Following Michigan’s 89-65 obliteration of a solid and likely NCAA Tournament-bound Indiana team on Sunday (their 7th straight win against the Hoosiers), Michigan finally climbed back to .500 in conference play (7-7), a place they haven’t been in nearly six weeks. That still puts them in the back half of the Big Ten standings and a full four games behind first-place Maryland. Michigan’s realistic dreams to win the Big Ten regular-season title died during their two-win month of January. They are still looking up at seven teams with only six games to play.

But make no mistake: when this season is all said and done, Michigan still might be the last Big Ten team standing. Michigan has officially burst the NCAA Tournament bubble they played their way into last month, and are playing like the top-ten team they were before the calendar turned to 2020.

It all coincides with the return of Isaiah Livers.

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A tale of two teams

With Livers: 12-4 (includes a 2-pt loss to Illinois after injured). Average margin: +12.5

Without Livers: 4-5 (includes a 26-pt win over UMass-Lowell). Average margin: +0.4

So, yeah. The guy is pretty important. 

You won’t see many gaudy box scores from Livers. After all, he only averages a shade over 13 points per game. But he is just a few decimals from the 50/40/90 shooting slash line, the gold standard for offensive efficiency. To call Michigan’s offense inefficient in the games Livers has missed would be an understatement. He just has a way of making his touches count without commanding a high usage rate. This is extremely valuable for a team as deep and talented as Michigan. 

Do you know what else lends itself to efficient offensive basketball? Not turning the ball over. Like, ever. Livers has 15 turnovers in 16 games this season. Five of those came in the season opener against Appalachian State. If my calculations are correct, that means Livers has 10 turnovers in his last 15 games. The guy plays over 30 minutes per game! Take care of the ball, and it will take care of you. 

For as much value as he brings to the table offensively, the defensive impact Livers makes is perhaps just as noteworthy. For a guy who doesn’t stuff the stat sheet with defensive numbers (3.5 REB, 0.4 STL, 0.6 BLK) the scoreboard tells a different story. Michigan has allowed 72.7 points per game without Livers and only 65.5 in the games he has played. Michigan has now held seven consecutive opponents under 70 points, a streak that started when Livers returned from his original groin injury. 

Livers occupies a unique space, as he is undoubtedly one of the leaders and most talented players on the team, but also has “glue guy” qualities and plays within the framework of the team concept. He never overexerts himself or resorts to hero ball, though his game would likely translate well to more selfish play, given his offensive versatility and athleticism. Simply put, Michigan can afford to lose certain players and remain NCAA Tournament quality. Livers is not one of those players.

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Austin Davis > Jon Teske?

Speaking of guys Michigan can afford to lose right now, Jon Teske still hasn’t rediscovered his mojo that has been MIA since early January. After averaging nearly 15 points per game through the first 15 games this season, he has failed to reach that total in any game over the last 10. Magnifying Teske’s struggles is the fact that opposing bigs have had career nights against Michigan all year, with the latest being Indiana backup PF De’Ron Davis going a perfect 9-9 from the field, mostly on Teske’s watch.

I covered Teske’s struggles in late-January, when the team outlook was much more gloomy sans-Livers. A look back at my observations reveals that, at the time, it seemed Teske was simply being underutilized. Since then, it has become apparent that Teske is just in a major funk, as evidenced by his 8-34 performance from the field over the last four games. He’s not falling in love with the three-ball as he was earlier this season – he has only attempted four over that four-game span – he just isn’t getting deep enough post positioning for a guy with a size advantage every time he steps on a basketball court (7’1″, 260lb).

Even worse is the fact that he doesn’t realize he isn’t in position and will still throw up slop. Opposing bigs are bodying Teske into low-quality shots far too often, as some of his post hooks never even clear rim height. He has historically been somewhat of a black hole – once Teske gets the ball, he is usually going up with it. In the past, this hasn’t been a negative, but you would expect to see growth in this area, particularly for a guy whose shot hasn’t been falling. Teske’s regression is startling for a senior who just became Michigan’s all-time wins leader (along with Zavier Simpson), and it’s hard not to consider it a knock on Juwan Howard’s coaching, considering he was what Teske aspires to be – an all-star NBA big man. 

