Remember just a few short weeks ago when the Lions were a scrappy, upstart team going blow for blow with some of the best in the NFL? A team that nearly took down the reigning MVP and then a future first ballot hall of fame quarterback in consecutive games? The team that actually caught the attention of the nation (by playing well, for a change), clearly being the victims of poor officiating and bad luck.

They were rallying behind their second-year coach, looking totally bought-in to the new system and playing with heart and effort that jumped off the screen. 

That team…THEY GONE!

This is a bipolar team in every sense of the word. They have a quarterback playing the best ball of his career and a collection of weapons at his disposal that simply overwhelm teams on a weekly basis. It doesn’t even matter that they are one dimensional offensively, that one dimension is so good that teams can’t stop it even when they know what’s coming.

And then there’s the defense. Which is, in a word: offensive 

Stafford wasn’t perfect, but he needs to be

Matthew Stafford statistically improved on his already career-best pace in nearly every aspect. His 406 yards were a season-high, and he now throws for the most yards per game in the NFL (312). He nearly averaged 10 yards per attempt for the second straight game, and now ranks fourth in the NFL in that category (8.6). His three TDs bring his total to 19 for the year, trailing only Russell Wilson (who has played one more game) for the league lead.

 And yet, none of that is good enough to offset the Lions porous defense, who can’t stop anyone right now. Stafford wasn’t quite as great as the numbers would imply, as he missed on a few big plays and threw one INT. But he was still very good, and it simply isn’t fair to expect him to put up MVP type numbers every week just to keep this team around .500. The guy deserves better, and he should be very frustrated with this organization.

Bonus props: Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow

These two were named to Pro Football Focus’ team of the week by grading out as the best players at their positions in Week 9. They kept Stafford largely upright, and even helped the Lions’ skeleton crew of running backs average nearly five yards per carry.

Warning: The rest is negative

There have been so many resources invested into this defense, and the output just doesn’t come close to matching the talent of these players. We can go up and down this roster and talk about all the big contracts shelled out and premium draft picks used to acquire what should have been a top ten unit in the NFL. Hell, that would have been considered a conservative expectation. Some “experts” thought this defense had top five potential, anchored by their star-studded defensive line, which featured elite run stuffers (Harrison), pass disruptors (Flowers), and emerging future stars (Robinson, Hand). 

The Lions got torched by the Raiders on Sunday to the tune of 450 total yards: 171 on the ground, 279 through the air. In other words, Oakland did whatever they wanted, whenever they wanted.  

The secondary issues come secondary

Last week, after the Lions were lit up by rookie QB Daniel Jones in their win over the Giants I put the secondary on blast, giving them their own section in the observations. I highlighted Justin Coleman forgetting how to tackle, as well as Rashaan Melvin allowing a WR named Darius Slayton to look like the second coming of Terrell Owens. I stand by these criticisms, but it’s becoming more clear by the game that the Lions’ inability to generate ANY PRESSURE WHATSOEVER on the quarterback is making life unreasonably difficult on these DBs. 

Darius Slay is doing all he can in spite of this, literally erasing his man from the equation. Maybe he should change his name to “No Play Slay”.

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Take all the time you need

With a half-season worth of evidence, it is abundantly clear that simply waiting around for the pass rush to correct itself isn’t going to work. ESPN grades the Lions as having the worst pass rush win rate in the NFL at 25%, and it ain’t even close. 

NFL Next Gen Stats tracks a metric called TT (average time to throw). In eight games this season, the Lions have allowed their opponent a top ten TT seven times. In week 9, Derek Carr had the most TT in the NFL. The week prior, Daniel Jones had the second most. An da week before dat, Kirk Cousins had da most TT. You get the point. Opposing QBs have time to do some light Christmas shopping before getting rid of the ball.

Line-wack-ers

Once upon a time, this group was (surprisingly) the strength of the defense, picking up the slack for the defensive line in terms of QB pressure, sacks, forcing fumbles, and otherwise wreaking havoc on opposing offenses. Those days are a fading memory, and the one player who appears most to blame is the supposed leader of the unit, former 21st overall pick (that hurts to type) Jarrad Davis.

