I’ve been busy. A new career venture working with the academically underprivileged youth of Detroit while supporting three of my own demon spawn perfect angels in their virtual learning journeys has the Warm Take household in a time crunch.

But d’ya know what I can always squeeze in some time for?

DETROIT LIONS FALSE HOPE BABYYYYYY!

Then again, my cold lifeless eyes have seen some terrible things. Unspeakable things. I have memories that cannot be repressed, for the wounds are too fresh and the visions to vivid, all thanks to this sad franchise. My rational brain tells me that for every reason for hope, there is an equal and opposite reason for…NOPE!

There are so many storylines surrounding the team, the league, and the general state of mother earth that the range of outcomes for the Lions in 2020 is pretty wide. There are plenty of rounds in the chamber of arguments no matter if you are team SOL or team Kool-Aid.

Here is a collection of thoughts that I deem relevant when trying to figure out just what the hell is going to happen when the team I hate to love kicks off their season Sunday against Chicago.

Let’s play a little game called reasons for hope, reasons for nope!

Reason for hope: In Stafford I trust

There are few things I know about the Detroit Lions. But one of them is that they have a top-10 quarterback.

We don’t need to spend much time here, because I’ve professed my love for Matthew Stafford ad nauseum over the course of this site’s history. Here is some Stafford propaganda you should have read already. Though propaganda would imply that I am biased or pushing an agenda. Nothin’ but facts, data, and the old peepers have formed my opinion of the criminally underappreciated signal-caller in Honolulu Blue.

He was so good (so good, so good, so f’n good) in his injury-shortened 2019 campaign, which was the most efficient season of his career. Let’s frame it this way: His full season floor in 2019 was Pro Bowl. His ceiling? MVP consideration.

SOL food for thought…

Here is something for the Stafford detractors (because those are real people) who probably threw up in their mouths a little bit at the words “MVP consideration”. And I can make my point without using any scary numbers (dumb guys hate those)…

Losing Matthew Stafford last season literally flipped the Lions from a middle-of-the-pack, wild card-ish team into the worst team in the NFL.

Back to 2020. Having an elite quarterback with 12 years of NFL experience in a returning system that carved up the league in 2019 could be a massive advantage for the Lions this season in particular. The COVID-shortened offseason could adversely affect teams with young QBs, new QBs, new offensive systems, or any other host of organizational changes more than teams that are returning to business as usual. Reflecting this potential advantage, the Lions ranked 11th in The Athletic’s Team Continuity Rankings. We’ll have to keep an eye on whether that is a worthwhile metric, but for what it’s worth the top-6 is a who’s who of the best teams in the NFL.

The Matthew Stafford/Darrell Bevell led Lions offense was a well-oiled machine in 2019. Detroit won’t miss the lost preseason as much as some other teams, and you don’t even need to leave the division to find a couple of ’em. The Chicago Bears just announced their starting quarterback, like, five minutes ago (Mitch Trubisky if you’re nasty) while the Minnesota Vikings have new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a whopping 15 player draft class who will be learning on the fly without the benefit of a dress rehearsal.

Reason for nope: The ‘Rona effect

Winning football games in Detroit is hard enough without an assist from this damn pandemic, which I am sooooo done with (GET THESE KIDS IN THE CLASSROOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!).

Only five NFL teams will have fans in the stands (albeit at a reduced capacity) to start the season: Kansas City, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Miami, and Cleveland. Note that the Lions are not one of said teams, which is not surprising given the state’s conservative approach to handling the virus.

While this is a smart call from a public health and safety perspective, it certainly ain’t good for creating a home-field advantage. And Detroit needs every advantage it can get. Say what you will about long-suffering Lions fans, they show up and make noise just like fans of competent teams do. The Lions-Chiefs Week 4 heartbreaker last season was the loudest I have ever heard Ford Field, and it nearly (and should have) resulted in a win over the eventual Super Bowl champs.

There are some silver linings here. Unlike Vegas and Washington, who have ruled fans out for the entire 2020 season, the Lions are taking a wait and see approach, only ruling out spectators for the first two games. Their third home game, believe it or not, isn’t until November 1st. That leaves plenty of time for that miracle Trump promised to come and wipe out COVID and restore order to the world.

In all seriousness, we can’t predict what is going to happen that far down the road. But in the immediate future, it does look like the Lions will get an assist from aunt ‘Rona. Green Bay and Arizona, Detroit’s opponents in Weeks 2 & 3, also fall into the “no fans for first two games” category, so the Lions will theoretically benefit from those empty stands.

Will there be a tangible difference between an empty stadium and one that has fans at a 20% capacity? That’s tough to say. But there is one game further down the road in which the Lions have unquestionably lost some leverage.

The Lions were originally set to face the Jaguars in London this season as the “road” team, a plan which went up in smoke when the league canceled all of its international games for 2020 due to travel concerns. The game will now be played in Jacksonville on 10/18 – a true road game. As far as fans go, Jacksonville is allowing fans in the stands from the jump, and they are doing so at the largest capacity in the NFL. Based on the way Florida has handled the pandemic, it will likely look like spring break in the stands by the time October rolls around. Hope the Lions bring their hazmat suits.

