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Howard-Stafford

A Juwan Howard and Matthew Stafford Therapy Session

  • February 24, 2022February 24, 2022
  • by Jon Hamilton

Juwan Howard and Matthew Stafford are legendary figures in the Detroit sports scene. One no longer works here after tapping out to the misery and is living his best life on the west coast, a Super Bowl-winning quarterback that has talking heads now discussing his Hall of Fame credentials. The other has the next three weeks off after smushing an opposing coach’s face during a postgame handshake line.

Emotions are running high in this town. Time to talk about the things everyone is talking about.

Michigan man?

Let’s start with the topic du jour. Juwan Howard was in his feelings after Wisconsin handed Michigan its 8th(!) double-digit loss of the season on Sunday. Badgers coach Greg Gard called a timeout with 15 seconds remaining in the blowout, which was the criminal act that almost got Howard to skip the handshake line entirely. Maybe Howard should think about reducing the number of times his team gets smacked around, which will eliminate the likelihood of an “unnecessary timeout”.

Unfortunately for Wisconsin assistant coach and former player Joe Krabbenhoft (is there a more Wisconsin basketball name than Joe Krabbenhoft?) Howard did join the “good game” line and decided to do some smacking of his own. Hey, if you can’t beat ’em, beat ’em, amirite? After Gard made the brilliant decision to grab the arm of the 6’9″ 240lb giant who was mad at him, Howard went into “self-defense” mode and chaos ensued.

Howard has been suspended for the remainder of the regular season, which sounds like a more severe punishment than it actually is. He will only miss five games before being eligible to return to the team for the B1G and (fingers crossed) NCAA Tournaments. But Howard’s suspension isn’t the one that is unfair (if anything, it’s light). Those would be the one-game suspensions handed to Moussa Diabate and Terrance Williams II (as well as Wisconsin’s Jahcobi Neath) for taking part in a coach-instigated brawl.

Howard should be ashamed that two of his players were suspended for coming to his defense and modeling the behavior of their nearly 50 year-old-coach. The guy that gets paid handsomely to be a leader of men and represent the university with class. It’s not fair that Diabate and Williams, both of whom have NBA aspirations after being highly regarded high school recruits, now have a character stain on their resumes.

Getting control over his emotions has been an ongoing issue since he took the helm of this team in 2019. Sometimes that works in his favor. Remember the teary-eyed intro presser that won us all over?

And it’s obvious Howard’s personality does very well on the recruiting trail. The immediate results speak for themselves (No. 14 class in 2020, No. 3 class in 2021, projected No. 7 class in 2022). But Howard, much like his buddy and colleague Jim Harbaugh, was unable to foresee the domino effect of his actions until it was too late. With Harbaugh, his ego-fueled flirtation with the NFL led his award-winning assistant coach to take a parallel job across the country due to the disrespect of being left with an uncertain future. With Howard, his decision to put his hands on the face of an opposing coach let his guys know that it was ok to throw some hands of their own.

Michigan is actually lucky this was a noon tip on a Sunday in Madison. The scene could have gotten much more ugly, and potentially dangerous if the fans had more time to pre-game lubricate. But player safety was not something Howard was considering. When the emotions turned on, the brain turned off.

Drunk guy

Are basketball coaches not given enough opportunities to let out their frustration and aggression in a way that doesn’t get themselves and their players suspended? Run around pointing and screaming on the sidelines. Berate the officials. Give a spicy post-game presser if you don’t mind being fined. Do pretty much anything except punch a guy in the face. Too much to ask, I guess. While Howard’s physical toughness is unquestionable, the mental side leaves some to be desired.

Juwan Howard is a good man. He deserves an opportunity to grow and come back from this embarrassing mistake. But I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t interested to see what Phil Martelli and the rest of the staff can do with this squad in his absence. That interest is only peaked further after a comfortable win over a pretty good Rutgers team on Wednesday in a total team effort. While Michigan still has realistic postseason aspirations, the fact that they are a bubble team after entering the season with the second-best odds to win the national championship is a massive disappointment. Some of that I would pin directly on Howard.

