The Michigan basketball program’s “nothing to gain, everything to lose” victory at Nebraska on Tuesday ended a four-game losing streak and improved their record to 12-8 overall, yet they remain buried in 11th place in the Big Ten standings at 3-6. Michigan has finished with a losing record in conference play just once in the last nine seasons (2014-15). They have missed the NCAA Tournament just once in the past nine seasons as well (also in 2014-15). It’s been quite a run of sustained excellence, but Michigan has now used up all of its house money accrued during their blazing hot 7-0 season start, which seems like an eternity ago.

Welcome to the bubble Michigan, we got fun n’ games – Axl Rose

Adversity blues

A January game against a 7-13 team who is on a five-game losing streak isn’t supposed to be a must-win. Yet that is the bed Michigan made for itself since their undefeated November. Take this quote from shooting guard Eli Brooks (from MLive): 

“It feels like a lot of pressure has been lifted off of our shoulders. Obviously, we still have a lot of work to do, coming up with a big stretch. But a lot of momentum now with this win.”

Pressure lifted off? A lot of momentum? This doesn’t sound like a team that, less than two months ago, received some votes to be the AP No. 1 team in the country. To say the script has been flipped, and in a hurry, would be an understatement. Six conference losses with eleven games still left to play has a way of knocking you down a few rungs on the confidence ladder. 

To make matters worse, there are a whole slew of factors that have contributed to Michigan’s recent bout with adversity. Let’s go down the line, topic by topic, to identify what’s been ailing Juwan Howard and dem boyz.

Isaiah Livers’ groin injury (part deux)

Many would say that Zavier Simpson is Michigan’s most important player, and he certainly is a worthy candidate. He does, of course, have a swell hook shot that is all the rage these days. But with each passing game that Michigan shoots like a flaming bag of dog sh!t from distance (Simpson included), Isaiah Livers’ absence is magnified that much more.

Michigan’s offense has gone stagnant in too many games of late, primarily due to their inability to hit uncontested threes. Per Sports-Reference, through nine Big Ten games played, Michigan ranks tenth in the conference in made threes. Slightly below average. Not terrible! However, they attempt the fifth most threes per game. Uh oh. I don’t like where this is going. And now for the grand finale…Michigan ranks dead last in the conference, shooting a putrid .276 from distance. My stomach hurts. That, my friends, is what you call inefficiency.

In case you haven’t read any of my Michigan basketball gems this season (what’s wrong with you?), Livers is a 50% shooter from downtown in 2019-20. No one has been able to fill this specific void in Livers’ absence. That is far from his only contribution to the team, but it has proven to be the most difficult to replicate.

Livers returned to the lineup against Illinois last weekend, only to (we think) re-injure his groin in the second half. Michigan went on to lose at the buzzer. They are now 3-5 without him, with two of those wins coming against teams that are a combined 15-28 (UMass-Lowell, Nebraska). Hot take alert: Michigan is better with Isaiah Livers. They won’t be on the bubble for long if he misses another month (or more) of action. 

Follow @TheWarmTake on Twitter

It is unclear how long Livers will be out, due to the vague nature of NCAA injury news. So much has to be read between the lines for clues to the severity and timeline of injuries. It was originally assumed that Livers re-injured his left groin, because that’s what it looked like on the court. He seemed to be favoring the area, was spotted on the bench afterward with tears in his eyes, and was even reportedly quoted saying the words “same injury” in a now-deleted story on the Michigan Athletics website (per Andrew Kahn of MLive). Interesting…

Now it is being reported by multiple sources that Livers, in fact, suffered a new injury to…a vaguely groin-y area that isn’t technically the groin? Whatever you do, don’t call it his groin.

Imma go ahead and assume it is, in fact, a groin re-aggrevation. I’m generally not a conspiracy theorist, but this sounds like Michigan trying to play public damage control. You don’t need the accusations of rushing a kid back to action before he’s fully healed hanging over the program. He did, after all, only last 20 minutes before getting hurt again. But even if he was rushed back, it’s not like Livers himself wasn’t chomping at the bit to get back out there and be the star player of a perennial contending program, having his skills showcased on national TV for the world to see on a regular basis. 

This is all reckless speculation, of course. Livers could play against Rutgers this weekend, or return sometime next week. If I were a bettin’ man, I’d say we get the “day-to-day” diagnosis before every game, where they tell us how he’s getting closer every day, yet he ends up missing another month or more of action. By that time, it will be too late. Michigan will not survive another extended Livers’ absence. They’ll be lucky to punch a ticket to the NIT.

