If there’s one thing that quarantine life has taught us, it’s that everyone has an opinion on what the Detroit Lions are going to do in round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft. Be sure to bring your floaties if you venture out into the overcrowded waters of draft prediction content, or you risk drowning in a sea of mock drafts and rumors from all manner of bogus “sources”. One thing that observing human behavior has taught me is that reasonable doubt is a trait that’s in short supply. Draft prognosticators think they have all the answers when there is very little evidence to support that claim. 

That’s why you won’t find a mock draft here at The Warm Take. While they can be fun to pass the time, they are a largely pointless exercise. How is anyone supposed to predict what Lions GM Bob Quinn is going to do when the man himself might not even know at this very moment, with the draft just hours away? What I do know is what I want to happen. I think. And I’m pretty sure I know what I don’t want to happen. Maybe. 

I don’t know how the puzzle pieces will fall, and neither do you. Here are a collection of reasonable scenarios – ways this draft could play out that are in the realm of possibility and worth exploring – and whether they fall under the umbrella of best-case scenario, worst-case scenario, or somewhere in between. Since we are dealing in hypotheticals, I will take a more emotional approach to this exercise. There will be plenty of time for hard-hitting analysis after shit gets real.

Best Case Scenario:

Lions trade No. 3 to Miami for No. 5 and No. 39

OR…

Lions trade No. 3 to Chargers for No. 6 and No. 37

Detroit selects Jeff Okudah (CB – Ohio State)

These two scenarios are so similar that we might as well lump them together. The Lions have been openly shopping their third overall pick since the NFL combine, but have yet to pull the trigger on a deal. This despite several teams in the top-10 being in the market for a quarterback, which the Lions are not. Tua Tagovailoa is the obvious big-ticket item that will likely be available at No. 3, though he comes with more red flags than a Trump rally. 

The closer we get to the draft, the less likely it is that there is some pot-o-gold at the end of the rainbow for the Lions. Ideally, you would have liked to procure one of Miami’s other first-round selections as the ultimate prize (No. 18 or No. 26) to go along with No. 5, but at this point, that seems highly unlikely. At any rate, trading back to No. 5 or No. 6, while still having a great chance at landing an elite corner prospect in Jeff Okudah, would have to be considered a major win. Adding an additional second-rounder would allow the Lions to swing for the fences on one of those picks while filling a need with the other. 

What round a player is drafted can sometimes become arbitrary. After all, the 32nd player selected is technically a first-round pick, while the 33rd is not. Pro Football Focus claims that 27 players have earned true first-round grades in this draft. At least one of these players will be available at a second-round price for the Lions at No. 35, and getting my hands on another first-round talent would be a top priority if I were Bob Quinn. Trading back and adding a bonus second-rounder gives the Lions the luxury of taking the best player available, regardless of need, who slips through the cracks.

This scenario also turns Okudah into more of a value play, though the Lions wouldn’t exactly be reaching (one of my draft no-no’s) if they selected him third overall. The guy simply “checks all the boxes”, to use a lame and tired cliche. I don’t want to get too in-depth with the Okudah breakdown now (there will be plenty of time for that later), but getting him at a slight discount – he clocks in at No. 3 overall on The Athletic’s Consensus Big Board (an aggregate of 54 rankings across the industry) – would definitely count as a Day 1 win in my book. 

Honorable best-case scenario mentions:

Lions trade No. 3 to Raiders for No. 12 and No. 19 – If Quinn takes a best-player available approach to this hypothetical scenario (he won’t), the Lions could come away with a top-tier receiver and a second-tier pass rusher (Chase Young is a one-man tier).

Lions trade No. 3 to JAX for No. 9 and No. 20 – If there is any truth to the rumors of the Lions falling in love (another no-no) with DT Derrick Brown, this is a trade that should interest them. 

Worst-case scenario: 

Lions draft Tua Tagovailoa (QB – Alabama)

There are plenty of people out there who consider this the Lions’ best-case scenario. Not on my site. Plain and simple: I am a Stafford-or-bust guy. I’m rolling with Matthew Stafford as my QB until the depression from being a Detroit Lion mentally breaks him, resulting in his early retirement.

I have little interest in replacing a top-ten QB that is under contract for three more years, with severe penalties for getting out of said contract early via trade or release. We can revisit the “QB of the future” conversation in 2022. Until then, I’m doing everything I can to build a winner around this wonderful man (on and off the field). Because he deserves it.

Injury concerns aside, the odds are against Tua Tagovailoa ever becoming the level of player Matthew Stafford currently is. When investigating historical draft success, Pro Football Focus gives teams drafting a QB in the top-3 only a 21% chance at landing a “stud” (90th percentile player). Making matters worse, your odds at landing merely a starting-caliber QB are only 56%. Those odds are worth taking…if you don’t have a quarterback. When you already have a borderline-elite one, no thank you.

Don’t get me started on the whole “generational” talent hoo-ha either (you heard me, hoo-ha), which has become one of the more annoying and overused buzzwords in recent years. Tua falls under that umbrella of having generational-type talent – the potential to be the face of the league. By definition, shouldn’t generational mean those players only come around once every 25-30 years? I asked my pals Merriam & Webster, and they concur.

Bob Quinn would have some nerve making Matthew Stafford a glorified dead-man walking in 2020, just playing mentor while keeping the seat warm for Tua in 2021. Not to mention it goes against the logic of the win-now mandate management is under next season. Don’t fall for the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity situation some people are painting this out to be. The next “generational” QB is just around the corner. You can draft him next season. Or the season after that. 

Bonus worst-case scenario:

Lions draft DT Derrick Brown at No. 3 – Failing to move out of the No. 3 slot, then settling for a very good but low-ceiling player like Brown would be a very Quinn-like thing to do. Poor value here. If you need to pick him at 3 to get him, it just wasn’t meant to be. Move along, nothing to see here.

Most Likely Scenario

Lions select Jeff Okudah at No. 3

I have long feared that trading back just isn’t in the cards, despite the mind-numbing amount of rumors, whispers, and rumblings out there (it’s lying season). There are just too many quarterback options out there for any team to justify handing the Lions valuable assets rather than simply taking what the draft gives them. Remember, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston (the “generational” QBs of 2011 and 2015, respectively) are still floating around out there as free agent backup plans for the teams who don’t nab their preferred QB in the draft. 

That’s not to say that taking Jeff Okudah at No. 3 would be a bad selection. Far from it. Some people would criticize it for being a safe pick. But he might also be the best player available AND fills a glaring need. Safe isn’t a negative when referring to a high-ceiling player, it’s a negative when a player has limited upside. What is Okudah’s upside? Jalen Ramsey? Darius Slay? Even better? Not out of the realm of possibility. And as Slay just reminded us, high-level corners command top-dollar contracts, highlighting just how much they are valued in the modern NFL. 

We can dive deeper into the Okudah specs if and when the pick is made. But this is the scenario I see playing out on Day 1, staying put and taking the guy who makes the most sense.

If only he wasn’t a Buckeye.

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