The Detroit Lions dropped their third straight game in a Week 7 loss to the Vikings. They also lost Kerryon Johnson and Darius Slay to injury. There was no controversial call or unlucky bounce that led to this loss. They were simply beaten by a better team in all phases of the game. Let’s get to some observations, before discussing whether or not the sky is really falling.

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Boo birds

Ford field was jazzed up for the start of this game, as fans were taking their frustrations from the Green Bay debacle out on the officials before the game. But are we positive they were booing?

We know at least one fan in attendance wasn’t booing.

When the league comes out and admits the officials blew a call (or four) that likely cost you a game against the team that some are now crowning the best in the NFC, yeah, I’d say a few boos are in order. That result is only magnified after the Lions’ 42-30 loss to the Vikings, which pushes the Lions to 0-2 in the division and under .500 overall for the first time this season.

How different would the narrative be right now if those calls weren’t made, yet everything else about the season was exactly the same? The Lions would be 3-2-1 following their most difficult stretch of games, and hope would be alive and well. Instead, we have panic setting in and all the go-to tropes of “S.O.L.” are being thrown around. I turned on sports talk radio for three minutes and heard “Stafford is overpaid”, “Patricia has lost the locker room”, and, of course, “the season is over”. And that’s why I don’t listen to sports talk radio. My IQ drops a little after each caller. Nuance people, nuance!  

That’s not to say there aren’t causes for concern, because there certainly are. Strap in as I take out my favorite target, hopefully for the final time.

Public Enemy no. 1: “Snacks” Harrison

If you’ve read my observations this season you’d know I’ve been hard on this guy for most of the year. It became apparent as early as week 1 when he was quoted as saying he had been “dominated” by the Cardinals offensive line (a frightening admission) that something was off.

His snap counts are down, as he once again participated in fewer than 50% of the plays (31 total). That’s fewer than fellow defensive tackles Kevin Strong and John Atkins (I have no idea who that guy is or where he came from). Full disclosure: he left the game briefly in the 2nd quarter, costing him some snaps. But he has struggled to stay on the field for consecutive plays all season regardless. His run stops are few and far between when he is on the field. The man who Pro Football Focus crowned the #1 interior run defender for four straight seasons now ranks #86(!). A shocking fall from grace for what should be the Lions best defensive player.

Harrison held out this offseason in hopes of earning a contract extension, missing voluntary workouts and mandatory minicamp in the process. He got his extension (one year $11 million), so good for him and his family. But the long-term damage he did to his production, conditioning, and possibly his reputation, might wipe out that extra year he earned, and then some. This guy has gone from the best run defender at his position to a below-average one in a single offseason.

This isn’t reckless speculation anymore, as Harrison has hinted that his missed offseason activities have played a role in his struggles. But he won’t go all-in on this notion, falling back on the opposing teams game planning to stop him. And why would he? That wouldn’t be good for his personal brand. What’s worse is that his extension was actually signed weeks after he finally reported to camp. It’s possible he would have gotten his extension without the holdout, which has seemingly cost him his conditioning and a nice chunk of change in fines ($338,000 in sacrificed bonuses + fines). 

But enough about Harrison’s finances, how has his lack of production affected the team? Well, after acquiring Harrison last season, the Lions defense allowed 3.76 yards per carry, good for second-best in the NFL. This season they allow nearly 5 yards per carry (only five teams are worse). They could have used a vintage Snacks performance against the Vikings and the NFL’s leading rusher Dalvin Cook. They didn’t get it, as Cook cruised to an easy 142 yards (2 TDs), routinely bouncing off tacklers en route to one of the best games of his career. 

Speaking of tackling, most of the team has been brutal in that regard, and Harrison hasn’t carried his weight either (no pun intended). He is currently on a 40 tackle pace (good lord), less than half a normal season’s output for him. Up to this point, I have been criticizing Harrison based on the expectations that he is an elite run defender. At some point, I have to adjust those expectations since he is taking up way too much of my time and website space. I’m done writing about this guy until further notice. Because I just can’t anymore.

Another game, another Matthew Stafford gem

This wasn’t Matthew Stafford’s best game of the season, and that’s saying something. He threw for 364 yards, had 4 TDs, and averaged over 8 yards per attempt for the 5th time this season, improving his career-best pace. All against a Vikings team that came in allowing 217 passing yards per game, a top 6 unit. MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers barely cracked 200 yards against Minnesota in week 2 (with a healthy Davante Adams). Stafford has now posted a passer rating of over 110 in half of the games this season and now holds a 13/3 TD to INT ratio this year. 