Pro Football Focus ranks Davis dead last among 90 (!) qualified LBs, earning a bottom 10 grade in run defense, pass coverage, and tackling. You know those early games I just mentioned where the LBs were making an impact? Yeah, Davis didn’t play in those. If people weren’t questioning Bob Quinn’s drafting decisions enough, this PFF bomb drop all but seals the fate of Jarrad Davis being a bust.  

Where do we begin with Matt Patricia?

It’s been a while since I’ve had to file some formal complaints against the head coach, but there is no shortage of things that need to be discussed this week.

Defensive mastermind (*rolls eyes*)

This is what Patricia was billed as when he was chosen as the successor to Jim Caldwell in Detroit. He was so respected around the league that he had a former Pro-Bowl lineman choose to come to Detroit just to play for the “defensive genius”. His system was all about having versatile players who can play multiple roles, making in-game scheme adjustments to keep opposing offenses uncomfortable, and bending but rarely breaking. His players would be nothing if not disciplined and mentally tough, with some of the most physically taxing offseason programs weeding out the weak players who couldn’t handle his demands. 

In year two, with a coaching staff and locker room full of players hand-picked to execute on the vision Matt Patricia wanted to see fulfilled, this team is heading in the opposite direction on the defensive side of the ball. The only thing keeping Patricia off the hot seat is an all-world quarterback and his trusty receivers lighting up opponents on a weekly basis. 

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Risk/reward

There are few things I can’t stand more than when coaches overthink obvious things. We will get to the final play in a minute, which is stealing a lot of the headlines. But well before that, we once again got another curious example of Matt Patricia being strangely unconfident in Matt Prater. 

Patricia opted to punt rather than kick a 56-yard field goal early in the 4th quarter, with the Lions trailing by only seven points. He made the same decision earlier in the year from 58 yards, which I also criticized, because well, Matt Prater is the greatest long-distance kicker in the history of the NFL. He clocks in at 76% from 50+ yards in his career and has only missed once from that range this season (83%). If those numbers don’t calm your anxiety, maybe you need some more B vitamins in your diet.

I don’t like to play the result, but I can’t help it here. The ensuing punt Patricia opted for resulted in a touchback. So you very likely sacrificed three points to gain 19 yards of field position. Was it worth it? Huh? WAS IT?!!

*I’m aware the Lions lost by 7. But trickle-down effect, man. Trickle-down effect.

And then there’s that final play

Darrell Bevell made the call, but I’m putting this in the Patricia criticism section cuz I feel like it.

Talk about limiting your options. Taking every damn playmaker off the field and entrusting the game to your second and third tight ends just screams “making things hard on yourself”. There was absolutely no room for error on that play. Nowhere to go in the event of a busted play or good coverage. Oakland defended it well, and that was all she wrote. 

Patricia and Stafford have been saying they practice that particular play throughout the week, almost as if it’s some kind of a trick play or secret weapon. Just because the game is on the line doesn’t mean you have to bring in a special package or unique personnel to successfully convert. They needed one yard, on a day that they logged nearly 500. No one in the league has been able to stop their offense, and the receivers have displayed uncommonly excellent hands, which is a luxury the Lions don’t often have. 

And just what was Oday Aboushi’s role in this play? He is #76 in the above clip, a backup guard who was forced into action due to an injury to Joe Dahl. He appears to disengage from his blocking responsibility and roll-out, almost as if he was an eligible receiver. This allowed a Raiders defender a direct path to Stafford, who had to force the throw when nothing was there.

Is Aboushi normally part of this play during all those practice reps? It sure doesn’t look like it. Jesse James shed the aforementioned defender, which is the design of the play as he is one of the two receiving options. But Aboushi’s roll out into the abyss served no purpose, left the defender unguarded, and left Stafford dead to rights. 

Long story short, this play required perfect execution, and it didn’t happen. Not all plays require perfection to succeed. With one play remaining to tie the game, you can’t make things more complicated than they need to be. Darrell Bevell has run this offense very effectively this season, but he outsmarted himself here.

