Detroit Lions 2020 Draft Recap & Review
For your Detroit Lions, the 2020 NFL Draft started with a bang and ended with a whimper. They came out of the gates predictable by landing Jeff Okudah, which was largely expected, but what happened after that was anything but. Let’s review the 2020 draft by going down the line and meeting the new Lions.
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Remember, I have a strict “No Draft Grades” policy here at The Warm Take. Why? Because grading future performance is inherently stupid. Don’t agree? Just check out this article where the Yahoos over at Yahoo! Sports poke fun at their own awful 2016 draft grades in retrospect. At least they have a sense of humor about it. For other outlets, pooping on the draft grading exercise is considered sacrilege.
To fill the gradeless void I will be GIF-ifying my general thoughts on how the Lions did with each pick. My main focus will be on sound drafting psychology (check my Draft Do’s and Don’ts for the things I was looking for in an effective Lions draft) and whether they maximized their value at each selection. For this analysis, I will be using a combination of cold hard ProFootballFocus rankings, the industry-wide Consensus Big Board, a deep scouting dive from The Athletic’s Dane Brugler, and, most importantly, The Warm Take’s signature blend of logic, reason, and silliness. There is a lot to dive into, so let’s go to work.
Round 1 – 3: Jeff Okudah – CB – Ohio State
Consensus Big Board Rank: 3 | PFF Rank: 4 | Brugler: #1 CB
I already gave the Okudah selection the good old-fashioned Warm Take master’s thesis-length treatment (check it out here). Long story short: The need was high, the value was appropriate, and taking Okudah at No. 3 (i.e. not trading back) was always the most likely Day 1 scenario (check the tape). Could have likely nabbed him with a trade back to No. 6, but you can’t always get what you want. No issues. Keep it movin’.
GIF summary:
Round 2 – 35: D’Andre Swift – RB – Georgia
Consensus Big Board Rank: 22 | PFF Rank: 74 | Brugler: #2 RB
Just like that, things got real interesting. If you read my Round 2 Wish List, you already know how I feel about this pick. If you didn’t, here’s the gist:
“With each passing year, running backs lose draft value since it is by far the easiest position to cobble together…There are a few moves that would make me break out the pitchfork, and taking an RB in Round 2 is one of them.”
That ugly PFF ranking tells you something about how the position has become devalued in the draft. They had Swift as the No. 1 RB on their board, yet an overall rank of just 74. Combine that with the fact that the Lions just drafted Kerryon Johnson two years ago in the second round (and traded up to do so), and while he has had a laundry list of injuries, he’s also been pretty good when healthy (4.5 YPC in 18 career games), which he was when we last saw him.
The Lions also have a cringe-worthy history of early-round RB busts. All of the following gems were drafted between rounds 1-3 since Barry prowled the Silverdome: Ameer Abdullah, Mikel Leshoure, Jahvid Best, Kevin Smith, Brian Calhoun, Kevin Jones, and Reuben Droughns. Part of my soul just died.
And did you happen to see the mid-draft trade the 49ers made? They shipped out Matt Breida, a 25-year-old back who has averaged 5.2 YPC over the past two seasons, to Miami for a 5th round pick. I would have happily parted with one of the Lions’ 5th round selections for Breida, rather than spending a premium pick on Swift.
I gotta be honest though. After sleeping on it…I don’t hate the Swift pick as much as I initially did. While I was hoping for a pass rusher such as Iowa’s A.J. Epenesa in this spot, they ended up addressing that position with their following pick. At least Swift offers elite receiving skills out of the backfield, something they lost with the departure of JD McKissick (and Theo Riddick before him). Swift definitely represents a dynamic weapon for my boy Matthew Stafford to utilize through the air.
Swift’s player comp according to PFF is a “more explosive” Pierre Thomas (of 2000s Saints fame). That sounds a whole hell of a lot better than that collection of bums the Lions whiffed on in the past two decades. My problem with this pick is definitely more philosophical, and not a knock on the player. I’ll gladly take the L if he turns out to be a stud.
