Let’s get some cold, hard, ugly truths out of the way right off the jump. The 2020-21 Detroit Pistons just finished with the second-worst record in the NBA at 20-52, spending a sizeable chunk of the season in the league cellar. Their prized rookie Killian Hayes missed over half the season with a torn labrum in his hip, missing over 40 games worth of invaluable developmental minutes. They failed to flip Blake Griffin’s bloated contract for any return whatsoever and instead opted to pay him to hit the bricks. His ghost will make $30 million in Detroit next season (can his ghost dunk, tho?).

Sounds like yet another lost and miserable season in a sports town full of ’em. That is, until you pop the hood (car analogy, cuz, you know, motor city and stuff).

The anatomy of a losing season

Part of what makes the final record far from an indictment of this franchise and its future is the fact that this was all part of the plan from the outset. The front office acknowledged the fact that this was a ground-up rebuild…er…retool….uhh…restore (settle on a damn re-buzzword already) before the season started. There were no mid-season pivots. No delusions of grandeur. Tom Gores’ favorite “P” word (playoff) was never mentioned and was instead replaced by a much more attainable and culture-setting “C” word (compete).

GM Troy Weaver and Dwane Casey drove home the fact that this team was going to compete every night regardless of their place in the standings or who took the court. The competitive loss is a rebuilding art form. Enhanced draft lottery odds are the pot-o-gold at the end of the losing rainbow but you’d rather not get mopped up on a nightly basis trying to “win” that prize. And this team mastered the art of the competitive loss like no team I’ve seen in this city.

Here are some fun facts that illustrate how this team may have actually been closer to the play-in tourney than the league basement in terms of their quality of play:

• The Pistons lost more than four consecutive games only once this season, that being the five in a row they lost to finish the season to lock in their share of the top lottery odds. The Houston Rockets had a 20-game losing streak, which is the opposite of impressive, but equally pathetic was Orlando having five different losing streaks of at least 6 games. Oklahoma City lost 23 of their final 25 games, which included a 14-game losing streak as well as a niner to finish the season. Yet the Pistons somehow weaseled their way below the Magic and Thunder by one and two games, respectively, in the final standings. Riddle me that.

• Ok, so that first one wasn’t exactly a ringing endorsement. I was just highlighting the magic trick they played to sink to the bottom of the standings. But how about the fact that the Pistons had a NET rating (point differential per 100 poss.) of just -4.5, which doesn’t even land them in the bottom five. Their closest neighbor in these rankings? The 31-41 Sacramento Kings (yes, I’m making a favorable comparison to the Sacramento Kings). Had the Pistons won merely 28 games (a much more accurate reflection of their not-terribleness) instead of 20 they would have finished with the 8th worst record in the NBA and would have little to no chance of landing a franchise-altering talent in the draft. Instead, they own a share of the top odds and didn’t have to embarrass themselves on the court to earn that luxury.
• The Pistons’ first seven wins this season all came against eventual playoff/play-in teams, making it difficult for good teams to overlook them on a nightly basis. All of these wins came before the tank picked up steam and the “injuries” and rest days started to pile up, which began around mid-February. This is encouraging for the future to know that, while far from a finished product, the core pieces of this rebuild like Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart have the ability to hang with good teams whenever it is Weaver and Co decide to shift into win-now mode.
• Of Detroit’s 52 losses, only eight came by more than 15 points. That’s it. Less than twice a month this team was blown out. A team full of rookies, reclamation projects, and a few vets sprinkled in. For reference, eight different playoff/play-in teams got obliterated more times than the Pistons this season. I repeat, eight different teams that are playing in the post-season got smoked more often than a 20-52 Pistons team that was playing guys named Frank Jackson and Tyler Cook 30+ minutes down the stretch.

That final bullet point leads into what this season was really about: player development and meaningful minutes.

The “D” stands for development

With so many competitive games in the books we were able to learn a lot about the makeup of the young players on this roster and their outlook for the future. Here are my takeaways.

Killian Hayes

The torn labrum he suffered back in January was a major speed bump in Hayes’ path to becoming the point guard of the future. However, he did look much more comfortable on the court after his injury sabbatical. Mostly because he couldn’t have looked more uncomfortable to start the season, with Dwane Casey throwing him straight into the fire as the starter. It was painful to watch him play alongside the early season version of the Pistons, which actually featured an experienced rotation with Griffin, Grant, Plumlee, and Delon Wright starting alongside Hayes with Derrick Rose playing a 6th man role. The sample was small (7 games) but Hayes had more turnovers (17) than made field goals (13) in that initial stretch, which isn’t ideal. He rarely ever looked for his own shot, deferring to a fault. And when he did shoot it, it wasn’t going in.

