The heat of the spotlight could have burned a hole through Jim Harbaugh’s khakis on Saturday. The Michigan football program squared off against undefeated #7 Penn State as a heavy underdog (+7.5), under the lights in a nationally hyped game. In a hostile “white-out” environment, the weight of season expectations (and Harbaugh’s personal big game struggles) added even more pressure to a game that had huge implications. Michigan responded with perhaps their best performance of the year, but it still wasn’t enough to capture an elusive top ten win.

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Moral victory for Michigan?

It’s tough to justify giving Michigan credit for a potentially season-ending loss when they were the team that entered the season ranked #7, complete with conference title expectations. But based on how uninspiring this team has performed to this point, some credit seems appropriate. Jim Harbaugh, for all of his faults (there are many, stay tuned), kept his team mentally and emotionally composed in the most difficult of circumstances.

Michigan was smacked in the mouth by a legit top ten team in an intense environment, falling behind 21-0 early. Yet they stayed composed and found an offensive groove that had been missing for most of the season, on the back of a gutsy performance from Shea Patterson. This is no small feat, as Penn State entered this game giving up the third-fewest yards per game in the nation, and had only allowed 49 total points on the season. 

How you feel as a fan after this game is a matter of perspective. On the macro level, this is loss number two for Michigan, who is just now entering a brutal gauntlet of rivalry games. This could very easily turn into a four or five loss season, which would be a disastrous result for a team that entered the season with top ten expectations of their own. 

But looking at this game in a microscope, I can’t deny the fact that I am finally proud of how Michigan performed on a big stage. They showed grit, toughness, and resilience, three characteristics not exactly synonymous with Michigan football. One physical mistake, a short dropped pass from WR Ronnie Bell in the endzone, kept Michigan from completing the most unlikely of comebacks. How can you not feel for that kid?

Heart. The kind of heart Bell plays with is why Michigan didn’t get rolled up after the initial onslaught. Better days are in store for this team if they play with this kind of emotion. 

Patterson’s “finest hour”

Jim Harbaugh boldly told ESPN’s Maria Taylor after halftime that “This will be our finest hour”. Because he is a strange man and can’t help himself. Shout out to Winston Churchill…

It certainly wasn’t Harbaugh’s finest hour, but it just may have been Shea Patterson’s. I had to watch the game a second time to appreciate just how good Patterson was in this one, as the numbers don’t do him justice (24-41 276 yds, 1 INT). Patterson could have had a monster game if not for the countless drops made by his receivers, most notably Donovan Peoples-Jones, who had several. He also returned his first four punts for a total of negative 2 yards. There’s room for improvement there…

For a guy who garnered recent praise from NFL draft analyst Todd McShay as the 26th best prospect on his latest big board, Peoples-Jones might want to burn the tapes from this game. 

The narrative surrounding Shea Patterson has been his inability to utilize his pro-prospect weapons, but this game flipped that script. Patterson put his receivers in positions to make plays all game, and they failed to do so far too frequently. I counted four dropped passes in the first quarter alone, which played a major role in digging Michigan’s early hole. The 2nd quarter included a 45-yard bomb that was erased on an offensive pass interference and a TD pass that was wiped by another penalty. This doesn’t even take into account all the tough catches that weren’t reeled in.

It’s a fool’s errand to say “take all those drops away and Michigan wins by 30!” (if you are the type of person who says things like this, we probably wouldn’t get along). Mistakes are a part of every game, but this was some bad luck for Patterson. He puts up a monster line if his receivers make good on half of those errors, a reasonable proposition. 

What’s even more impressive is the way Patterson responded to every challenge presented in this game. I thought we knew what Patterson was at this point in his career: a talented QB who didn’t have the mental makeup to fully realize his potential. I couldn’t have been more impressed, or surprised, with how well he managed this game.

Patterson’s season had been defined by ball security issues and his inability to process the game against quality opponents, leading to poor decision making and inaccurate throws. He only had one such mistake in this game, an ugly pick in the 2nd quarter when his intended target tripped. Patterson responded by leading the team to nearly 350 yards of total offense on the following seven possessions. He made plays with his arm and his legs, rarely overstaying his welcome in the pocket (1 sack). Patterson was decisive when he chose to run (34 yards, 1 TD) and converted on multiple 4th downs with the game on the line. If Patterson can consistently perform like he did in this game, Michigan should be able to compete with every team not named Ohio State remaining on their schedule.

And now on to this Harbaugh character…

Another top ten loss for Jimbo…and another loss as an underdog…and another road loss against a ranked team….and so on…and so on…and so on…

What more needs to be said about all the above streaks that continue to grow in the wrong direction for Harbaugh. He’s going to need several winning seasons to undo all the damage his reputation as a coach has taken, and he might have to do it from a different school when all is said and done. 

What I would like to discuss are some of the specific in-game things that went wrong that can be attributed directly to Harbaugh. 