GIF summary:
Round 3 – 67: Julian Okwara – EDGE – Notre Dame
Consensus Big Board Rank: 61 | PFF Rank: 28 | Brugler: #12 EDGE
Probably my favorite pick of the Lions’ draft. This is the guy that will (hopefully) help the Lions turn around their league-worst QB pressure rate from a season ago. While Brugler isn’t as high on him, getting Okwara at No. 67 was an absolute coup according to PFF, which they deemed one of their top-10 picks of Day 2. He is thought of as a high-risk (season-ending fractured fibula in November), high-reward pass rusher, which I am all for in the mid-rounds. When you go with a low-risk stud at the top of the draft, you can better afford to take a chance on high-ceiling players later.
But just as important as his potential on the field is his desire to be in Detroit in the first place. Check out the following clip…
Julian now joins his brother Romeo in Detroit, who has quietly been one of my favorite unheralded Lions over the last two years. Yes, their names are Romeo and Julian. That’s adorable. A journey that began in Lagos, Nigeria has now led to them both playing professional football in Detroit, Michigan. Bet they didn’t see that coming.
I love the family ties here, as well as the fact that the Lions brought in three players from the same school (Ohio State) in this draft class. In case you haven’t read the paper lately, not wanting to play in Detroit is what the cool kids are doing these days. The family connection and the college bonds the Lions brought in with this draft class should make for a really strong locker room, which has been one of the biggest issues of the Matt Patricia era.
GIF summary:
Round 3 – 75: Jonah Jackson – G – Ohio State
Consensus Big Board Rank: 99 | PFF Rank: 40 | Brugler: G #5
Jackson appears to be your Graham Glasgow replacement at right guard. The Lions traded up 10 spots to get Jackson, giving Indianapolis picks 85, 149, and 182 (they also received No. 197 in the deal).
The first thing we must do in any pick swap is to consult the draft trade value chart to make sure the price was fair. Trading up oftentimes leads to overpaying since the team clearly has their eyes set on one specific player. The chart says the price was legit, so the trade receives my blessing. I’m sure that will help Bob Quinn sleep at night.
What is there to say here? It’s a guard. It’s not a sexy pick, but it was a necessary one. Quinn appears to favor going cheap at guard, given the fact that he chose not to resign Glasgow, opting to let him walk in free agency. That was over a month ago, and yet after a very active free agency period, the Lions entered the draft with one of the highest allotments of remaining cap space in the league. The money was there to resign Glasgow…and still is. To me, this shines a bright light on how much this regime values this specific position, relative to others. No big contracts, no premium picks.
Once upon a time (2016) Glasgow was a third-round pick. Now he’s out and the Lions have drafted someone else in the third-round to take his place. Jackson is another PFF darling who was named (along with Okwara) one of their top-10 picks of Day 2, even going as far as to say Jackson “should be able to replace Graham Glasgow seamlessly”. After losing four OL starters from 2018, Ohio State plucked Jackson away from Rutgers to play with the big boys. All Jackson did was make first-team All-Big Ten in his first and only year in Columbus en route to the College Football Playoff. Sounds good to me. Just keep Matty Staff upright and we’ll be straight.
GIF summary:
This marked a turning point in the draft for me. The Lions looked like they were sitting pretty after Day 2, coming away with a stockpile of high-level talent at three positions of need, while mixing in a high-upside luxury pick with the addition of Swift in the backfield. But alas, it appears Quinn was just on a bit of a heater, as the Lions came crashing down to Earth on Day 3.
Round 4 – 121: Logan Stenberg – G – Kentucky
Consensus Big Board Rank: 134 | PFF Rank: 114 | Brugler: G #8
That makes back-to-back guard selections. Not sure how Bob Quinn felt this was the most pressing need at this stage of the draft, as they still needed to find reinforcements for the pass rush as well as a wide receiver.
In terms of the player, Stenberg is regarded as a nasty guy with penalty issues. Racking up penalties is definitely not an area the Lions need any help with, as they are historically great in this area. He’s also pretty good at football too, but the attitude and discipline issues are what set this guy apart from the pack. Can you teach a guy not to be a hothead? I wouldn’t count on it. Can a guy naturally mature out of it? Maybe.