Or maybe he does just have a sore hip/inner thigh/third toe/right earlobe and he plays against Rutgers. I’ve been wrong before. It’s just extremely rare, like a Lions playoff win. 

Why are the shackles on Teske?

In the absence of Livers, Michigan has two senior leaders in Zavier Simpson and Jon Teske who should have been able to step up and keep this team from bottoming-out to the extent that it has. For better or worse, Simpson has taken on greater offensive responsibilities, attempting 15.6 shots per in the Big Ten games that Livers has missed. Teske, somehow, has seen his attempts go down in that time (9.7), taking even fewer shots than his season average (10.1). Something doesn’t add up here. 

Remember when I talked about Michigan’s three-point struggles earlier? Well, Teske helped light the bag on fire. Teske is attempting over 30% of his shots from deep during conference play, despite knocking down merely a quarter of said attempts. Did I mention he is a 7’1″ 260 lb. behemoth with a perfectly paired blend of strength and touch around the rim? 

We already discussed Michigan’s last-place conference ranking from three, but do you know who ranks first in two-point percentage?

Let’s recap:

Last in 3P% —> 5th in 3PA

First in 2P% —> 11th in 2PA

Nebraska was a prime opportunity for Teske to impose his will against an outmatched and undersized opponent, when Michigan desperately needed a win. Yet Teske, despite playing 32 minutes, finished only 4-7 from the field. Seven shots, despite no Nebraska player being anywhere near his size or skill. This output should have been doubled (at minimum). Teske’s under-utilization is a strange development for a team with a 6’9″ 250 lb. former NBA all-star power forward for a head coach. 

Know your strengths and play to them. Get the ball to Teske in the paint and let him go to work. You might even get some of the big men who have abused Michigan (Oturu [MINN], Williams [Purdue], Garza [Iowa]) into foul trouble. This isn’t rocket science, but it does require an honest look in the mirror. Juwan Howard isn’t doing his kids any favors by allowing them to play inefficient and ineffective offensive basketball.

Wagner’s shooting struggles

I don’t take pleasure in criticizing college athletes, particularly 18-year-old freshmen who just arrived in this country via Germany five minutes ago. But the amount of open shots, and I mean WIDE open shots, Wagner is missing these days is staggering. It’s a head-scratching development for a kid who was billed as someone who’s elite shooting profile would allow him to make an immediate impact at the collegiate level. Take these recruiting nuggets from NBA analyst and former Wolverine Tim McCormick (from 247Sports):

“He reminds me a lot of a more skilled, and better defensively, Duncan Robinson,” said McCormick. “(Wagner) has a lot more upside. He’s 6-7, 6-8, and he may have grown since last summer when I saw him. But he really has a quick release. You can’t leave him. He just seems college-ready. (He’s a) different player than Brazdeikis. (Wagner is a) better shooter.” 

That’s high praise. Oddly enough, the knock on Wagner was supposed to be his strength, athleticism, and ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the basket. He has basically flipped his recruiting profile on its head, as he has shown grit, toughness, and an effective slashing ability getting to the hole against much meatier Big Ten bodies than his slender frame should allow (he will get the famous Michigan offseason weight room transformation soon enough, just like big bro).  

That 3P% tho. It’s becoming an old bit, but there are just a bunch of guys who have their fingerprints on this issue. 

Wagner is knocking down fewer than 30% of his threes this season (.293) on a healthy five attempts per game. In Big Ten play…wait for it…things have gotten even worse. He is jacking it up more (6.3 attempts) at an even less efficient rate (.263). He is 3-19 from deep in his last three games alone. I believe I have identified an area for improvement.

While the results have been gross, the good news is that there is no further action needed. He is playing the way he needs to play stylistically. He isn’t hesitating or second-guessing. The form looks fine. The shots just aren’t falling. It’s odd to see it happen to a kid who was groomed through the European professional basketball circuit, but slumps happen. This is a season-long slump he’s in, but undoubtedly just a rough first 16 games of his collegiate career. He has to continue to take his shots, and eventually they will fall…right?

This analysis has gone heavy on Michigan’s three-point deficiencies, but I did have another, much different criticism of Wagner queued up. Fortunately, after further review, the ruling on my criticism has been overturned. But I’ll share what it was going to be, since we’re all friends here. 