No room for error

This result doesn’t end the season, but it does remove all room for error going forward. The Lions missed a golden opportunity to get back into the division race, with Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago (who is a dumpster fire) all going down. It seems the Lions’ knack for pulling out close games, which has been a highlight of the Stafford era, is not carrying over to 2019. But it’s not on the QB. 

Lions vs. Bears preview

Da’Shawn Hand, Tracy Walker, and Miles Killebrew will not play in Week 10 against Chicago, leaving an already underperforming defense short-handed. If the Lions have any shot of getting back to .500 it will have to be on the arm of the quarterback once again.

That quarterback, of course, being Jeff freaking Driskell.

Stafford out

That’s right, Matthew Stafford will miss his first start since 2011, reportedly with broken bones in his back. If there was any hope of the Lions going on a second-half run to pull back into the wild card race, you can pretty much kiss that goodbye. 

Stafford’s season of injustice continues. If you’ve read any of my Lions posts this season, you will know I’ve been championing Stafford’s herculean efforts to keep this team afloat. He is on a career-best pace in pretty much everything except passing yards, and doing it with efficiency and a high degree of difficulty. He has routinely been letting it rip into tight windows and taking kill shots downfield to Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, who just might be the best WR duo in the NFL in 2019. Golladay just said this week that he was happy so many teams passed on him in the NFL draft, because he is the one that gets to catch passes from Matthew Stafford.

There are a few curious things about this Stafford injury that need lookin’ into. If Stafford does have broken bones in his back, why was he reportedly a game-time decision leading up to this game, only to be ruled out hours before game time? He practiced all week, and brushed off questions from reporters when asked about the severity of the injury.

It is now being reported that he isn’t playing because he is not medically cleared to play. We all know about Stafford’s legendary toughness. A quick google will return a laundry list of players and coaches who will attest to that fact. If Stafford had his druthers he would play through the pain. He did so in the second half of 2018, when the team had nothing to play for and the offense was a shell of what it is now. 

If Stafford is being medically forced to sit against Chicago, I can only assume he will be missing more than just this game. And if things go south in his absence, why would they risk bringing him back this season at all? Stafford is still their quarterback through 2022 (barring a trade or release), so risking his future doesn’t make sense.

This is a sad day in what has quickly become a sad season. The first 3 games were a ton of fun. It looks like the final 13 will be filled with broken hearts and broken bones.

But it is Chicago…

If there was any team you would choose to go up against in the midst of losing the face of the franchise and MVP candidate, the Bears might be it. Even the “SOL” people out there couldn’t deny that Chicago has been a far bigger disappointment than the Lions this season, just one year removed from going 12-4 with an all-time great defense. 

Chicago’s problems start at the top, with awful coaching and sub-par quarterback play. Head coach Matt Nagy got exactly what he deserved in Week 8 with his late-game butchering of the clock, leading to a missed field goal and Chicago’s third consecutive loss (their losing streak now sits at 4). 

Meanwhile, QB Mitch Trubisky not only hasn’t improved in year 3, but has regressed. His quarterback rating of 80.0 sits damn near 30(!) points behind Stafford’s, and his 5.6 yards per attempt are good for 32nd in the NFL. Last I checked, there are only 32 teams.

There are a couple of ways to look at this, depending on whether you are a glass-half-full or half-empty type. 

Jeff Driskel is an unknown entity. We’ve never seen him throw a pass for the Lions, though he had some success as a backup for the Bengals in 2018. If he were to pull off an upset of Chicago it would be the equivalent of taking a dumpster – already on fire – and pushing it off a cliff.

From Chicago’s perspective, there isn’t a team on the planet you would rather face to get your QB’s confidence back than the Lions. I checked the box score from the Raiders game again and I actually threw for 300 yards, and I didn’t even play. If the Lions can’t get their defense on track against Chicago, it really doesn’t matter who their QB is. 

The Lions need to find that heart they played with earlier this season that made them national darlings for pushing great teams to the brink. 

Do it for Stafford. 

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