The Detroit Tigers and GM Al Avila had a relatively low-stress 2020 MLB Draft experience. They’ve known for nearly nine months that they would be selecting first overall, a privilege they “earned” by going 47-114 in 2019. They also had the advantage of resetting their draft board after Round 1, getting a good night’s sleep, then carefully considering who they wanted in Round 2 without the pressure of the clock. These built-in advantages gave Avila no excuse not to hit a home run (too easy) with his draft haul.

So, did he pull it off?

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To answer this question, we need to consult the experts. I will be breaking down each of the Tigers’ 2020 selections based on their position on some of the more respected big boards in the industry. As a baseline, I will be using the MLB.com (Pipeline) Top 200 Prospect Rankings. The Athletic’s Keith Law is one of the most well-known names in the scouting game, so it’s only fitting to consider his board as well.

The final spot in my cross-referencing exercise goes to FanGraphs’ “THE BOARD”. FanGraphs is a site I frequent for my baseball analytics needs, and their data has helped me win a fantasy league or two over the years. FanGraphs’ Ariel Cohen was recently named the most accurate fantasy baseball expert of 2019 beating out some legends in the game. Since FanGraphs is so reliable at projecting MLB production, I’m curious to see if their draft rankings hold up as well.

As I recently covered when reviewing the Detroit Lions draft class, if you came here for grades you are going to be sorely disappointed. Instant grades are a pointless exercise. [Spoiler alert] Bleacher Report gave the Tampa Bay Rays an A+ for their selection of Nick Bitsko at No. 24. Cool! I’m told that’s the best grade you can get. Too bad Bitsko is a 17-year-old pitcher who many people have only seen throw on Instagram. The MLB Draft is such an inexact science that there will be a ton of names called that will never throw a pitch or take an at-bat in the bigs. We can revisit this class in several years and slap a grade on it if you want.

In place of grades, I will be substituting a clever GIF that sums up my feelings about each pick. Because GIFs are America’s real greatest pastime.

Round 1 – 1: Spencer Torkelson – 3B(?) – Arizona State

MLB.com Rank: 1 | Keith Law: 2 | FanGraphs: 1

The Tigers making Torkelson the top overall pick in the draft was the worst kept secret in baseball since everyone and their mother had that playing out in their mocks. Why? Because chicks dig the long ball, that’s why! Are we still saying “chicks” in 2020? Why am I typing this out instead of having an inner monologue? This is a poor use of word count.

As I touched on in a recent draft talk piece, Torkelson hits bombs. He was on pace to shatter several Arizona State records before the season was nuked by that damn ‘Rona. His final tally of dingers hit across his 2+ seasons at ASU and the Cape Cod League (where boys become men): 63 HRs in just 159 games.

Not all home runs are created equal, which can cause some players without enough raw power to lose it in the transition to pro ball. But one thing that stands out in Tork’s highlights is that the guy hits no-doubters. Just flip the bat and start trottin’.

There’s another part of Torkelson’s game that I love (although it ain’t as sexy as a moonshot): the 134 walks he mixed in across his collegiate career. The kid simply lived on base. In ASU’s abbreviated 2020 season Torkelson finished with an OBP just under .600 and flirted with a 1.400 OPS. I mean, oh baby. He even sprinkled in 9 SBs in his career – not a speedster by any sense of the word, but athletic enough to keep teams honest.

People are speculating why Torkelson was announced as a third baseman when Detroit made the pick. After all, 3B is a position he hasn’t played since high school, as he played a majority of his college games at 1B while sprinkling in some reps at the corner outfield positions. If he can play passable defense at the hot corner it’s only going to increase his positional value. If he can’t, he’s too good of an athlete not to smoothly transition back to where he’s most comfortable. I say try him at third and see if he can hang. They don’t need to be married to this decision and can pull the plug down the road. As we’ll soon discuss, the competition for 3B of the future is going to be hot.

Anywho…defense shmefence. The kid can rake, and that’s why he was the top pick. I got a real good feeling about this young man. He’s got the fire and in-game intensity that I love, but the positive attitude and winning smile that you want in a face-of-the-franchise type of guy. Though I’m not sure anyone likes Tork’s smile more than ESPN’s Karl Ravech, who awkwardly said “you’re beautiful” to him during his post-draft zoom sesh. It was a sloppy exchange that I thought I may have misheard, but Twitter’s ears are always open.

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Torkelson goes by @spennyt on Twitter, but that just won’t do in terms of a cool nickname. I’ve been using Tork out of convenience, but that seems too easy. @Mich_Trumbull put together a Twitter poll of awful nickname ideas including “Torky the Tiger”, and that clearly won’t do.

I’m thinking “Spork” might be the play here. As a father of three and the proud owner of a set of stainless steel sporks (jealous?), these might be the MVP of the silverware drawer central. I mean, if Torkelson can offer a shred of the positional versatility of a spork, things are looking up in Detroit.

