The Detroit Pistons kick off their 2019 season tonight against the Indiana Pacers. This is a team that has been stuck in mediocrity, averaging 40 wins over the past four seasons. Blake Griffin, their best and most important player, is already banged up and will miss all of October, possibly more. Not exactly an ideal start. What can we expect from the ‘Stones this season? Let’s discuss.

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The “Big 3” is still here

I use that term very loosely, as I am not a fan of Andre Drummond or Reggie Jackson. But that is how this team has always been marketed, ever since acquiring Blake Griffin in 2018. As far as Jackson is concerned, I think most people would agree that he doesn’t belong in that triumvirate. With Drummond, I might need to convince you. Let’s start with Reggie.

Reggie Jackson

We head into yet another season with this bum as the starting point guard. He is a point guard in name only, as Blake Griffin is the facilitator of the offense when they are both on the court. Jackson operates at a slow pace and often disappears from the offense. He has long been the reason for the Pistons’ chronic slow starts, routinely finding themselves having to dig out of first-quarter deficits with his lackadaisical play and inability to push the pace. 

One of my biggest indictments of Jackson admittedly has some bias attached. You’d be hard-pressed to find a bigger Ish Smith fan than me, the Pistons backup PG for the past three seasons. I loved his uptempo play style, as well as his upbeat personality. He was a much needed veteran leader and jolt of energy needed to offset the slow play of Jackson and Drummond. Smith is now a Washington Wizard, as the Pistons have opted to kick the tires on the Derrick Rose experiment.

The Pistons overall record in 2018-19: 41-41.

Their record in the 26 games Ish Smith missed due to injury: 7-19.

Why is this an indictment of Jackson? Because Ish Smith is not a special player by any stretch of the imagination. He doesn’t have anywhere near the physical talents of Reggie Jackson. But this record tells you all you need to know about the importance each player had to their team’s overall success. 

The best thing about Ish Smith is that when he was on the court, Reggie Jackson typically wasn’t. 

The clip below is an example of what I’m talking about. Blake Griffin was trying to raise the standard for his team in this interview, on and off the court. But Jackson’s clown personality powered through and awkwardly interrupted the whole thing. Blake should’ve just chokeslammed him then and there.

Andre “Bum”mond

It’s season number 83 for Drummond in Detroit, yet he somehow just turned 26 years old. I’ll be a bit nicer to Drummond, because he has made some important improvements to his game in recent years.

Drummond has somehow fixed his historically bad free throw woes, averaging nearly 60% from the line the past two seasons. He has also developed a nice mid-court pick off maneuver on the opposing team’s transition pass, leading to the highest steals per game (1.7) of his career in 2018-19. But that’s about where my list ends of things I like about Drummond. 

Drummond’s claim to fame is his prolific rebounding ability. He has led the NBA in rebounding in three of the past four seasons, clocking in at 15.6 per game last year. Without a doubt, these numbers are impressive. The issue I have is that this is the only thing he is great at. Not only that, but in my opinion, an individual’s rebounding proficiency is one of the least important statistics in terms of translating in the win-loss column. 

This is a bit hard to translate or quantify, so bear with me. I’m not saying rebounding isn’t an important part of the game, because it is. But there are so many individual rebounds over the course of a game, as well as a season, that literally have no bearing on how good a player is. Take a missed free-throw where the offensive team doesn’t contest, or a long missed three-pointer that bounces right to a six-foot guard. Not to mention the vague nature of tip-ins and taps to teammates that can be recorded as rebounds.

I can’t tell you how many times I have said to myself “I haven’t seen Andre do anything in this game”, only to check the box score to find that he had 16 rebounds. This happens all the damn time. It’s like clockwork. 

Now, if pulling down 16 rebounds is just one part of a larger repertoire of skills, that’s a different story. But Drummond is a below-average big man in so many other ways that it offsets his rebounding talents.

He has no jump shot whatsoever, from any distance. In an effort to modernize Drummond’s game for the modern NBA big man, head coach Dwayne Casey gave Drummond the “green light” to shoot threes in 2018-19. He reportedly attempted a thousand per day in practice for years, and only needed the right coach to unleash his hidden talents. How did that experiment work out?

Five total threes for the season at a 13% clip.

The big O says “no”.

His post-game also leaves much to be desired. There are times when he looks like he is guessing rather than actually processing where he is in relation to the basket. His shot could go in perfectly or barely catch the rim. For best results, his offensive involvement should be limited to offensive rebounds and putbacks. That’s it.

Defensively, the numbers are there. A combined 3.4 blocks+steals is nothing to shake a stick at. But the eye test shows you that Drummond is an average defender in an elite defender’s body. Stretch bigs like Brook Lopez who can extend to the three-point line can expose Andre’s inability to defend the perimeter. Athletic freaks like Joel Embiid can also punish Andre, physically and mentally.

And finally, my last complaint about Drummond is his attitude. He’s not a bad guy by any stretch, but he doesn’t have the “goin’ to work” ethic that has been the mantra of some of the great Pistons teams of the past. Drummond goes to work when he feels like it. Terms like “engaged” and “motivated” have always gone hand-in-hand with Drummond, calling into question his commitment to winning and taking his game to the next level. 