Stenberg played exclusively at left guard at Kentucky, a spot currently manned by Joe Dahl in Detroit. Is Stenberg good enough to challenge the incumbent starter in year one? Are we perhaps headed to another bizarre guard rotation like we saw last year in Glasgow, Dahl, and Kenny Wiggins (who was recently brought back BTW)?
Worth mentioning is the fact that Detroit traded back 12 spots into pick 121 (adding pick 172). At pick 109, the Raiders (the team Detroit traded with) also took a guard – John Simpson – who just so happened to be the No. 2 overall guard on Brugler’s position rankings. Stenberg was No. 8, grading out a full two rounds worse than Simpson. Let’s hope the consensus is right about Stenberg, because if Brugler’s breakdown is correct, the Lions traded into a far inferior player at the same position. This is aside from the fact that they, you know, just took a damn guard last round.
Just way too many high-upside receivers and pass rushers still available for me to sign off on this pick.
GIF summary:
Round 5 – 166: Quintez Cephus – WR – Wisconsin
Consensus Big Board Rank: 167 | PFF Rank: 148 | Brugler: #30 WR
In one sentence: Quintez Cephus was my least favorite pick of the draft.
On first inspection, it might seem like they got appropriate value here for Cephus. He went pretty much right in the range PFF and the consensus had for him. But what I uncovered in the scouting breakdown really has me underwhelmed, and there were other receivers who made much more sense for this team.
I really wanted the Lions to draft a speedy receiver who runs crisp routes and makes himself available. Despite how good Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones obviously are, they are point-of-catch studs, relying on athleticism and body control to pay the bills. Neither are any good at creating separation, as each occupied a spot in the bottom-3 in terms of average separation distance in 2019 (Golladay being dead last). This has made Matthew Stafford’s life more difficult than it needs to be in recent years. It’s one of the many reasons I think he is underrated. He delivers the ball into such tight windows, simply because he has to. Big-bodied receivers have been the Quinn-era calling card, and I would have loved to see the Lions pick up a player with a skill set that compliments what they already have.
Instead, they went out and drafted Cephus, who clocked a not-so Flamin’ Hot 4.73-40 at the NFL Combine. That lack of speed definitely shows up in his film too. Other knocks on him include unrefined routes and a case of the dropsies. So he’s basically the opposite of what I was hoping for.
There were a slew of players still on the board that fit what I was looking for in a receiver, including K.J. Hill, who fell about three rounds further than he should have in this draft. Who is K.J. Hill you ask? Only the all-time leader in career receptions at Ohio State. No big deal. Take Brugler’s WR#30 rank for Cephus, cut it in half, and that’s where he had Hill ranked at the position. Snagging a top-15 receiver outside the top-150? Yes, please.
But that’s only one man’s opinion, right? Well, PFF came off the top rope, naming Hill one of their “steals of the draft” at his final selection spot of 220(!). And finally, the consensus rank of 118 for Hill, which was damn near 50 spots higher than that of Cephus. Not to mention that Hill would have made this a four-Buckeye class, adding to the locker room chemistry.
Cephus sounds like a slower and less athletic version of what the Lions already have, with sketchier hands. Awesome. Looks like Matthew Stafford will have to be perfect again in 2020. He can do it, because he is.
GIF summary:
Round 5 – 172: Jason Huntley – RB – New Mexico State
Consensus Big Board Rank: N/A | PFF Rank: N/A | Brugler: #36 RB
The only thing worse than using a premium pick on a running back? Running it back (get it?) three rounds later, on a guy that was only included on the deepest of draft boards.
Look, I get it. Huntley ran a 4.4-40 at his pro-day. He returned five kicks for TDs in his collegiate career. And for the cherry-on-top…he averaged 7.1. YPC in 2019. Those are mouth-watering morsels.
Then why was he ranked outside the top-300 by so many analysts? It’s fine to take a player like this if you think you have uncovered a diamond in the rough. But there is a time and a place for each selection. Want to take a seventh-round lottery ticket on a guy who isn’t projected to be drafted at all? Be my guest. If you absolutely can’t risk missing out on “your guy” (pro tip: not getting “your guy” is OK) go ahead and spend a sixth on him. But taking Huntley in the fifth-round represents the single biggest draft no-no of them all: reaching.
