Detroit Lions Predictions Roundup (pt.1)
Welcome to The Warm Take! Thank you for dropping by, I very much appreciate it. Please visit my About page to learn what this site is about and why I created it. This is a passion project and I am extremely proud to have visitors who want to read my thoughts and opinions. Please also take a moment to follow me on social media via the links in the sidebar. I truly appreciate your support to help me get this thing rolling. In my debut series, I will sift through some Detroit Lions predictions for the upcoming season. We will start with ESPN, where I uncovered a couple hot takes that needed some cooling off.
ESPN Football Power Index
Why not start with the worldwide leader in sports? ESPN, as well as some other outlets who ran with the headline, had some fun poking my beloved Lions with a stick earlier this week. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) had predicted the team going 4-12 (including an 0-11 start) this season. The FPI is a measure of offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency, and its team rating system is used to predict game outcomes. Looking under the hood revealed that this was merely the result of one of the 20,000 FPI simulations that ESPN ran for the upcoming season. So what do we do with this 4-12 prediction? Toss it in the trash and move on, I’d say.
Whoa, that was intense. Well, that’s what happens when people pile on this team and their fans for no reason. It hurts enough to be a fan of this team. I don’t need misleading headlines or “random” season simulations to stir up more anger, sadness, and confusion in my soul. Now, if we take the totality of the FPI simulations, all 20,000 of em’, we get a much more reasonable season projection of 7-9, with a 17.2% chance to make the playoffs. Now that sounds more like it, given the fact that Vegas has the Lions’ over/under win total set at 6.5 for this season.
ESPN NFL Nation
Let’s add some human prognosticators to the ESPN prediction mix, shall we? People are smarter than computers anyway.
Maybe not. But at least we get more rationale instead of just “beep..boop…still rebuilding”. Michael Rothstein of ESPN’s NFL Nation goes bold and drops a 10-6 bomb right on top of that silly FPI algorithm. This record will come on the backs of the much improved defensive line, which he says might be the best in the NFL. Strong words. A bounce-back season is also in the cards for Matthew Stafford, according to Rothstein, due to the overhauled TE room.
I agree with of the above points, outside of the final record. The D-line should be a major strength for this team. The TE play should be much better. I actually think the TE improvement is more vital to this team’s success than the defensive line. Levine Toilolo, Luke Willson, and Michael Roberts combined for 63 targets last season. Not catches, targets. Fewer than four pass attempts per game to the TE position is not good for business. There was just no threat whatsoever among this lot. Nowhere for Stafford to look when the pressure came (particularly post-Golden Tate). Stafford should benefit tremendously from some fresh blood among that position group. Particularly fresh blood with the kind of upside that T.J. Hockenson and Jesse James bring.
For a 10-6 record to happen this team is going to have to start the season strong and steal multiple games in that front-loaded schedule. A win in Arizona Week 1 is an absolute necessity, given the barrel of a gun they will be looking down in weeks 2-6 (LAC, @PHI, KC, @GB). If this team is 3-4 nearing the middle of the season, as they were last year, we might see wheelin’ and dealin’ Bobby Quinn start looking toward the future and acquiring assets much like they did last year when they shipped out Golden Tate. Remember, they were only one game out of first in the division at that time. Lions GMs tend to have good job security.
Hey, 10-6 would be awesome. The personnel upgrades definitely have this team moving in the right direction, and an improvement on last year’s 6-10 record should be in the cards. But a four-game improvement? That is a massive leap. A lot of things have to break right for this team for that prediction to come true, and things typically don’t where this franchise is concerned. I find it damn near impossible to find ten wins on this schedule when breaking it down game-by-game, which is required in the prediction exercise. A 1-2 game improvement, I can get behind.
Thanks again for reading my debut article, and stay tuned for part 2!
Subscribe to receive the latest articles straight to your inbox
@TheWarmTake on Twitter
