The exercise of breaking down the Detroit Lions game-by-game performance, gauging their playoff odds, keeping tabs on the rest of the NFC North, looking ahead at the schedule…it’s sucking the life out of me. The season was over with nearly half the damn thing remaining. Luckily, the Lions’ 35-27 loss to the Dallas Cowboys unearthed some interesting side-topics to keep me from falling asleep while writing this week’s observations. Let’s wax poetically over Jeff Driskel, talk home field (dis)advantage, and get into some advanced analytics (the devil’s work)!

I’m a creature of habit. I need structure in my life to maintain optimal performance. The Lions and Cowboys played a game of football, and football things happened. Let’s see if any of it means anything.

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Driskel and Ebert

Two thumbs up for Jeff Driskel.

We are now two games into the Jeff Driskel experience, and so far he looks like a potential long-term backup solution behind Matthew Stafford. The volume was way down from his 46 attempts last week against Chicago, but his efficiency was way up. Driskel averaged over 8 yards per attempt, logged a 109.3 QB rating, and had a 3:0 TD to turnover ratio. Those numbers would blend right into a Stafford 2019 game log. He also tacked on over 50 rushing yards and has only been sacked five times in two games thanks to his strong pocket awareness.

Driskel’s efficient line is all the more impressive given the fact that he was the most aggressive QB in the NFL in Week 11, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. His 38.5% aggressiveness percentage (throwing into tight coverage) led all QBs and makes his turnover-free performance even more noteworthy. Effective aggression is an essential attribute for any Lions quarterback, as Matthew Stafford can attest to. Stafford has been the most aggressive QB in the NFL in 2019, partly due to the lack of separation created by Lions receivers. This has been an ongoing issue for years now, but can be trumped by good QB accuracy. Stafford actually has the second-lowest expected completion percentage in the NFL this season (completion probability based on various factors, such as separation), and Driskel was the Week 11 low man in this metric. For reference, Tampa’s Jameis Winston has the lowest expected completion percentage in the NFL in 2019…and he has 18 interceptions. Driskel and Stafford have combined for just 6.

It wasn’t a perfect performance by Driskel by any stretch. He made a couple of bad decisions, leaving some yards on the field trying to force passes when he could have scrambled, but that should improve with experience.

Darrell Bevell seems hesitant to let Driskel show what he can do in the deep passing game, but the results so far are encouraging when he does let it rip (we even saw the return of the Marvin Hall bomb!). Given the strength of the Lions receiving corps, why not open up the offense earlier in the game rather than waiting until they are down multiple scores and trying to mount a comeback? One of the reasons to watch this team the rest of this lost season will be to see if they have found something in Driskel. Give him a chance to prove his worth. It very well could save them a draft pick come April.

Need a fantasy spin? Take this quote from The Athletic’s Jake Ciely, one of the most accurate analysts around:

“Driskel is Josh Allen with a slightly lower ceiling but slightly safer turnover risk…and it’s hard to not put Driskel in the QB1 conversation.”

Credit check

I’m a fair man, an honest man (trust me). I don’t need to tap dance around facts that challenge my opinions. Damon “Snacks” Harrison has been in my crosshairs all season, and while he has come under some criticism lately as the Lions defense has plummeted down the league ranks, you would be hard-pressed to find someone who saw Harrison’s red flags earlier than me. 

Well, Harrison and his run-stuffing brethren held Ezekiel Elliott, behind the Cowboys’ elite offensive line, to 45 yards on the ground. That’s an impressive number, but if you’ve read any of my criticisms of Harrison you’ll know the number I’m most concerned with: the snap count. Here is where the most important takeaway lies. 

Snacks participated in 66% of the plays against Dallas, absolutely obliterating his previous high for the season (54%, how sad is that?). This is much more in line with his snap counts from the previous seasons that saw him earn the title of league-best run defender four consecutive years. This can be taken as a sign that his conditioning is finally approaching the level of “not a slob who can barely peel himself off the ground after a tackle”. Baby steps. He still needs to string these performances together to undo all his duds from the first half of the year, but he finally appears to be trending in the right direction. Did that sound like me giving him credit?

Jarrad Davis has also been much better since I labeled him a clear bust in my Week 9 observations. Not that this was a hot take or anything (I prefer my takes at room temperature), as many people share this sentiment, and he still is greatly underperforming his draft value. But facts are facts: since Davis was put on blast by Pro Football Focus for being the worst linebacker in the NFL through Week 9, he has followed it up with two strong performances.

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I think we know what Jarrad Davis’ strengths and weaknesses are at this stage of his career. He can track down a running back who escapes the first level of the defense, and on the rare occasions he is given an opportunity to blitz he can be a factor in the pass rush. Pass coverage and diagnosing the offense are his Achilles heels.

Can you have two Achilles heels? Word on the street is Achilles had two legs. For the purposes of Detroit Lions analysis, we need access to multiple Achilles heels.