The quickest way to nuke a guy’s “sleeper” potential? Overpay for it. This is a classic case of thinking you are smarter than everyone else. Reality check, you aren’t. Attaching a fifth-round pick to Huntley now creates expectations. His draft position all but guarantees he will make the roster, whereas a sixth or seventh-round player can be cut if they fail to impress in the offseason.
I’ve heard some who defend this selection claiming that Huntley can potentially be used on gadget plays or in other creative ways to get the ball in his hands in space. Now, Darrell Bevell has done a fine job as Lions Offensive Coordinator, but when was the last time anyone described a Lions offensive attack as “creative”. Never?
Now, you may think I’m being overly critical of such a late-round pick. But this draft was wackier than a typical one, given the fact that the world was shut down in the middle of draft prep season. This led to some out-of-left-field picks as early as round one, and the amount of early-round talent still available at this stage was much higher than normal. We’ve already talked about K.J. Hill (still there), but how about top-10 EDGE Bradlee Anae or top-20 WR James Proche?
This spot was also the Lions’ last opportunity to take the top punter in the class, – Braden Mann – after losing Sam Martin to free agency (they have the cash!!!). Quinn is trying to dumpster dive at this position, given the fact that he picked up a UDFA, Arryn Sippos, after the draft ended to compete with another UDFA, Jack Fox. I have a feeling he will regret not resigning Martin when real football returns.
To sum up…fine player – wrong spot. Have to maximize your value at each selection. Save the dart throws for the end of the draft.
GIF summary:
Round 6 – 197: John Penisini – DT – Utah
Consensus Big Board: 276 | PFF Rank: 104 | Brugler: #23 Interior DL
We have officially entered dart-throw territory now, so I’ll try to tighten things up.
No issue with the Lions trying to shore up their interior depth, considering they are seemingly headed into the 2020 season with Danny Shelton and Nick Williams as their starters at DT. Both came to Detroit in free agency, and are solid if unspectacular names. It’s actually a bit surprising they didn’t address this position sooner, but they were too busy drafting running backs all draft.
Big disparity between the PFF rank and the consensus here, so it’ll be interesting to see which one holds up. The consensus rank suggests he might not make the opening roster, while the PFF rank suggests he could play an immediate rotational role. I’d call this an effective use of a dart.
And now, in honor of his unfortunate name, a barrage of John Penisini sexual innuendos, expertly crafted from his actual scouting report:
Can’t handle being double-teamed. Loves getting below his man. Not considered a bull (rusher). Eager to plug the hole. Big, strong hands and knows just where to put them. Keeps coming after initial impact. Stamina to go all day.
GIF summary:
Round 7 – 235: Jashon Cornell – DL – Ohio State
Consensus Big Board: N/A | PFF Rank: 249 | Brugler: #35 DL
If this pick tells us anything, it’s that Quinn and Patricia learned a lot about the Buckeyes entire program while scouting Jeff Okudah, even down to the fringe prospects. They go almost entirely off the board again with this pick, which is no biggie in the seventh round.
They are taking a shot on pedigree over production here, as Cornell was a highly touted high school recruit (No. 1 in the state of Minn.) but took four years to earn consistent playing time. That stuff can be hard to come by at a football powerhouse. They are betting on a program they trust here, and there isn’t much to lose if Cornell doesn’t pan out. Familiarity does have added value in this particular draft season. Damn that ‘Rona.
GIF summary:
Overall, I’m not as high on this draft haul as the draft graders out there, who are mostly giving this class A’s (like PFF does) and B’s. For me, when you have the fourth-most draft capital going in, a top-five haul should be expected, not something you are hopeful for. This class does not scream “top-five” to me. Pretty good, but not top-five. For the purposes of this exercise, our old buddy Brugler ranked the class 11th overall, which would be quite the disappointment if accurate. Then again, he named Quintez Cephus his favorite Lions Day 3 pick, so what the hell does he know?
Of course, there’s nothing stopping this group from becoming the #1 draft class (besides playing for the Detroit Lions). Because, as I said at the top, no one knows how things will shake out. Except maybe Miss Cleo.
I found out she was dead after linking this video. No wonder she didn’t pick up the phone.
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