Michigan Football: Cursed by High Expectations
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To kick off the Michigan Football Archives at The Warm Take, I will discuss why my beloved alma mater is consistently over-rated. Merely two games into the 2019 college football season, the University of Michigan looks poised to over-promise and under-deliver yet again. Despite a 2-0 start, the Wolverines have already slid three spots in the AP poll since opening the year inside the top ten once again. Michigan opened the year at No. 7, their third appearance in the preseason top-8 since 2012. The last time Michigan finished the season in the top 8: 2006.
As a Michigan fan, I have learned over the years to temper my expectations. It has been a long time since this program has instilled the confidence that it can perform to its full potential, particularly in the games that matter most. The program’s struggles in rivalry games are well documented, and quite frankly I’d rather not go over the details. And I don’t gotta’. It’s my site.
So why does this program continue to receive the national praise that it typically doesn’t earn by seasons end? Let’s dive into some potential causes for the disconnect.
Strong recruiting classes
Say what you will about the on-the-field results, but Michigan consistently brings in the quality of players needed to compete at the highest level. SB Nation released a weighted composite ranking of the top recruiting classes of the past four years, and has Michigan clocking in at No. 12. A top-10 class is also in the cards for the 2020 season, according to multiple recruiting sites. All told, the Wolverines have had five top-10 recruiting classes in the past decade.
Michigan’s recent recruiting classes are not only deep, but they are producing top-end NFL prospects as well. Since 2017, Michigan has churned out 11 players who were selected in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. Despite the abundance of talent, it rarely correlates in the win-loss column when all is said and done. Each Michigan team since the co-national championship year of 1997 has finished the season with at least 2 losses.
History
As I’m sure a Michigan fan has told you at some point, they have the most wins in the history of college football. For a program that has been around for 140 years, this can be a bit of wordplay, as they had a head start on many other programs that weren’t playing before the light bulb was invented.
Pro Tip – If you are a Michigan fan and find yourself using the “winningest program” line in defense of your team, here is a variation: Michigan has the highest winning percentage (.730) in the history of college football (D1). You still get to claim all those wins from the Rutherford B. Hayes era, while using a statistic that is much more relative.
Brand recognition
Whether you love them or hate them, The University of Michigan probably makes you feel something. This comes with the territory when Forbes names you the third most valuable program in the country. Obscene ticket revenue, sponsorship dollars, and donor contributions are just some of the ways Michigan adds to its own high expectations each year. This puts the football program under a microscope that is probably a bit unfair (to the players, at least).
Pressure
Step into my office for a moment. In my many years as an amateur psychologist, I always get excited when I stumble upon an idea or terminology that I can relate to sports. Today’s example revolves around flow, which is a state of optimal experience or performance (“in the zone”) coined by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi in 1975. Athletes can experience a state of flow when their skill is met by a challenge of appropriate difficulty. Unfortunately, Michigan is missing one key characteristic of those experiencing flow: A feeling of being in control and not being concerned about failure.
Nothing quite says “not in control” like 7 fumbles and 17 penalties in two games in which you were a combined 58 point favorite. Recent comments from new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis also clued us into the mindset of the players. Gattis used the terms “pressing”, “high-level of excitement and standard”, “a lot of pressure”, and “opportunity for them to get calm” when describing Michigan’s recent near-loss to Army. It seems that Michigan is not operating under Csikszentmihalyi’s definition of flow, and is instead having their on-field performance hampered by the national expectations set upon them.
No one is afraid to play Michigan
I hear it almost every time Michigan plays a smaller school or heavy underdog, and I’ve heard it in both games this season. It comes in various forms, but the idea is the same: No one is intimidated to play in Michigan Stadium. Other fun derivatives:
- “These kids came for a fight”
- “Going toe-to-toe with the big boys”
- “They are giving Michigan everything they can handle”
A road game at Michigan simply doesn’t test the mettle of a team as much as it should. Army linebacker Cole Christiansen said after the OT loss to Michigan “I don’t think a single person was nervous” walking into Michigan Stadium, despite being “wide-eyed” the previous season playing at No.5 Oklahoma.
Conclusion – make them prove it
This program doesn’t deserve your sky-high expectations, so save yourself some disappointment and lower that bar a notch. Trust me, it’s still going to hurt if they get rolled by Ohio. But at least after some deep reflection, and maybe a bottle of Kirkland Signature Classic Red Sangria, you can pick yourself up, dust yourself off and say “I expected that to happen”.
Or maybe…THIS IS THE YEAR!!!
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