Detroit Lions Season Expectations: Losing with Pride
The more things change, the more they stay the same?
Change might be an understatement when it comes to describing the Detroit Lions in 2021. This franchise is starting a rebuild (so tired of that word) from the ground up. New head coach. New GM. New QB. But most certainly, at least in the 2021 win-loss column, the same old Lions. There’s just no way to make a reasonable case for this team even sniffing the postseason. And it’s best for the mental health of Lions fans to accept that fact on the front end before things start to get ugly. Because they will.
It’s going to be strange not hanging on every gut-wrenching loss and incompetent officiating screwjob like in years past. How disappointed can you be when you know it’s coming? That being said, there are still reasons for fans to be invested in this season. Let’s go down my personal checklist.
Campbell’s culture crusade
Exactly zero games that count have been played yet, but I’m taking the bait on Dan Campbell. I’ll look like an idiot when the losses pile up, the schtick gets old, and he gets run out of town in 3-5 years. Or when he gets thrown in the joint for removing another man’s kneecap with his teeth. But he’s hitting all the notes for me of what I think a leader needs to look and sound like in this city (see: not a condescending, obese asshole).
The last coach in this town thought he could win by outsmarting everyone, even though he didn’t prove to be all that smart. That just isn’t how it’s done in the blue-collar capital. Arrogance and a refusal to adjust to your circumstances are the hills Matt Patricia chose to die on. Au contraire, Dan Campbell has ascended the ladder through a combination of hard work (farm boy), building relationships (Sean Payton’s right-hand man at multiple stops), and earning trust (rather than MF-ing players and intimidation tactics). He has former teammates, staffers, and pretty much anyone he has encountered in his professional life coming to bat for him and the way he gets a team to believe in a like-minded goal.
Two things I have noticed about Campbell recently have stood out. First, the amount of access the guy has given to media outlets. Here’s a recent bio from The Athletic that has a lot of perspectives and stories from former teammates, and another earlier this summer from The Ringer that is more of a deep dive inside the mind of the man himself. Both are well worth a read. I just don’t recall another coach in this town being as open as Campbell has in such short a time. He comes across as a man with nothing to hide and very comfortable in his own skin. That authenticity will help him earn the trust of players that eluded Matt Patricia.
Second is the fact that, according to Lions beaters Nick Baumgardner and Chris Burke, Campbell and GM Brad Holmes have displayed an “almost stunning level of cohesion” over the course of the offseason. They have been preaching from the start in nearly every presser that the two are cut from the same cloth and share a common vision for the franchise. But of course they are going to say that. That’s common coach/GM-speak practice. But for that synergy to come across by independent observers at practice and training camp? That adds a layer of much-needed credibility.
It might be tricky to measure Campbell’s effect on the Lions culture this early on when I fully expect them to be one of the league’s bottom feeders. But some things should be apparent through the screen. How hard the team competes, the body language of the players, and keeping the season drama-free in terms of off-field incidents and sound bytes will be some of the things I will be keeping an eye on. But so far, I’ve been enjoying the “Dan Campbell experience”.
They grow up so fast (hopefully)
Detroit is young. The second youngest team in the NFL, to be exact. To show just how drastic of a turnover this is for the Lions, each of the Quinn-Tricia squads the past three seasons fell between 22nd-27th in average age. Ten different Lions over the age of 30 from last season’s opening roster were either traded or not re-signed. Had it not been for TE Josh Hill’s surprise retirement which forced Detroit to sign old pal Darren Fells (36, oldest on roster by five years) they would have taken the crown as the league’s youngest team. Would have felt nice to be No. 1 at something.
Credit to Campbell and Holmes for playing the long game in terms of roster construction. They could have hung on to journeyman vets like Breshad Perriman and Corn Elder, who upon signing were penciled in for prominent roles on this team, on name value alone. But come cut day, the guys that produced are the ones that made the team. Even if you’ve never heard of some of them (AJ Parker, Tom Kennedy, etc).
This can be a true getting your feet wet/working out the kinks year for the under-25ers, with little pressure tied to the outcome of games. In the new 17-game era, the opportunities for Penei Sewell and the incoming rookies to learn on the job will be there for the taking. And let’s not forget Jeff Okudah, who in many ways is starting from scratch in his own right. His rookie season was bookended by injuries and he was brought into the league by a front office that was eating its death row meal.
