Matthew Stafford deserves better, and I’m here to do my part.  

The longtime Detroit signal-caller has been labeled many things over the course of his 11-year career. Polarizing. Overrated. And don’t forget two of my personal favorites: “Not a leader” and “Stat Padford”. These are all bogus criticisms of varying degrees, each worthy of their own full-length debunking. Depending on how long it takes for COVID-19 to give us our live sports back, I might make defending Stafford a regular column. Some people are just unwilling to separate the highlight-reel throws and gaudy numbers from the stigma that comes with being the face of arguably the most futile franchise in American professional sports history.

Stafford’s name popped up in the news stream this week by way of the new “For Sale” sign planted on his lawn (not a story). Apparently that meant it was time for another round of unsolicited criticism from fans and pundits for the guy who has been a consummate professional and class-act for this franchise since he was drafted as a chubby-cheeked 21-year-old in 2009.

Not sure why, considering his game is aging like a fine wine. Perhaps a bottle from his own private wine cellar…next to the glass elevator…across the hall from the largest indoor infinity pool in the state…adjacent to the indoor basketball court featuring Palace of Auburn Hills hardwood – all real amenities from Stafford’s humble abode. Sounds fun. I think I’ll make a low-ball offer and see what happens. I can use my stimulus check for a down payment.

So, exactly what shade has been thrown Matthew Stafford’s way lately? Let’s discuss…

S.O.L. Radio Caller Guy + Hot Take Host Guy

I made the mistake of turning on local sports radio recently only to hear a caller claim that the thoroughly average Andy Dalton is a better QB than Stafford because he has more playoff appearances (4-3). Nevermind that Dalton hasn’t been there since 2014, was absolutely brutal to the tune of 1 TD and 6 INTs in his four playoff appearances and is currently preparing for his new gig as first-string clipboard holder for the Dallas Cowboys.

That’s ok. S.O.L. (same old Lions) radio caller guy says stuff like this all the time because he is the worst. He’s rarely capable of nuance or perspective and is just excited to hear his own voice on the air. No need to overreact, right? Typically yes, except for the fact that the host agreed with him. S.O.L. caller guy + hot take host guy = me wanting to kill myself.  

Callers can be ignored. Hot take hosts, however, are in a position of influence. They can turn one-off criticisms into narratives, which S.O.L. caller guy will then repeat to anyone who will listen. Just like that, ignorance spreads like wildfire, leaving us all covered in awful opinions.

Survey Says…

In other, more subtle Stafford disrespect news, The Athletic conducted a Lions Fan Survey that took the temperature of the fanbase on several hot-button issues. On the menu were items such as “Confidence level in Bob Quinn/Matt Patricia/Ford Ownership?” and “What is your grade for the Lions’ 2020 draft class?” I participated because, despite how much I hate instant draft grades, I love a good pie chart. 

Want a gradeless, yet GIF-ferrific Detroit Lions 2020 draft recap and review? Check it out here.

The results were mostly what you’d expect. Fans have little confidence in Matt Patricia and even less in Ford ownership. People were happy with the Lions’ 2020 draft class and gave Quinn a modest bump into “meh” territory for his efforts. 

But what caught my eye was the question titled “How much longer until the Lions should look to replace Matthew Stafford at QB”, to which 42% of respondents said sometime within the next two years. That would mean a (un)healthy slice of that pie think the Lions should move on from Stafford before the end of his current contract, which runs through 2022, seemingly via trade or release (unless they think having a $30 million backup is a good business model).

I’m not concerned with the nearly 4% of respondents that said Stafford should be replaced “immediately” because there is no reasoning with that guy. That’s just S.O.L. radio caller guy’s brother: S.O.L. survey guy. The only stats he cares about are wins and losses. But that still leaves a good chunk of fans who have seen just about enough of the Stafford era and are close to moving on, despite the fact that he just turned in the most efficient season of his career. 

You probably know that Stafford was on a career-best and/or league-leading pace in several areas before his season was cut short with fractures in his back. A trip back in time to my Week 9 Observations vs. Oakland (his final game of 2019) reminds us that Stafford led the NFL in passing YPG (312), passing TDs per game (2.4), and his 8.6 YPA ended up ranking second in the NFL behind only Ryan Tannehill and his Cinderella campaign with the Titans (give the assist to rush king Derrick Henry).

Now allow me to share with you some lesser-known stats I’ve stumbled upon recently that might sway anyone who is still on the fence about whether Stafford is capable of carrying this team to a sacred and undisturbed land called the second round of the playoffs.