Wagner picked up a technical foul for taunting after blocking a shot just as Michigan was on the verge of icing the game against Nebraska, which, as we’ve discussed, would have been a resume-shredding type of loss at this point of the season. This came late in a game in which Wagner, despite scoring 18 points, went 1-5 from three and committed six turnovers. My notes from this incident read as follows:

“Wagner gives me anxiety. Shut up and make a 3”

Hey, the notes are raw and full of emotion. They aren’t as refined and polished as the art I produce for The Warm Take. Did you see the flaming dog poop video earlier?

After further deliberation, I’m good with Wagner’s intensity. Even as misplaced as it was in this particular situation, he needs to be who he is, or risk compounding his shooting woes into other areas, such as losing his mental edge or confidence. He is a Wagner, after all. This is what they do. They are the type of players you would hate if they weren’t on your team. They also have very punchable faces. But you will never question their effort or passion for the game. Don’t take it from me, here it is in Wagner’s own words (from 247Sports):

“I’m very passionate, very emotional, (and) when I kind of get that way it helps me. Especially offensively.”

Speaking of those punchable faces…

Better days ahead?

I could go on and on with the doom and gloom analysis of how Michigan’s season has detoured since taking the express lane straight to the No. 4 ranking in the country, but you get the gist of it. Livers is the most important player on the team and they need him back desperately. Everyone needs to shoot better from three. They need to play to their strengths and take advantage of mismatches. 

With all that being said, I’m not giving up on my boys just yet. Michigan Basketball has been the only consistent source of joy I derive from sports in the past decade, and I’m not letting that go without a fight. Here are some rapid-fire reasons for optimism:

The Big Ten is a gauntlet. There is no shame in losing conference games when damn near everyone not named Northwestern and Nebraska has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament. The record for bids from a single conference is 11 (2011 Big East). The Big Ten has two fewer teams, yet very well could send more to the dance. At the very least, the Big Ten likely will set a record for sending the highest percentage of their teams to the post-season.

Michigan still doesn’t have a bad loss. Not that being in a loaded conference gives you many opportunities for bad losses. Nevertheless, based on the NCAA quadrant definitions (click here for a rundown), Michigan is one of only 14 teams in the country that has not lost a quadrant-2 game or lower (9-0). That being said, quad-1 has slapped them around pretty good this season (3-8).

I’ve noticed my optimism hasn’t been very optimistic so far. I have noted this and will adjust accordingly.

If the season ended today, Michigan would make the field. I’m not a bracketologist (not licensed, anyway), but Michigan bought themselves so much leeway in November, highlighted by their smoke-job of No. 2 Gonzaga on a neutral court (still the Zags’ only loss) that they still are likely in the field if they can simply go .500 while avoiding bad losses the rest of the way. While discussing exact seeds and regions can wait until March, most projection systems currently have Michigan in the 9-10 seed range (except CBSSports, who has Michigan as a “First Four Out”. Jerry Palm bout’ to get this palm!). 

KenPom fun facts. There are any number of ranking systems that you can use to identify what is going on under the hood in college basketball. One of the most trusted sources for finding the truth is Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency-based analytics system. Taking the entire season into account, KenPom has some good things to say about Michigan. They are ranked 27th in terms of overall efficiency, have played the third most difficult schedule in the country (first in terms of opponent’s offense), and have been one of the more unlucky teams in the nation (efficiency vs. actual record). Bad luck never gets old.

Michigan is 1-0 without “X”. Zavier Simpson missed the last game after being handed a one-game (or more?) suspension for violating team rules. The team is staying tight-lipped about what actually transpired, and Juwan Howard’s non-committal verbiage left the door open for additional missed games. I don’t anticipate that happening, and am taking Michigan’s win sans-Simpson as a net positive. They won their first true road game of the season without the guy who has been labeled their “quarterback”, “heartbeat”, and _______ (insert your favorite leader cliche here). In the process, guys such as Eli Brooks and Brandon Johns Jr. were able to step into the spotlight and put the usage boost to good use.

Maybe Simpson comes back with something to prove, wanting to erase any potential doubts about his game and/or character. I’ve mentioned his shooting struggles, but he still has a slight turnover problem this season in need of correction, as I’ve recently highlighted. He coughed it up six more times last week in a loss to Penn State, and many of his TOs this season are of the unforced variety (traveling, offensive fouls, even a good old-fashioned double-dribble). 

At the end of the day, the thing we can hang our hats on is that we know what Michigan is capable of when it is healthy and firing on all cylinders. This is a team that can do some serious damage come tournament time, because that’s what Michigan does. But first thing’s first: they have to get out of that damn bubble. 

Subscribe to The Warm Take to receive the latest articles straight to your inbox. It’s free!

“Like” The Warm Take on Facebook