Here is something I wrote in my notes about Killian in the game in which he suffered his hip injury on 1/4 against the Bucks. “1stQ: Killian all-net 3 from corner. 1 min later from same spot, air ball and looks deflated”

Those were real-time, handwritten game notes from a Mead Five Star Advance 5 subject notebook. Where else you gonna get that kind of analysis without a paywall?

In hindsight, maybe a hard reset for Killian wasn’t such a bad thing.

Fast forward to April and we started to see some of the things that the scouting reports advertised when he was selected 7th overall in the 2020 draft. He can make every pass on the court and he knows it, which leads him to trying stuff like this…

He began to show what he can do in the midrange and floater game with some nice touch near the basket. From distance his shot looks ok, but the results were gross (sub 28% from 3). An 82.4 FT% leaves me hopeful, albeit not confident, that he can develop into a respectable 3pt shooter. He also has a knack for getting to the rim but often with no intention of finishing, instead launching himself under the basket and kicking out to an open teammate. To his credit, most of these passes do find an open shooter, but if he’s passing up open layups to do so…just cut it out and put the ball in the hole. You’re right there.

Kevin O’Connor and The Ringer put together a nice breakdown of why we should be pleased about Hayes’ overall development. But buyer beware, O’Connor might be playing damage control here. He once made the argument that Hayes should be in consideration for the top selection in the 2020 draft. Hence the title of his video: “Killian Hayes Is Not A Bust”. Whoa, Kev. No one said he was. Take it easy.

For what it’s worth, I’ll put Killian’s eventual bust percentage at 50%, but we don’t need to rush to apply this label. Let’s say that by the end of his rookie contract there is a coin flip chance that we will be regretting that pick in hindsight. How’s THAT for a Warm Take?

Gun to my head, I’d lean towards Hayes not paying off his No. 7 pick price tag.

Isaiah Stewart

Stewart didn’t even begin the season in the rotation and it took until March for him to consistently see 20+ minutes per night. By season’s end Stewart had his own merchandise line and was benched because he played too hard and risked blowing up the tank.

You goddamn better believe I re-Tweeted that shit with no shame.

Stewart led all NBA rookies in rebounds and blocks. Clean and easy stats there. He also finished second among rookies in Player Efficiency Rating (16.4), second in True Shooting (59.7%), and led all rookies in Win Shares (4.0). His per/48 rank in WS actually landed him in the top 60 in the league, while no other rookies finished in the top 100.

But the thing I like most about him was how he immediately made his presence felt with his physicality, toughness, and high motor (city). Opponents are going to hate going against this guy for years to come. Montrezl Harrell, Markieff Morris, and Dwight Howard are among the players he scuffled with this season. He even got ejected for intentionally elbowing an opposing Blake Griffin in the side of the head, just two short weeks removed from them being teammates. Thought we were bros? Take this bionic elbow Dusty Rhodes style to your dome.

Stewart is cut from the Bad Boys/Goin’ to Work cloth. Just makes too much sense for him to have landed here. Easy to root for. Easy to watch. I heart this guy. But let’s cool it with the Ben Wallace comparisons…

He’s Ben Wallace with a jumper.

This was Troy Weaver’s most scrutinized pick in the 2020 draft. Early returns are that it was also his best pick. One might say he has an “eye for talent”.

Saddiq Bey

Dude woulda smashed the all-time rookie 3pt record in a season of pre-pandemic length. Bey finished just 12 threes shy of Donovan Mitchell’s rookie record of 187 set in 2017-18 despite playing 729(!) fewer minutes. He also did it at a significantly higher clip (38.0%-34.0%). What else really needs to be said? Home run pick. Keep it moving.

Weaver made a mid-draft trade of Luke Kennard and a bunch of second-rounders to acquire the No. 19 pick and snag Bey. D’ya know what that tells me?

Seems like this Weaver guy has an “eye for talent”.

Saben Lee

The real PG of the future?

That might be me venturing into hot take territory, AKA the forbidden land. But I’d be lying if I told you Lee isn’t a more comfortable watch than Killian Hayes after year one.

The guy doesn’t have any remarkable skills, but he finds a way to get stuff done despite his limitations. His three-point shot looks wonky, yet it fell at nearly a 35% clip. His AST/TO ratio put Killian’s to shame. The Pistons had a grocery list of point guards this season and Saben Lee managed to log more minutes than anyone at the position that finished the season on the roster. The front office has plans for Lee. What role he eventually settles into is far from decided, but there’s just something about the guy. I’m excited to see more.

Lee was another draft day trade up target for Weaver. Do his eyes ever lie? No. No they do not.

Pistons player potpourri

In addition to the rooks, there were a LOT of dudes that logged minutes for Detroit this season. Some noteworthy, others notsomuch. Here is a collection of rapid-fire thoughts on the rest of dem boyz.

Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose

Thank you for your service. The Griffin and Rose eras won’t be looked back upon fondly in Pistons lore, but I liked both of these guys character-wise. Griffin’s 2018-19 campaign was probably the best individual season by any Pistons player in the past decade. Had they done more winning you could argue it was one of the best seasons by a Detroit player ever. Rose was really fun to watch and bought into his role as mentor for the young guards he played with.

Thank you for your service honorable mention: Delon Wright. Was as good as advertised in his cup of coffee with Detroit, and played well enough to get flipped at the deadline.

Jerami Grant

Wasn’t in love with his signing initially, but he quickly won me over. One of the things I found interesting about Grant’s season is when you look back and compare his numbers to his past two seasons in DEN and OKC, his offensive efficiency actually took a major hit. Such is life when you go from a role player to a number one option, right? But I’m not holding this against him yet. Grant is a smooth player that can score from anywhere and fills up the box score effortlessly. Maybe his sweet spot is somewhere between the 8.9 shots per game he was taking last year in Denver and the 17.3 he got off this year.

I also noticed Grant wearing Grateful Dead and Kill Bill shirts on the sidelines of the final two games of the season. What an interesting fella!

Mason Plumlee

My least favorite offseason acquisition by Weaver ended up being….the Pistons best player? There’s an argument to be made (led the team in many advanced stats, plus two trip-dubs), but at the very least Plumlee is proving to be a bargain at the 3yr/$25 million it took to acquire him. My initial concerns were that he was going to soak up developmental minutes for the youngsters and that he was good enough to raise the team’s floor but his age didn’t fit the rebuilding timeline. Turns out none of my concerns mattered. There ended up being plenty of minutes for the young bigs once Griffin was bought out and Plumlee ended up being one of the key ingredients in the competitive loss cocktail.

Hamidou Diallo

The Pistons said Svi (Mykhailiuk) ya later when they had the opportunity to swap him for Diallo via mid-season trade with the Thunder. Diallo just fits the Weaver mold to a tee. Athletic freak. 6’5″ but secretly a baby pterodactyl (6’11 wingspan). Just 22 years old and hasn’t fully broken out yet due to a logjam at the position in OKC. The only thing missing from his game was a consistent deep ball, and then he went and flashed 39% long-range upside in his 20 games in Detroit. Knocked down four triples en route to a 35pt game on 5/4. All that’s stopping Diallo from being a core piece of this franchise moving forward is if another team shells out some cash and lures him away (restricted FA this offseason).

Josh Jackson

He earned the right to have his “reclamation project” status revoked with the way he played this season. Though oddly enough, his numbers with Detroit look very consistent with what he’s done over the course of his four years in the league. Perhaps it’s because he was essentially a clearance rack find for the Pistons and no longer carries the weight of 4th overall pick expectations. He seems tailor-made to be an instant offense off-the-bench guy with the way he attacks the basket with reckless abandon. It’s weird because even when his body looks out of control his shots rarely are. I don’t know how he gets them to fall, but I won’t question it.

Sekou Doumbouya

It really bothers me that I have watched nearly every second of Sekou’s 1623 career minutes and still have no idea if he is good at basketball. Maybe that fact in and of itself means that he isn’t? Yes, I’m going with that mindset. This guy sucks. Get him outta here.

Ahh, what could have been.

Frank Jackson

He may have been a two-way player, but there’s no two ways about it, Jackson can put the ball in the hole. Over 40% from three over a 40 game sample in Detroit. That skill can find a home on any team. How much Weaver will have to pay to keep him is the only question.

The eye for talent strikes again.

A little lotto luck?

This season was nothing short of a masterclass of how to lose games without losing the fanbase or the morale of your young players. But regardless of the fact that Detroit shares the best lottery odds with Houston and Orlando, the fact still remains that we have no evidence that the mythical lottery ball sucker thing accepts ping pong balls with Pistons logos on them. There is a 72.5% chance that their draft position will slip relative to their place in the final standings. Their most likely draft slot is currently 5th (27.8%) which is nearly double the odds of landing the top spot (14.0%). Falling out of the top four this season would be a demoralizing blow, as there appears to be a tier drop after Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs and Jalen Green. There might be a different kind of tier drop (the kind falling from my eye) if we once again wind up in worst-case scenario land (6th).

Troy Weaver made it a point in his postseason presser to harp on how much he hated being the architect of a 20-win team, saying “I don’t like the way it looks. I don’t like the way it smells. I don’t like anything about it.” and vowing that it won’t be happening again next season. So we might as well make it count while we’re down here.

Lottery gods, hear my plea. Reward this team for a well-executed season. From last year’s draft to free agency to a fly collabo on a new Martin themed merch line, this organization is making all the right decisions.

Just grab our balls, dammit.

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