On the plus side, his body language, effort, and energy remain consistently good, which leads me to believe this is still just a slump (albeit an extended one) that he will emerge from sooner or later. Just as I was about to jot another negative bullet-point in my notes he dropped this hammer on Sparty, which made me smile.

One reason why Michigan is cruising right now, despite Teske’s struggles, is the emergence of Austin Davis. It’s strange to even call it an emergence, since it seems like he has been on the team since 1997. I have done several lengthy Michigan Basketball write-ups this season and this is the first time I have mentioned his name. But Davis has scratched and clawed his way up the depth chart, onto the court, and into my heart. The (somehow) 21-year-old career garbage man has been making an instant impact in every game lately, despite extremely limited action. His per-minute contributions in conference play absolutely dwarf Teske’s, and he is due for an increased workload given his recent success. Here’s hoping Teske senses that another big white dude is coming for his minutes and snaps him out of his funk.

A small-town local kid who gets in the game and gets straight to work? Dirty, filthy, Big Ten big boy work? Sign me up.

Public apology

Sometimes when I pen a critique of a player there will be a little Warm Take angel on my shoulder whispering into my ear that my take is rising above room temperature and that maybe I should back away. Over the course of the season, I have been critical of Zavier Simpson, Michigan’s unquestioned leader on and off the court. His turnover issues, overreliance on his work-in-progress long ball, and his struggles against Michigan State (and Cassius Winston in particular) were the causes of my concern.  

Since we last spoke, Simpson has taken my criticisms and drove them into a utility pole in the dead of night like they were a 2011 Toyota RAV-4. 

Turnovers: Simpson has logged only six total turnovers across Michigan’s current three-game winning streak. This was capped by an 11 assist, 1 TO master class against Indiana. Perhaps the days of his six turnover games (he has had four this season alone) are now in the rear-view mirror (get it?).

Jackin’ it up: Simpson has gone back-to-back games without attempting a three (a span of 53 minutes), as he has been focusing primarily on being a facilitator. This is a massive 180 from a guy who has attempted seven threes in a game multiple times in the past month alone. This is a scary development for the rest of the conference, as the current NCAA assist leader (8.2) is sticking to what he does best and letting his more skilled teammates knock down the treys.

To be fair, I will give him credit for knocking down some shots in big games. Simpson recently went 7-14 from deep over a two-game stretch against Ohio State and Michigan State. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t terrified every time he uncorks a long ball, but he has made significant strides this season that can’t be denied. Still, Michigan is a much better team when Simpson is attacking the basket and either finishing or kicking it out to an open shooter. 

Redemption: Speaking of Michigan State, Simpson finally outperformed rival Cassius Winston en route to Michigan’s 77-68 win over MSU last week, snapping a four-game losing streak against the Spartans. Simpson had the best outside shooting game of his career on the big stage, while Winston was held to 5-18 shooting. That’s a far cry from his 11-19, 32-point (career-high) performance against the Wolverines earlier this season. Bonus assist to Eli Brooks, who guarded Winston for most of the game. 

Perhaps I should have given the bulldog a longer leash, given how much joy he has brought to my life over the past four years. Here’s hoping he continues to put my takes in the freezer. 

Rolling with the homies

Michigan’s roller-coaster season is on the way back up, as they have surged into the KenPom top-15 while boasting an offensive and defensive efficiency that each rank in the top-30 in the country (one of just nine teams who can claim this distinction). It couldn’t happen at a more critical time: Out of six total, four road games remain on the regular-season docket against teams with a combined 5 losses at home. Undefeated-at-home Rutgers is up next, a team which Michigan recently took down on a neutral court in what was easily their best non-Livers game of the year. With Livers back in the fold (*hopefully, he tweaked his ankle against Indiana*) Michigan has a great opportunity to pick up their sixth Quad-1 win of the year, which would bump them into the top-ten in this important bracketology metric. 

For the first time since having a cup of coffee inside the NCAA Tournament bubble, Michigan goes into a game with a lot to gain and little to lose. A hot (and healthy) Michigan is one of the best teams in the country, and right now they are exactly that. Can we just start the Tourney now?

Go Blue!

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