Michigan is a basketball school, and I’m proud of it. My boys just finished off a dominant run through a loaded conference and are now B1G regular-season champions and I need to get some positivity on paper before something bad happens, like an Appalachian State (16) vs. Michigan (1) first-round NCAA Tournament matchup (yes, it’s a real thing that could happen).

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Pandemic playback

If a guy in his sweatpants writes a 1,500-word blog post analyzing Michigan’s chances to win the Big Ten tournament, but the next day the tournament (and life) gets canceled by a pandemic that would ravage the globe for the next year-plus, does it make a sound?

Exactly one year ago to the day I was in my foxhole, digging through the data and looking for a narrative to concoct as to why my beloved Michigan basketball, the only consistent source of joy I derive from sports in a town of never-ending rebuilds, had a chance to make it to their fourth consecutive Big Ten Tournament final.

A trip down memory lane reminds us that the 2019-20 version of the Wolverines had a modest 19-12 overall record, were only .500 in league play, and finished the regular season losers of three out of their final four games. That body of work earned them the No. 9 seed in the conference tournament. It was (and still is) unclear whether Juwan Howard inherited John Beilein’s magic wand that makes Michigan get hot in tournament time after grinding sluggishly through a consistently brutal league gauntlet.

Howard never got to show whether he was up for the postseason challenge in his maiden voyage at the helm of his alma mater. But this season? The resume headed into tourney time looks a wee bit cleaner. No employment gaps. Strong references. Relevant volunteer work.

Michigan Ken Pom-mel the competition

Michigan’s current 19-3 record is just percentage points off from the best record in the history of the program (.867 – .864). A Big Ten Tournament championship and Final Four appearance could still get them there, even without winning the Natty. Their league-winning 14-3 conference record (sorry Illini) is made all the more impressive by the fact that the league is absolutely loaded with NCAA title contenders. KenPom’s efficiency rankings have six Big Ten teams landing in the top 13 overall. And do we even need to talk about the depth in the conference? You can play that track on a loop. Of the top 62 teams in KenPom efficiency (roughly the size of an NCAA tournament field, eh?), twelve come from the Big Ten.

Think Ken Pomeroy is just some dork with Excel skills and a lot of time on his hands that doesn’t know anything about real basketball? Shame on you! Are you forgetting his work as professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Utah? I bet you did forget about that. Dude is a meteorologist. How are we gonna know where the meteors are going to land without meteorologists? When KenPom talks, I listen.

In all seriousness, to restate just how strong the Big Ten looks this season, Sports-Reference’s SOS rating tells us that Michigan just played the most difficult schedule in the history of the program. This number will only rise with more quality opponents on deck (unless they get bounced in their opening matchup of both tourneys). Put it this way: B1G bottom feeders Penn St., Northwestern, Indiana, and Nebraska have played the most difficult schedules in the country, as that’s simply because they had to run the conference gauntlet and didn’t have the luxury of playing against the team in the mirror.

Keep in mind that Michigan played a short and relatively weak non-conference slate due (mostly) to pandemic restrictions and playing it safe in terms of travel. Though the No. 201 ranked Golden Grizzlies resembled the Revenant bear against the Michigan DiCaprio’s back in November, with the Wolverines needing OT before finally stabbing Oakland in the jugular. We don’t need to relive that night. Just watch this award-winning bear mauling instead for the general recap.

What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger? Yeah, we’ll go with that narrative.

But wait, there’s more…

Think I’m coming on a bit heavy-handed, propping up the strength of the conference to undeserving heights just to inflate my team’s accomplishments?

I deny nothing. We press on.

What if I told you that Michigan, the only team in the country that sports a top 6 offense and defense, had zero players earn first-team all-conference honors or make the conference all-defensive team (as voted on by coaches)?

I bring this up for multiple reasons. This is yet another illustration of how stacked the talent is in this conference. On any given night Iowa’s Luka Garza could drop 35 on you or Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn could punch you right in the melon for no damn reason.

We also could get some chip on the shoulder side-effects from the snubs here. These individual awards don’t mean much to THE TEAM THE TEAM THE TEAM, but Michigan has a group of studs that will be playing in the big leagues before long, and those individual accolades can bolster a draft stock portfolio. Take Franz Wagner for example, who was probably most deserving of, at minimum, that all-defensive honor on the back of his constant engagement and nearly 2.5 STL+BLK per game (only he and MSU’s Aaron Henry are top-15 in each stat). He’s currently sitting on the fringes of the lottery at No. 15 on Sam Vecenie of The Athletic’s draft big board, higher than any other prospect in the Big Ten. Of course, this ranking was published on March 1st, before award season. And who was nipping at Wagner’s heels at No. 18? Illinois’ Ayo Dosunmu, of All-Big Ten first-team fame.

Wagner has grown tremendously since 2019-20, and it is clear his 3&D skillset is going to fit in seamlessly with whatever NBA franchise lands him. But he could stand to assert himself more offensively, as his efficient scoring should make it relatively easy to average north of 15ppg (he’s only at 12.9ppg for the season). A more offensively aggressive Franz Wagner would be a matchup nightmare for opponents come tournament time. Here’s hoping newly crowned Big Ten Coach of the Year Juwan Howard puts up some bulletin board material.