It’s confusing, then, why Davis has so often been put in a position to play to his weaknesses rather than his strengths. He should be playing on instinct and athleticism instead of being diluted by the complex schemes Matt Patricia is trying to implement. Maybe we are heading in that direction, given Davis’ recent success.

Slay it ain’t so

We’ve gone over some bright spots on the defensive side of the ball, which is odd because the Lions were actually torched for a season-high 434 yards through the air. Not terribly surprising, as the lack of a pass rush led to Dak Prescott saying this after the game:

Easy work. So why is this section about Darius Slay, you ask? Good question.

Slay has been absolutely erasing his primary receiver lately, to the point where I actually thought he missed the Week 9 game against Oakland. Turns out, he just wasn’t targeted in the game. He rightfully took to Twitter to defend his play after some dork went for his jugular: 

Here lies Jacob Meyer.

Against the Cowboys, Slay’s objective was to stop Amari Cooper and maybe make a “big play” or two along the way. Cooper’s line was pedestrian: 3 catches, 38 yards. Slay had multiple passes defended, while most of the damage came from Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb. These two each went for over 115 yards, largely on the watches of Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin. 

But on back-to-back plays in the 4th quarter, with the Lions trailing by only six, Slay failed to come up with two interceptions, one of which went through his hands and into Cooper’s for a first down. Dallas would end up scoring a TD on the drive. Jacob Meyer must be rolling in his grave wondering where all the big plays are.

So Slay missed a couple of opportunities for the “big plays” he is named for. Big deal, right? After all, Slay is wayyyyyyy down the list of those responsible for why this season has gone off the rails. What I find interesting is how much he has been talking about his job performance. From MLive’s Kyle Meinke: 

Slay made some plays, no doubt. “Tons of plays”? That’s quite the leap. And what you’re “supposed to do”, at minimum, is atone for the first mistake by making good on the second opportunity. Those could have been game-changing (and potentially season-saving) turnovers, ones that your best defensive player (arguably) has to make. 

So why does it seem like he is campaigning on behalf of his play? Everyone knows how valuable Slay is, and his Pro-Bowl resume suggests the league does too. Slay has always been a talker, but he seems to have ramped it up even more since voicing his displeasure over the trade of his friend Quandre Diggs.

This is a bit of reckless speculation, but he seems to have shifted his perspective on how he is mentally approaching the remainder of the season. Slay is all but guaranteed to hold out next season if he is not offered a contract extension, as he already dipped his toes into those waters this past offseason. This obviously makes him a candidate for extension or a trade, given the fact that Slay is a holdover from a previous regime and was not hand-picked by Quinn/Patricia. 

Comments like the one above make me believe that Slay is prioritizing making sure you know that he isn’t the reason for the Lions’ defensive struggles. Of course, he also wants to be a good teammate. That’s why he continues to hammer home points like “I made tons of plays” but couples them with generic “we have to be better” type stuff. You can’t blame the guy for looking out for number one, it’s human nature. But clearly Slay has been affected by the “business” of football, and now wants to make sure he protects his own business.  

For what it’s worth, as of right now, I hope Slay is re-signed by the Lions and he gets the type of contract he is seeking. Does Slay fit the personality-type that Quinn and Patricia are trying to mold their team in? Probably not. But I would caution them against having too many like-minded personalities in one locker room. Trading or playing hardball with a player as respected and liked as Slay, fresh off of trading Golden Tate and Quandre Diggs, would send a dangerous message to fans (and potential incoming free agents) that players in Detroit are treated only as assets and not people.

Home field (dis)advantage

The Cowboys are “America’s team” (*puke*), and Detroit is in America. We knew there would be a large contingent of Dallas fans at Ford Field. That being said, I didn’t quite expect this:

If you read some of the game recaps that are floating around the interwebs you might come across some talking heads that are calling this scene “embarrassing for Lions fans”, or saying that “Ford Field turned on the Lions”. Let’s take a little inventory on Detroit Lions fan engagement for a moment.

Detroit Lions fans are saints. Not the New Orleans variety, but like the “possessing an exceptional degree of holiness” kind of saints (according to the saint Wikipedia). We have been through a lot, and yet we show up. No reasonable Lions fan who attended this game was there expecting the Lions to run the table and squeak into the postseason. We showed up because that’s what we do. Nothing particularly soul-crushing happened on Sunday, Lions fans are just a little low on energy right now. There is only so much anger/sadness/shock/fear that can be expended before it settles into general malaise and apathy.

The Lions have held a lead in every single game this season and yet sit at 3-6-1. Nine out of ten games have been decided by one possession. We watched five emotionally-draining quarters of football in Week 1 end in a tie. We endured the 99-yard fumble return TD against KC. Then came illegal use of the hands-gate against GB. Then the goal line fail against Oakland. Losing to an incompetent Bears team. It’s been a long season, and we are nowhere near the finish line. 

No Lions fans jumped ship on Sunday. We are gluttons for punishment, and we will keep showing up because deep down we are the most resilient fans in sports. Do you know what one of the key characteristics of a saint’s life is? A life often refusing material attachments or comforts.

Yeah, that pretty much sums up being a Lions fan.

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