The health and development of Sewell and Okudah, specifically, will play a major role on the timeline of this rebuild. I’ve become a fan of Jeff Okudah the person based on the way he carries himself off the field and the work he does in the community, particularly for the kids. He’s been put on bust-alert by casuals given the premium draft slot attached to his name but I don’t think that’s fair to him just yet. With the departure of Matthew Stafford, I’m not sure there’s a player I’m rooting harder for than Okudah to prove the doubters wrong.
Wash your hands after you Goff
You’d think that me being a Stafford apologist (though the SOL-ers should be the ones apologizing to him) would mean that I have an anti-Goff bias. I don’t think that’s true, though sometimes those things can be unconscious. I just don’t think he is that good, and nowhere in the realm of Stafford ability-wise. The terms of the Goff/Stafford swap tell you all you need to know. The fact that they were in the same relative tier before the trade in terms of public perception was baffling to me. With the roles, teammates, systems, and media spotlights reversed we are going to learn very quickly what I have been preaching for years: Matthew Stafford is that dude.
Did anyone catch Cris Collinsworth during the Thursday Night DAL-TB opener drop this piece of in-depth analysis…
Stafford wasn’t even playing and he felt the need to share that nugget.
We’ll give Collinsworth a break there. I mean, Stafford has only been in the league 12 years. And it’s not like Collinsworth gets paid to know stuff about football or anything. The most confusing part is that he said his opinion of Stafford changed after watching all of his games from last year, which wasn’t even that great by his standards. It certainly didn’t hold a candle to his 2019 campaign, where he played half a season of MVP-level ball before getting hurt.
#Collinsworthless
I don’t see a scenario in which Jared Goff rediscovers his Pro Bowl form from 2017-18. He just doesn’t have the resources he had in LA. Best-case scenario for me is that Goff is an effective game manager that doesn’t turn the ball over and keeps Detroit in games with clock management and long drives. Worst-case is that the defense routinely forces Goff to play from behind and air it out, which will end badly every time. Goff needs the run game that Stafford never had, or this team is going to be painful to watch. The Lions had the luxury of being bailed out by Stafford’s 4th quarter comebacks for the past 12 years. Those days are long gone.
Goff seems like a good guy. And now he might just be the biggest underdog on a franchise that defines the word. There is a potential redemption story here that will be intriguing to follow. I hope Goff plays well enough not to embarrass himself, but not so well that he tricks Brad Holmes into thinking he is the long-term answer. He is signed through 2024, but the team could get out after 2022 with moderate cap penalties. Regardless of how Goff plays this season, the Lions should be looking to address their long-term QB solution with a premium pick in 2022.
Prediction time!
As we stand heading into the season, Vegas has the Lions over/under win total at 4.5. You can lock in the under at Draftkings at +115, so it looks like much of the public thinks the Lions will go over this number.
I disagree. Jonny Pessimistic says 3-14 will be the damage this season, enough to claim the No. 2 pick in the draft.
Just for fun, I’ll try to identify which three games they will win.
Win: Week 8 at home against Philadelphia.
It would be fun if the Lions opened up the Campbell era with a win at home against the Niners like Jeff Risdon of LionsWire is predicting, but that’s getting too cute for my blood. Frisco is a Super Bowl contender with either of their QBs.
I have Detroit starting 0-7 – just a long enough streak to get the 0-17 discussion started on sports radio – before breaking the seal against the Eagles. The Lions have won three straight against Philly dating back to 2015.
Win: Week 12 at home against Chicago (Thanksgiving)
In a matchup that pits the league’s (second) youngest team against the league’s oldest, here’s your feel-good win of the season. Campbell restores some pride in the Thanksgiving tradition with a win over the Bears, whom they play for the third time in four years on turkey day (why????).
Win: Week 18 at home against Green Bay
This win comes with the assumption that the Packers will have the division locked up and will put health first. The rights to the first-overall pick could be on the line here, making it appointment television. A largely meaningless win in the finale could have frustrating consequences when the next “generational” QB everyone is talking about is within your grasp.
Subscribe to The Warm Take to receive email alerts for new content
Follow @TheWarmTake on Twitter (I promise I won’t clutter your feed with what I’m eating for breakfast)
