly been tested by high-level opponents thus far, being favored by 45 points against the likes of South Florida and Central Michigan. They have nonetheless handled their business, winning the first 2 games by a combined score of 110-0. Michigan, on the other hand, was favored even more heavily against Middle Tennessee State and Army (-57), yet managed to win by a combined 22 points. Hell, they were lucky to beat Army at all.
Outlook: Grim
There aren’t many arguments to be made in Michigan’s favor as to why they should win this game, but there are plenty for Wisconsin. Here are some of the most damning…
- As The Athletic points out, Wisconsin’s No.1 ranked yards-per-play defense (2.1) goes up against Michigan’s No.98 yards-per-play offense. Yikes! Click my affiliate link to subscribe to The Athletic.
- Michigan’s defense, which allowed 200 rushing yards to Army, now gets a date with a Heisman-candidate RB in Jonathan Taylor.
- Senior quarterback Shea Patterson has been wasting valuable preparation time, physical and mental, trying to fix his fumbling issues…
“I slept with a football in my arms every night,” Patterson said. “Taped it up. “… But yeah, it’s been something I’ve been working on.”
- Isn’t it cheating if you tape it to your hands?
- Even the hometown rags are expecting the worst
But wait, there’s hope!
Everyone who knows me will attest that I am a glass-half-full guy.
You have to look under the hood to find them, but there are some things that Michigan has going for them this week.
Returning stars
Michigan could be operating at full-strength for the first time this season. All Big-Ten OT Jon Runyan will make his season debut on Saturday, and it is likely that No.1 WR Donovan Peoples-Jones does as well. These returns are critical for the effectiveness of Shea Patterson, who has been the biggest individual disappointment for Michigan thus far. Runyan can help keep Shea Patterson upright, while Peoples-Jones brings a downfield threat that Michigan hasn’t been able to establish in the early going.
Familiar foes
The return to Big-Ten play should also be a positive for Michigan, especially if you believe some of the quotes from defensive coordinator Don Brown. From USA Today…
“This is a little different deal now. We finally can play Michigan defense, where we can go back and run our stuff that we run all preseason and all spring practice. And, quite frankly, I’ve been writing Wisconsin cards, and I’ve kinda been, ‘Woohoowoo!’ because I can whip them out like that! (snaps fingers) because it’s all the stuff our guys know and are comfortable with. And we’ll jump into it at a high level, without question.
It’s more than a little annoying to hear Brown make it seem like it’s just impossible to prepare for a Week 2 matchup with Army, with an entire offseason of prep and a bottomless pit of 4-star recruits at your disposal. But I digress. If Michigan did indeed over-prepare for Big-Ten opponents, as Brown suggests, we should see a much sharper performance this Saturday in Madison.
Skewed history
Much is being written about all the streaks that can potentially be extended in this game. As MLive reports, Michigan has lost 19 of their last 20 games they have entered as a betting underdog. On Jim Harbaugh’s watch that mark is 0-6. Michigan also has not won on the road at Wisconsin since 2001. These are just some of the reasons why this game is keeping fans up at night.
The problem with referencing history like this, particularly in college sports, is that only a handful of players on the current team were around the last time Michigan was an underdog or played in Madison. Far more players were, however, involved in the 38-13 beatdown of the Badgers last season, the game that kicked off the Michigan “revenge tour” of 2018.
While we all know the final stop in the revenge tour was a cliff overlooking some jagged rocks, there is no doubt players will feel some sense of comfort lining up against the team they manhandled last season. Shea Patterson was very efficient in that game as well, playing a mistake-free game and gashing Wisconsin with big runs. If anyone needs some good juju from a past performance, it’s Patterson.
Less pressure
I’ll finish with a follow up to last week’s article where I highlighted how Michigan’s expectations rarely correlate with their on-field performance. My how the expectations for 2019 have changed. In just two games the team has fallen 4 spots in the AP Poll, without losing mind you. The team many expected to win the Big Ten this season is now expected to lose their Big Ten opener. To me, this can potentially be the best thing that could happen for the mentality of this team going forward.
The players hear all the noise. They might say they don’t listen to it, or that it doesn’t faze them, but it does. When you are touted as a top ten team in the nation, and a potential playoff team, this contributes to your expectations of yourself. If they don’t hear the opinions of the media and fans, then why have multiple players used terms like “pressure”, “tight”, and “pressing” to describe their own struggles. Why on earth would a team be playing tight against two opponents they were favored to smash by 58 points?
Do you know who the above quotes came from? Ben Bredeson and Shea Patterson, senior leaders with a combined 8 years experience. Lofty expectations can affect anyone, no matter how talented or experienced. Clearly Michigan came out of the gate this season ill-equipped to perform like the 7th ranked team in the country. Now the expectations have changed to doubts, which players can use for some much-needed motivation.
For the first time since the revenge tour visited Davy Jones’ Locker, Michigan can play loose and, hopefully, to their potential. And if they need still need some extra help managing those expectations, I’ve got some reading material. It helped me, and it can help you too!
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