Sporks feel right at home in a bowl of mac n’ cheese, but in a pinch can come up clutch on a bowl of cereal (watch out for dribblers). If he’s anything like his new nickname, switching from first base to third should be a piece of cake.

Speaking of, sporks can dominate the cake and ice cream combo at a birthday party.

GIF summary:

Round 2 – 38: Dillon Dingler – C – Ohio State

MLB.com: No. 24 | Keith Law: No. 20 | FanGraphs: No. 29

We didn’t need much help from the expert boards on the Torkelson pick, since most across the industry had him pegged at No. 1, with a 2 sprinkled in here or there (Keith Law included). The rest of the draft is a whole ‘nother ballgame (I’m heating up) since scouts can vary wildly in their projections of what a player will eventually develop into for a variety of reasons (age, competition, tools vs. production, etc).

That being said, our prestigious panel agrees that what the Tigers got in Dillon Dingler was a first-round talent at a second-round price. In baseball, where even second-round picks aren’t guaranteed to advance to the majors – only 44% of the Tigers’ all-time second-round picks reached the bigs – doubling up on first-round caliber guys is a nice way to maximize your draft contact-rate.

Why is Dingler considered a first-round talent, you ask? Well, do you think catchers with double-digit power and speed with more walks than strikeouts in the past two years grow on trees? Of course they don’t. Although Dingler was a Buckeye, so if any catcher grew on a tree it would be him. I hope his game isn’t “bush” league. The Tigers need stars, not “shrubs”.

As to why Dingler fell out of the first round in the first place, I’m going to chalk it up to depth at the position. All of the expert boards in this exercise had at least six catchers ranked in the top-70, while Keith Law led the pack with eight(!) players with catching experience ranked in his top-62 overall. That’s a lot of prospects at a position where offensive production has been a wasteland across all of baseball for some time.

Want a glimpse into the kind of athlete Dingler is? Well, when he wasn’t behind the dish you might have found him patrolling centerfield. He was also off to a monster start in 2020 before the ‘Rona, logging 10 extra-base hits in just 50 ABs and an OBP north of .400.

Here’s hoping we detect some Dingler dingers in the D in due time.

GIF summary:

Round 2 – 62: Daniel Cabrera – OF – LSU

MLB.com: 38 | Keith Law: 53 | FanGraphs: 38

Daniel Cabrera is a guy who was included on many “players to target” lists for Detroit in Round 2. They were referring to the Tigers’ pick at No. 38, and as two of our three expert boards tell us, that would have lined up with his overall rank on the nose. Detroit ended up getting Cabrera at No. 62 instead. That’s called maximizing your draft value.

As we go through this draft class, one thing is beginning to jump out at me: the Tigers put a lot of stock in the abbreviated 2020 NCAA season. Cabrera, much like Torkelson and Dingler, was off to a blazing start in his limited action this year and may have been the guy most adversely affected by having his momentum interrupted by THAT DAMN ‘RONA, because no one expected him to be around in the 60s.

The Tigers nabbed yet another high on-base guy (.466 OBP in 2020) who walks as much as he strikes out and has some speed to boot (6 SB in 73 plate appearances in 2020). While he hasn’t flashed a ton of power thus far in his amateur career, Law says his swing is better than the numbers suggest. So, to turn this pick into the bullseye it has the chance to be, the onus is on the Tigers’ development personnel to take his game to the next level.

But who cares what myself or Keith Law think? Check the video above and you can get the breakdown from Tigers legend and all-around great human Curtis Granderson.

Just look at this picture of my beautiful bride and the Grandyman from spring training circa 2006. Remember when we used to be able to go to sporting events and stuff? DAMN THAT ‘RONAAAA!

At any rate, when Curtis Granderson says “jump” I say “how high?”. If he’s a believer in Cabrera, say no more. Daniel Cabrera = HOF bound.

GIF summary:

Round 3 – 73: Trei Cruz – SS – Rice

MLB.com: 126 | Keith Law: 100+ (NR) | FanGraphs: 119

Reach alert! Sound the alarm!

It’s about time the Tigers made a questionable pick. I was getting tired of all the positivity. Cynicism is my wheelhouse. Time to criticize, baby!

In all fairness, this isn’t like the NFL or NBA. Baseball is a different animal in terms of projecting player development. This far into the draft you’re talking about guys who have a less than 40% chance to make it to the majors. Pretending to be up in arms about reaching for a guy who, by the way, has baseball bloodlines and plays arguably the most difficult defensive position, is a fool’s errand.

That being said, the Tigers appear to have reached a good 50+ picks for Cruz according to most rankings out there. At minimum it’s likely he still would have been there at Detroit’s following pick (102). Which begs the question: who was still available at this slot?