Granted, needing a scheduling quirk to beat the Jaguars (who ain’t real good) is the sign of a sorry franchise. Nevertheless, what was arguably the Lions’ easiest game of 2020 (and a likely win on an international stage) got just a wee bit more difficult with the neutral-road shift.

To sum up, the pandemic has thrown things into a tizzy for all teams, and it’s hard to quantify what that means. But losing a neutral site “road” game, combined with the state’s cautious approach to all things COVID, makes me believe that virus-related changes will end up being a net negative for the Lions relative to the rest of the league.

Reason for hope: Matt Patricia’s stock up?

Someone come and check my temperature.

Head Coach Matt Patricia, my biggest question mark (literally, heh heh) surrounding this team, has me believing that he might be turning a corner in the “leader of men” department. Because that has been…an issue during his Detroit tenure. That might be putting it lightly.

Darius Slay, Quandre Diggs, and other former players have publicly aired their dirty laundry after leaving the team in recent years, and butting heads with the head coach has been a common denominator. While I have been reluctant to put all of this blame on Patricia, since there are also players who vouch for his particular brand of coaching, his inability to connect with all players rather than just his players has no doubt been a dividing presence in the locker room.

But like any player can grow and improve in his role, so too can a head coach. On August 25th, the Lions made headlines when they became the first team in the NFL to cancel practice in response to the shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha. In light of the latest act of police brutality and social inequality, Patricia opted to give his players the day to release their emotions and frustrations in a team meeting that turned into an impromptu therapy session.

What resulted was a meeting that Matthew Stafford described as “incredible” and “powerful”. The team unity that was strengthened that day could easily translate on the field just as much, if not more, than any practice time that was missed.

Patricia doesn’t deserve a medal for canceling one practice, nor does this act resolve him of his previous failings to connect with players. But the NFL has been so resistant to outward displays of protest or individual expression. For Patricia to have the awareness to get out in front of this particular issue and break from the status quo, knowing it was in the best interest of his players, shows some serious growth.

The Lions made headlines for all the right reasons by canceling that practice. Some good PR is just what the doctor ordered for Matt Patricia. This act of simply doing the right thing could pay dividends for this season and beyond if he can make his players (and potential free agents) believe he cares more about them than the final score.

Need an outside source to support the theory that Matt Patricia’s stock is up? Well, gambling guru Sean Koerner of The Action Network recently endorsed putting some duckets on Patricia to win NFL Coach of the Year at +4000. Obviously, those odds rightfully place him in longshot territory. But the fact that there is betting value here when Patricia spent most of 2019 on the hot seat is a sign that things are trending up.

Reason for nope: Bob Quinn’s stock down

All the instant graders who were quick to shower GM Bob Quinn and the Lions with praise and A-minuses after their 2020 draft haul back in April are silently getting their erasers out…and we haven’t even played a game yet.

Should’ve joined the no draft grades mafia. I tried to tell ’em. Click here for a draft review that has aged better than most.

In the latest edition of “for the love of god stop sinking precious resources into an easily replaceable position”, the Lions released 5th round RB Jason Huntley into the waiver stream with the hopes of him clearing and returning to Detroit’s practice squad. Instead, the Philadelphia Eagles sniped him, thus officially flushing the toilet on pick No. 172 for Detroit.

This is one instance where I will get out the pitchfork and side with team SOL. File this under gross incompetence on the part of Quinn. Anyone who says anything along the lines of “hey, it’s only a 5th round pick” hasn’t been keeping tabs on just how much of a return you can get on this valuable commodity.

Remember Quandre Diggs, former Lions Pro Bowl safety turned disgruntled ex? The return the Lions received for his services when he was shipped off to Seattle last season was a 5th round pick. Are you familiar with new Lions safety Duron Harmon of The Warm Take’s “best offseason move for Detroit” fame? The Lions plucked him and a 7th rounder from New England in exchange for that very same 5th round pick they received from Seattle.

Of course, you could also put the phone away and simply draft a player at that slot who fills a team need, of which the Lions have plenty. Given the fact that Bob Quinn has drafted or signed approximately 2,938,127 running backs in his tenure in Detroit shows that he is behind the times and hasn’t yet processed that you can find RBs between the couch cushions.

Signing Adrian Peterson for a six-pack of Hanes T-shirts? Good use of RB resources. Sticking your head in the dumpster and coming out with Bo Scarborough? Good use of RB resources.

Spending a 5th round pick on a running back who wasn’t even included on many top-300 draft boards after already taking D’Andre Swift in the 2nd round?

Yes, I’m going to be that guy: Keep an eye on Jets punter Braden Mann, who the Lions could have taken at the slot they took Huntley. Quinn opted to be frugal at the least sexy position in football and let longtime Lion Sam Martin walk in free agency. He could have replaced Martin with Mann, the top punter in the 2020 class, but decided he’d rather light pick No. 172 on fire instead.

I have a bad feeling that Quinn’s willingness to let any geek off the street (regulators, mount up!) handle punting duties this season will backfire sooner than later. Again, this isn’t about losing Huntley. This is about the infinite other ways Quinn could have used this pick by keeping his eye on the long-game, rather than falling in love with a guy’s 40-time.

And who cuts a 5th round pick before Week 1? Come on, mann (pun intended).

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