Michigan’s sloppy start, which included using a timeout before the first snap of the game, once again indicates a disconnect between Michigan’s talk about game preparation and actually being prepared. An in-game graphic stated that if Michigan would have completed their comeback it would have been the largest deficit overcome in school history. This is surprising, given that Michigan has been playing football since the upper paleolithic period (worldwide expansion of modern humans, first evidence of pictorial art). 

For those unfamiliar with human evolution, here is the gist…

Ideally, you’d like to not have to make record-breaking comebacks to win a game.

Another lowlight from Harbaugh was his decision to have Jake Moody attempt a 58-yard field goal just before halftime. Not as time expired, but with nearly a full minute to go. It fell well short (obviously) giving Penn State the ball at their own 41-yard line, with 51 seconds and 3 timeouts remaining. Luckily for Harbaugh, his defense held and the damage was mitigated. But make no mistake, this man isn’t the brightest.

I have a direct comparison here from the Detroit Lions’ Week 1 game against the Arizona Cardinals. You can find The Warm Take’s hilarious and informative breakdown here. Head coach Matt Patricia elected to punt rather than have Matt Prater attempt a 58-yard field goal. You know, Matt Prater, the most prolific long-distance kicker to ever play professional football? He doesn’t get to attempt a 58-yarder, but Jake Moody does. Moody’s next make from over 50 yards will be the first of his career. I’ll let you know when that happens. 

This is the perfect example of coaches struggling with in-game risk/reward management. These guys can be so Xs and Os smart, but when all that’s required is common sense, all bets are off. The Lions ended up tying in the aforementioned game, and likely left three huge points on the board, on a kick that had greater than 75% chance of being good (the actual odds, not just an arbitrary number I’m throwing out there). Michigan avoided disaster by stopping Penn State after Moody’s miss, which had roughly ____ % (fill in your own very low number, perhaps 0?) chance of going through the uprights.

We can’t just play the result here and say “no harm done”, as this was a shockingly bad decision. Jim Harbaugh is extremely fortunate that this miss didn’t play a bigger role in the outcome, or he would be getting roasted worse than he already is.  

Playing for the rivalries

This loss all but eliminates Michigan from the conference title picture. They no longer control their own destiny, instead needing to rely on scoreboard watching. That’s in addition to running the table the rest of the way. But that doesn’t mean the season is over. Michigan’s performance against Penn State actually inspires some optimism that they might be able to take a game or two from their upcoming slate of rivalry matchups.  

Up next is Notre Dame, once again under the lights. The Irish (8) present yet another opportunity for Michigan to get a top ten win. Since Michigan opens as a home favorite (-4) a win wouldn’t get Jim Harbaugh off the schneid in the underdog and ranked/road columns. But Harbaugh’s personal narrative should take a backseat to the return of a great rivalry. This game should be about the players and pride, not an overpaid and overhyped head coach.

At least he ain’t sniffin’ that bonus $$$ tho.

Michigan vs. Notre Dame Preview

All hands on deck, you degenerate gamblers out there! The line for Michigan vs. Notre Dame has been pushed to even, after UofM opened as a 4 point favorite. A few more Irish bets can push Michigan into underdog territory, where an opportunity to end one of their dubious streaks would present itself. Jim Harbaugh himself should place a few wagers in the shadows to push this line since this is directly linked to his lack of big-game success. 

According to SB Nation, despite the top ten ranking the Notre Dame team Michigan will square off with this Saturday is not on par with the 2018 version Michigan fell to 24-17 in South Bend. Some of that is due to a quarterback who has not developed in his second year as a starter (sound familiar?). While QB Ian Book is efficient, he quickly abandons his read progressions when pressured and instead looks to make plays with his legs. If Michigan can get the type of pressure on the quarterback that it has lately (14 sacks the past 3 games), it is unlikely they will be torched by the deep ball like they were in the loss to Penn State. 

Notre Dame has a per game turnover margin of +1.7, which is just a fraction from leading all of FBS. The only time ND finished in the red in turnover margin this season was their loss to Georgia. Turnovers have been the Achilles heel for Michigan this season, but they have been much better recently. Shea Patterson, in particular, has seemingly put his fumbling woes behind him, though the next one he coughs up might cause a chain reaction mentally. If Michigan takes care of the ball, it will eliminate Notre Dame’s biggest advantage they have held over their opponents this season. 

Notre Dame actually has the feel of a classic Michigan team, although less like this year’s version. They have beaten up on some bad teams (particularly defensively) to give their metrics a boost and might be over-ranked at #8. They have only played six games, four of which have been at home, and just one against a currently ranked team. They haven’t played a road game in over a month. Now, Michigan Stadium isn’t exactly a house of horrors (Halloween themed sports analogy) for opposing teams to play in. But this rivalry has been dominated by the home team in recent years, winning seven of the past eight games. 

If Shea Patterson can build on the performance he had against Penn State, Michigan could be 1-0 in the only season that matters now: rivalry season.

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