The biggest fish would appear to be RHP Cole Wilcox out of Georgia, Keith Law’s No. 14 overall prospect, who eventually went No. 80. Signability would have made this a risky (impossible?) selection, but if the Tigers could have made the numbers work they would have gotten massive value here.

Perhaps a better direct comp to Cruz would be fellow SS Casey Martin out of Arkansas, eventually taken No. 87 by the Phillies. MLB.com had Martin all the way up at No. 30, nearly 100 slots higher than Cruz. Several outlets also had Martin as a “Round 2 target” for the Tigers. However, I think I have identified some reasons the Tigers preferred Cruz over Martin, despite Martin’s superior draft profile:

*Martin was off to a slow start in 2020. Cruz, like every Detroit pick before him, was lighting it up before (say it with me) THE GD ‘RONA!

*Cruz has a better strikeout profile than Martin, whiffing fewer times despite logging nearly 100 more plate appearances in his collegiate career.

*Cruz, like Torkelson and Cabrera, played (and performed well) in the Cape Cod League. Martin did not.

*The Tigers love Rice (University). Cruz is the ninth Detroit draft pick from Rice all-time.

Martin’s power and speed combination was difficult to pass up, but Cruz simply appears to fit Avila’s 2020 draft philosophy better. Only time will tell if it was the right call.

GIF summary:

Round 4 – 102: Gage Workman – 3B – Arizona State

MLB.com: 73 | Keith Law: 66 | FanGraphs: 90

One quick way to block out the shade thrown your way after a reach: follow it up with a steal.

The Tigers scooped up Torkelson’s teammate at ASU with their fourth-round selection, a guy who no one thought would still be floating around after pick 100. The Tigers were happy to end Workman’s free fall, and drew the approval of Spork…

I love it when teams double up on players from the same school, as I feel the unseen benefits are something that can’t be quantified. Keeping your stars happy and promoting a strong clubhouse is important in modern sports, and holds particular weight in Detroit which isn’t exactly known as a sexy free-agent destination.

Of course, the Tigers didn’t draft Workman simply for being boys with Torkelson. He comes with his own very particular set of skills, skills that he has acquired over a very long [college] career. Sorry, random Liam Neeson tangent.

Workman was the superior defensive 3B at ASU, which pushed Torkelson over to 1B during their time as teammates. Workman also played SS in the Cape Cod League, while Keith Law says “he’s got the arm and agility to stay at third base and could potentially move to second depending on the needs of the team“. Long story short: the Tigers will find somewhere to play Workman so long as the bat checks out.

Herein lies the problem: Workman is the only Detroit pick whose offensive production didn’t quite match his tools. Despite possessing good raw power it certainly didn’t translate over his 800+ collegiate plate appearances, as just 18 balls cleared the fence. He really struggled in his Cape Cod action as well (where they break out the lumber). He also has by far the worst SO/BB ratio of any Detroit selection in 2020.

All that being said, guys are gonna have some warts when selecting after pick 100. That’s why they are still on the board in the first place. If Workman puts in the work (man) to tighten up his plate discipline and maximize his power potential this will turn into the steal it has the potential to be.

GIF summary:

Round 5 – 132: Colt Keith – 3B – Biloxi (HS)

MLB.com: 87 | Keith Law: 100+ (NR) | FanGraphs: 117

The Tigers’ lone High School selection came with their final pick at No. 132. In a draft marred by even more uncertainty than a typical year would provide, Avila clearly prioritized seasoned college hitters with as much projectability as possible.

Want a glimpse into how difficult it is to project what an 18-year-old kid will be five years into the future? I thought this quote from The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen was pretty telling:

“Another interesting point on Keith: He says he had serious interest from about 20 MLB teams. About 15 viewed him as a potential two-way player. At least one team wanted to draft him solely as a pitcher. A handful of other teams, including the Tigers, wanted to draft Keith primarily as a hitter.” 

Twenty teams wanted to acquire this young man’s services, yet they couldn’t come to a consensus on whether he should be a pitcher, hitter, or both. The Tigers are focusing on the bat, thus completing the sweep and drafting 100% hitters in the 2020 draft. Not a bad plan for an organization already stocked with high-upside arms.

Keith appears to be worth the late-round dart throw, as the Tigers once again got a top-100 talent who slipped through the cracks into Round 5. For some bonus hype, we turn to the fine folks at Baseball America, who had Keith just outside the top-50 on their board.

Interestingly, the Tigers announced Keith as a 3B, meaning half of their draftees (Spork, Workman, Keith) will be developed at the hot corner. At the end of the day, these kids are all athletic enough to play multiple positions and will settle in wherever the opportunity fits. No need to overanalyze the stockpiling of 3Bs just yet.

The Keith selection capped off what appears to be a really nice draft for Detroit. They are getting mostly A’s on their report cards across the industry, which means…absolutely nothing. Remember, the Tigers should have been expected to crush this draft given their advantageous position. Now comes the hard part, developing these kids into major league quality hitters.

GIF summary:

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