Speaking of bulletin board material…

Have you seen the pathetic attempts of Illinois begging to be co-Big Ten Champions alongside Michigan even though Michigan had the higher conference winning percentage, which was the criteria agreed upon prior to the season to deal with uneven games due to COVID cancelations? Michigan ended the season with three fewer games played than the full 20-game conference schedule due to a three-week shutdown of the athletic department from late-Jan to mid-Feb, a portion of which they were relegated to Zoom workouts in their dorms (which doesn’t sound like an advantage, contrary to what Illini nation would have you believe). When Michigan finally returned to the court it took all of one half to shake of the rust and knock off Wisconsin on the road, KenPom’s current No. 12 team in the country.

This isn’t just emotional fans venting on social media either, Illinois’ own athletic director posted this tear-jerker of a plea for his university to be able to hang a bogus banner in the rafters, while simultaneously saying this year’s regular-season champion is meaningless and hedging by saying he takes nothing away from Michigan’s accomplishments. Meanwhile, Josh Whitman, the AD in question, was part of the advisory committee that voted UNANIMOUSLY for the winning percentage clause to be put in effect this season, and reaffirmed his vote as recently as Feb. 26th.

Where did Trump find a Josh Whitman mask?

The three games Michigan couldn’t make up: rematches with Northwestern, Indiana, and Penn State, against whom Michigan went 3-0 and defeated by a combined 39 points. I have an idea! Why don’t we just take away three of Illinois’ games against these teams and pretend they never happened. After all, they did get to slap each of these teams around twice, a luxury Michigan could not partake in. Final tally: Michigan 14-3, Illinois 13-4, with nearly identical conference schedules. That settles it. It’s fair and it makes sense because I said so and that’s what I believe. Isn’t that how it works?

Mr. Whitman. Illini fans. I know it hurts. You absolutely rolled up Michigan without your best player at Crisler Center in the only head-to-head matchup between the schools. You think you’re better than Michigan, and I won’t refute your claim. But your AD helped make this bed. Take it up with him. Sorry, not sorry. Stop embarrassing yourselves and keep your eyes on the ball. The most important basketball is yet to be played. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to sweep up all this Maize and Blue confetti.

Ju-wanna win a Big Ten title? Come to Michigan!

I simply cannot believe Juwan Howard has hit the ground running this fast after taking over for John Beilein in 2019. I expected Howard to excel in the recruiting department, though I don’t think anyone could have seen him landing the top class in the country in 2021 (and it ain’t even close) so quickly. Then again, who wouldn’t want to play for this guy?

The reason I was always a big Beilein guy was that he excelled at taking less heralded and overlooked prospects and maximizing their potential (Trey Burke anyone?). Howard has done something along those lines as well with this squad. Remember, this team just barely cracked the preseason AP rankings at No. 25. Six Big Ten teams had more bullish preseason expectations than Michigan. While it helps to have guys like Mike Smith and Chaundee Brown, transfers from Columbia and Wake Forest, just fall out of the sky and slot into key roles of your rotation, Michigan was not supposed to be receiving-first-place-AP-votes-in-March good.

It’s been said before (by me, if you care to revisit) but I think it bears repeating how smartly Juwan Howard constructed his coaching staff to fill in any and all gaps in experience and player development before they could become issues on the court. He brought in Phil Martelli, formerly of St. John’s, whose 24 years as a collegiate head coach came in slightly above Howard (zero). He retained Saddi Washington from Beilein’s staff to help smooth the transition process and give the Beilein era recruits a familiar face in the locker room. And Howard Eisley is a former NBA-er who is old enough to say he played against MJ but young enough to say he played against Lebron. Kids eat that stuff up.

But can he do it in the playoffs?

Here’s where I start to come down a bit from the high of Michigan’s regular-season run. The Beilein era spoiled us into expecting deep postseason runs, be that in the conference or NCAA tourney, and it shouldn’t just be assumed that this trend will continue under a new regime until Howard proves it. John Beilein led Michigan to the Big Ten Tournament title game in each of his final three seasons at the helm, winning it all in 2017 (8 seed) and 2018 (5 seed). If Howard can stretch the streak to four Michigan will become only the second school to accomplish this feat in the 23-year history of the tournament, and the first since the conference expanded to include Maryland and Rutgers. In other words, it’s really hard to get there every year, yet Beilein made it look routine until he decided to dip his toes in the NBA waters and take the Cleveland Slugs Cavaliers gig.

In the big dance Beilein’s track record was just as impressive, with an overall record of 20-9 in the NCAA Tournament over the course of his 12 seasons as Wolverines head coach. In Michigan’s last six tournament appearances that record improves to a glistening 18-6.

Beilein’s Wolverines routinely received the label of “tough out” or “team to watch out for” rather than true national title favorite. Howard will not have the luxury of flying under the radar with this squad. Despite dropping 2 of 3 to end the regular season and losing Eli Brooks to an ankle injury in the finale (he could return Friday), this is still a likely one-seed and the betting odds still view Michigan as the back end of a “big 3” with Gonzaga and Baylor. At the time of this writing, the Wolverines sit at +420 to be the last team standing when the dust settles at the end of the madness.

They have the tools. They have the resume. The only question is whether they have that unquantifiable Johnny juju that Michigan seems to summon when win or go home season rolls around.

We’ll find out soon enough whether Michigan can add more titles to it’s pandemic trophy case.

Hail!

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