To tie this back to Jackson, it feels like these two piggyback off one another’s personalities. The clip below shows what I mean.

This stuff might be charming if this was a winning organization, but it hasn’t been for Drummond’s 8-year Pistons tenure. Yet it never seems like frustration sets in with these guys. Removing one (or both *fingers crossed*) of Drummond or Jackson would improve the mental makeup of this team moving forward. 

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How far can Blake take them?

Blake Griffin won me over in a big way last season. His leadership and toughness are exactly what this team needs to offset some of the other personalities (see: above) and playstyles on this team. The way he transformed his game, from above the rim finisher to facilitator and field general, says a lot about just how skilled he is. His ability to punish defenders under the basket on one play, then stretch out to the three-point line the next (2.5 3s per game last season) makes him a handful for opposing teams to defend. He was two made 3s short of Detroit’s all-time single-season record, despite playing seven fewer games than record-holder Allan Houston.

That being said, Griffin is already saddled for the beginning of the season with knee and hamstring soreness. The Pistons limped to the finish line after Griffin was injured late last season, then were promptly shipped out by the Bucks in the playoffs.

This team will only go as far as Griffin can take it, as Drummond cannot be the centerpiece of a winning team. Griffin played 75 games last season, his most since 2014. He will certainly be under that number this season, given his current status. If he can suit up for 60 games, they might be able to tread water in his absence enough for another playoff campaign. If he goes under this number, no chance in hell.

Notable newcomers

The Pistons front office found a way to make some noteworthy additions to this roster, despite having very little wiggle room financially.

Derrick Rose

I’m beginning to like this signing more and more by the day. This experiment could totally backfire, as Rose is one of the most injury-prone athletes in recent memory. Rose hasn’t played 60 games in a season since 2016-17. But this is a high-upside gamble on a relatively inexpensive contract (2 years $15 million), and another high-character locker room presence. How he and Luke Kennard perform as the focal point of the second unit will have a huge impact on whether the Pistons can weather the early storm sans Griffin.

Biggest question (besides health): Can Rose maintain the career-best 3 point percentage he established last season (.370)? 

Bonus biggest question: Can Rose’s superior play push his minutes into the high 20s, and Jackson’s down in the process?

Tony Snell

Acquired in an offseason trade for Jon Leuer, this 3 and D wing will presumably be the starter at small forward. This appears to be a sneaky good low-key pick up for Detroit. He will be a guy who doesn’t command the ball much on offense but will be there when you need him and score with efficiency. Strictly a three-point shooter, his points per shot attempt would have led all Pistons last season. 

Biggest question: Can he increase his volume while maintaining his efficiency? Snell only averaged 17.6 minutes per game on a loaded Bucks squad and attempted fewer than 5 shots per game.

Markeiff Morris

Another seasoned and well-traveled vet signed to provide scoring off the bench. Morris will be thrust into the starting power forward slot with Griffin out to start the year. Morris does a little bit of everything, much like his twin brother and former Piston Marcus, so the transition between the two should be smooth. They also look similar.

Biggest question: Can Morris’ three-point percentage return to the levels of his days in Washington? Morris shot over 36% from 2016-2018, before slipping back to 33% last year.

Late arrival: Christian Wood

I won’t pretend to know anything about this guy first hand. But he did make the final roster after making a preseason splash. The 24-year-old had a strong finish in his late-season audition in New Orleans last year and has scrapped his way onto this Pistons roster. It won’t take long to find out what he brings to the table, as he will likely see the court some in the absence of Blake Griffin.

Biggest question: Can Wood prove to be a higher upside big than Thon Maker off the bench? Maker brings some upside of his own, but lacks strength and can be tossed around by thicker opponents (not to mention Maker’s 0 for 12 [gross] playoff performance from distance).  

Kennard’s next step?

The consensus around the inter-webs is that Kennard is the “sleeper” on this team. The player most likely to take the biggest leap in development. His teammates seem to agree, with Derrick Rose calling Kennard a young Kyle Korver, and making it his personal mission to develop his game. Kennard will likely provide the bulk of the bench scoring for the Pistons, along with Rose. He could easily start for this team, but Casey believes a reserve role will maximize his on-court opportunities. 

Kennard only logged 22 minutes per game last season, a figure that will surely go up considering his strong second half and playoff showing. He is a sharpshooter who shot 43% from distance after the all-star break. He was one of the only Pistons who showed a pulse during the Bucks series, knocking down 9 of 15 threes, proving he could handle the bright lights. If he increases his offensive aggressiveness, he could become one of the most important players on this team.

Outlook: Hazy

There is a huge variance in terms of how this season could shake out when all is said and done. Purely from a personnel standpoint, this is an improved team from a season ago. They shouldn’t be fighting for a playoff spot in the final days like in recent years. Think 44-46 wins and a #7 seed in the eastern conference.

But there are so many things that could go wrong this year, and it starts with the health of Blake Griffin. While unlikely, a slow start could trigger a midseason fire sale, or at least render Detroit open for business in terms of shopping their players around at the trade deadline. However, Owner Tom Gores has been unwilling to take this route in the past, despite several recent non-playoff seasons. He claims to be fundamentally against tanking, preferring instead to work his way from the middle-of-the-pack to the top.

Does this guy look like a loser to you? Didn’t think so.

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