Detroit Lions Predictions Roundup (pt.2)
Welcome to Part 2 in my Detroit Lions predictions roundup series as we enter Week 1 of the NFL season. I’m auditing the opinions of major outlets to make sure the takes are just the right temperature. Please check out my About page to get a sense of who I am and what this site means to me as I lift the curtain on this project. Also, if you have any decency in your cold, black heart, please check the icons in the sidebar to follow my social media accounts.
The Athletic
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I would consider myself a fan of this site. Jake Ciely has been one of my preferred fantasy experts for years. Renee Miller also has an excellent series titled “Brain Games”, which details how psychological biases can affect fantasy sports. I fancy myself a bit of an amateur psychologist, logging many hours of practice inside my own head. Kind of like an unpaid internship type of deal.
The Prediction
Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic recently put in his two cents on what he expects from the Lions this season, and it ain’t much. In fact, the overall tone of the Lions analysis here is, in a word, dismissive. He even went with a time-honored classic, comparing the current Lions with failed teams of the past (same old Lions [SOL], for the layman). I know this team doesn’t exactly conjure up national excitement, but you can do better than “They haven’t won a playoff game since 1991”.
The official prediction from Kapadia is 6-10. A slightly improved defense and a stagnant offense are the only real reasons given. Interestingly, he has the rest of the NFC North going a combined 26-22 (the 10-6 Vikings being the only division team to make the postseason). In this scenario, there are wins to be had in the division. I’m struggling to find points I like here. Strugglinggg.
Kapadia’s lack of confidence in the 2019 Lions mirrors the overall perspective that many of the writers share at The Athletic. A recent poll of 44 of the site’s national and local NFL staff reveals that only one chose the Lions as their “surprise” team for the upcoming season. The Panthers and 49ers, two other non-playoff NFC teams from last season, finished first and second in this poll, respectively. On the plus side, no one on the panel chose the Lions as their “biggest disappointment”.
The Warm Take
We’ll start with the defense. What exactly does a slightly improved defense translate to with this team? Top-5 in the league? They were already knocking on that door last season after acquiring “Snacks” Harrison midway through the year. Take it from the much smarter folks at Pro Football Focus…
A top-5 defense would give this team a nice floor, while improvements on the offensive side can give it some upside. I’m not sure what Kapadia is basing his “same offense as last year” opinion on. The TE depth chart consists of an entirely new crew from the previous season. I already covered my opinion on this position group in my previous article, take a look if you are so inclined. The Lions also had a quarterback reportedly playing with a broken back, which isn’t ideal. How’s that for a hot take?
If 6-10 were to happen, it will have to come with some major injuries at the wrong positions. They have depth along the defensive line, as well as in the secondary. They could survive with injuries at these positions. I mean, they can damn near field a team of just corners, based on who survived cut day. But the Lions are thin at several key positions. Quarterback (obviously), offensive line (that’s an old bit), and wide receiver come to mind. It is much more likely that injuries, not “SOL”, contribute to a disappointing 2019 season for the Lions.
Being overlooked and underestimated isn’t the worst position to be in. When that outlook is paired with a talent level that is clearly capably of exceeding expectations it can lead to a team that is viewed as scrappy. It’s always easier to support a team in this mold, rather than a team that is perceived as good but fails to play to expectations.
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