Stafford is the guy I will feel the worst for (besides myself, obviously) if the Lions miss the playoffs this season, as he has been an absolute stud. If that happens it will just add fuel the fire for the Stafford haters that lack the capacity for critical thinking and need simple little packages for their opinions to fit in (i.e. “he’s never won anything!” or “stat padford”).  

Speaking of “stat padford”, what is the counter-argument for the fact that Stafford has posted the two highest QB ratings of his career after the retirement of Calvin Johnson (this season and 2017)? Just an honest question for the Stafford detractors.

Oh, and if you are one of those “he’s not a leader” guys, just follow the link from my Tweet last week to a story that might change your mind. Feel free to follow @TheWarmTake on your travels.

Sooooooo…..that’s it right?

This loss hurts, but not as bad as people might think. The NFC North division title drought will almost certainly continue, there’s no disputing that. But there are still a bunch of winnable games left on this schedule. Tampa, Washington, and next week against the Giants are all home games against teams the Lions are clearly better than. Oakland and Denver are two winnable road games. The Lions could very well dig their way out of this hole, and it might only take two weeks.

Breaking news

*It is now being reported that Kerryon Johnson is being put on injured reserve after undergoing a knee procedure. This rules Johnson out for the next eight games. 

Well, that puts a damper on things now doesn’t it? I was trying to close this week’s observations with some optimism (I’m generally a very sunny guy). The spin here is that Johnson hasn’t had a good sophomore campaign, averaging a putrid 3.3 yards per carry. He hasn’t been utilized in the passing game, hauling in only 9 passes in six games. He has also made some big mistakes that have impacted the final score (the KC goal-line fumble, the Green Bay drop/fumble). To his own admission, he has also left a handful of big plays on the table due to poor reads on blocks. 

Full disclosure part two: I am aware that Kerryon has faced a hefty amount of 8-man fronts, thus limiting his opportunities for big gains. For this, he deserves some slack. But no matter how you slice it, the Lions success this season has come through the air (per usual), not the ground. They can survive the loss of Johnson, and may not miss much of a beat offensively. Unless, of course, they try to force the run game with players who aren’t suited for heavy groundwork. When the chips are down, just rely on your strengths. Screw “balance”, they haven’t had it since Barry.

More breaking news

*The Lions have reportedly traded S Quandre Diggs and a 2021 7th round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for a 2020 5th round pick. 

Wow. Can I just finish my observations, please? This is a strange one, considering Diggs was a Pro-Bowl alternate last season, as well as a team-voted captain. Diggs’ play has fallen off this season, like many of his defensive teammates. He has been the biggest culprit in the missed tackles department, routinely trying to lay big hits without wrapping up. You can afford a missed tackle or two when you are creating havoc with hits and causing turnovers, but those haven’t come this season. 

Safety is a position of depth for the Lions, with young players like Tracy Walker and Will Harris considered to be the long-term future in Detroit. It is totally possible that whoever acquires Diggs’ snaps will actually be an upgrade, purely based on 2019 performance. The bigger question is: will the locker room be able to survive the loss of one of their leaders? 

The players have shown much more “buy-in” to Matt Patricia and his staff this season, with the acquisition of players who fit his system personality. The Lions have played scrappy and proud, and Diggs’ attitude fits those characteristics. We’ll have to wait and see how the rest of the team responds emotionally to his loss. Thank you for your service, Mr. Diggs.

I am generally in favor of a GM making trades, because it shows a willingness to improve, either immediately or for the future. It’s always easier to just sign free agents, play out the season and retool in the draft. Bob Quinn is always working the phones (usually to New England), and I appreciate that about him. The Golden Tate trade ruffled a lot of feathers last season, yet it proved to be the right call. Maybe the Diggs one will too.

Diggs was a sixth-round pick in 2015 and was just shipped out for a fifth after a largely successful Lions tenure, just as his contract was beginning to have a greater salary cap impact. That’s called value. Now, the Lions weren’t exactly in need of cap relief, but who knows what the trickle-down effect will be. Maybe this is the precursor to another, bigger move.

Or maybe I just don’t want to admit this season is over. Man, the Lions were undefeated a few minutes ago. What the hell happened?

Football happened.

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