Exhibit A:

As ESPN NFL analyst Matt Bowen unearthed (hat tip to Detroit Sports Nation), only two QBs finished with a top-5 QBR vs. man coverage, zone coverage, and the blitz in 2019. One was runaway (pun intended) NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. The other? Little old Matty Staff. Bowen capped off the Stafford praise with this parting shot…

Matthew Stafford was excellent against virtually all defensive looks in 2019. The zone-elite Vikings, blitz-heavy Cardinals, and balanced Super Bowl Champion Chiefs were all lit up by Stafford last season to the tune of 1,040 yards, 10 TDs, and just 1 INT. He had a passer rating of 110+ in each game.

And yes, I’ll say it so you don’t have to: The Lions were somehow 0-2-1 in those games. What more could Stafford have done, other than put on 100lbs between drives and play defensive tackle (lookin’ at you Snacks)?

I would’ve loved to see what Stafford would have done in a home matchup against the porous Tampa defense in Week 15. David Blough hung 260 yards on ’em, so I’ll pencil Stafford in for a modest 960.

Exhibit B:

In a common box score, a quarterback can be rewarded with a completion, yards, and sometimes even a TD when a ball that should have been intercepted flys through the hands of the cornerback and into those of the receiver (see: Darius Slay vs. Amari Cooper in Week 11). Conversely, a perfectly thrown pass that doinks off a receiver’s hands and into those of a defender goes into the books as an interception. This is just one example of how traditional stats can tell an incomplete story.

Context matters. You may not be a fan of the “coulda/woulda/shoulda” game, but ignoring the finer details and simply pointing to results is lazy and easy.

The fine folks at ProFootballFocus have context and nuance baked into their grading systems. That’s why I found the following nugget to be particularly interesting…

A lot goes into a “positively-graded throw“, including ball placement, timing, and other situational factors. Not every on-target throw is a positively-graded one, as many passes are low degree of difficulty and expected.

All quarterbacks deal with bad luck to some extent. Being tied for fifth in this metric isn’t exactly a criminal indictment of Stafford’s teammates who, for one reason or another, aren’t cashing in on enough opportunities.

But when we consider the fact that Stafford missed eight games last season, yet still finds himself in the top-5, it makes me wonder how this list would look with games played factored out. A reshuffling of these names on a per attempt basis confirmed my suspicions…

1- Aaron Rodgers | 2- Russell Wilson | 3- Matthew Stafford

So what exactly is causing all these plus-throws to fall incomplete, even though Stafford is putting the ball exactly where it needs to be? It’s impossible to know for sure without seeing the replays of each occurrence, but the obvious first place to look is drops. The Lions have actually been pretty good in this area in recent years and had only 13 drops as a team in 2019 (though what is considered a drop is very subjective). So, what gives?

My theory: These incompletions are largely a result of the lack of separation created by Lions’ receivers, particularly Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. As I touched on in my draft recap, the Lions are in need of receivers with disparate skill sets (AKA guys who actually GET OPEN!!!). Golladay and Jones each ranked in the bottom-3 in the NFL in terms of average separation distance in 2019, and 2018 wasn’t much better, with each falling in the bottom-15.

Even the haters out there can’t deny that Stafford can make all the throws with his laser, rocket-arm. But perhaps his accuracy has been an underrated quality this whole time. Stafford, along with Rodgers and Wilson, have been middle-of-the-pack type guys in terms of completion % in recent years. Now I think we know why.

Here’s a dirty little secret of mine: I’m probably the only Lions fan in existence that actually feels kinda bad for Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, he loves himself some Aaron Rodgers and he’s broken my heart more than a few times, but man is his team doing him dirty. He should do himself and the Lions a favor and find a way out of Green Bay.

X-to-the-Z XZibit

We’ll cap things off with a stat that might not seem all that relevent at face value, but the accompanying clip speaks volumes…

There’s the A-word again: Accuracy. Except this tidbit points out just how accurate Stafford was in 3rd and long – obvious passing scenarios. Just beautiful football. Big-ups to OC Darrell Bevell for eliminating the one-yard-shy-of-the-first-down route, which had long been a Detroit staple and is the primary cause for my hair loss.

Other things to note from the clip: check the lack of separation we discussed above, as it definitely shows up repeatedly here. At some point, the Lions, either by design or through personnel changes, need to start making things easier for Stafford. His margin for error is razor-thin.

How does a team end up in so many 3rd and long scenarios in the first place? Show meeeeeeeeeeee lack of a run game?

Finally, for the “Stat Padford” community, how many of those throws qualify as stat-padding, the concept of which is entirely subjective in the first place? How’s zero sound? Every one of those passes came in a meaningful game scenario, and many came in tight 4th quarters against eventual playoff teams.

Sadly, there’s a good chance my defenses of Stafford are falling on deaf ears. If you don’t like what you see when you watch him play, analytics and nuance probably ain’t your thing anyway. But I will not relent in my quest to highlight just how underappreciated this man has been.

That is until he inexplicably retires because he just can’t take this shit anymore.

Subscribe to The Warm Take to receive the latest articles straight to your inbox

“Like” The Warm Take on Facebook

Follow @TheWarmTake on Twitter