It took far too long for Michigan to start riding the horse that is Hunter Dickinson. After a season-opening win over Buffalo, Michigan had a stretch of six games where they went 3-3, with Dickinson attempting only 8 shots per game. That is a gross underutilization of your most dominant and efficient weapon (.565/.356/.808 slash line). And while Dickinson does have a habit of picking up dumb fouls, Howard tends to overreact to foul trouble, which is one of my pet peeves across all levels of basketball.

Why are coaches so terrified of a player fouling out? You get five fouls. And if you don’t use them, you lose them (shout out to Steve Carell). Sit a guy when he needs a breather or when the game flow calls for it, not when he is in foul trouble. Ever see a player pick up a couple of early fouls and sit for the rest of the half, only to finish the game with three personals and only 24 minutes played? Think of how many unnecessary minutes that player missed due to fear of a hypothetical foul out. If you can’t trust your players to adjust their physicality and play within the context of their foul situation then that is a coaching failure.

And even if a guy does foul out, so what? They played their maximum total minutes possible for that given game, which is ideal. No wasted minutes on the bench. It reminds me of coaches being hesitant to go for 2 in football due to fear or expectation of failure. Risk aversion is a strange yet fascinating phenomenon in the world of high-level athletics.

Scared money

Enough of my foul rant. The most pressing issue heading into the Rutgers game was the lack of production from Caleb Houstan. The highest-ranked Michigan recruit in decades has actually played more minutes than Dickinson this season, they are just on the opposite spectrum of efficiency. The .387/.344/.746 slash makes me throw up in my mouth a little bit, and when you pair that with a higher turnover total than assists on the season it just didn’t justify the nearly 32 minutes he plays each night. But lo and behold, Houstan had his coming out party in Michigan’s first game sans Howard, with 21 points and five triples. If Martelli can unlock something in Houstan and make performances like these semi-regular it drastically raises this team’s ceiling. Michigan is top-10 good with Houstan playing like the 5-star he is.

Kenpom still kinda likes Michigan (#31) despite their gross record, giving them a healthy bump due to a No. 5 adjusted strength of schedule rating. If they sneak into the tournament, this could be the most talented 11-seed in the history of college basketball. I just hope I’m not Googling “NIT times and schedule” a month from now.

Stafford is super

Chalk another one up for player empowerment. Because good God, did things get great for Matthew Stafford in a hurry once he asked out of town.

Matthew Stafford Was Born To Be Drunk As Shit At Parades https://t.co/BmVWhTtP1b pic.twitter.com/PFW5xfvS2u

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) February 16, 2022

As a noted Stafford honk, I was asked plenty if I was rooting for the Rams this season. No, I was not. I do not have “Team B’s”. I have an allegiance to my city, and my city alone. Everyone else can kick rocks. It comes from my heart, not my brain. I will not adopt another team or city and take the easy way out. It’s just not how I’m wired. Thanks dad. Digging my heels in and leaning into the misery will make me stronger in the end. The “end” being when I’m dead and the Lions have the same number of playoff wins as they do today.

The optimal scenario was Stafford having a long term case of asymptomatic COVID that ran from Sep-Jan and playing with his kids through a hazmat suit, with the Rams going 2-15 and sending the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft to Detroit. What was I realistically hoping for? That Stafford would play well but the Rams would get an unlucky bounce here and a bad call there en route to an 8-9 win season, sending the Lions a pick somewhere in the teens.

Instead the Lions will receive pick No. 32 from L.A. in this coming draft. Because there are 32 teams in the NFL. And the best one had Matthew Stafford as their quarterback. And the (almost) worst one had Jared Goff.

Stafford wave

I feel like he’s waiving at my pain.

Yes, it does give me some feelings of vindication that Stafford proved his haters wrong in record time. It wasn’t hard for me to see Matthew Stafford was always a Super Bowl-caliber talent, leader, and competitor. But far too many refused to believe that narrative and could not separate the QB from the hand he was dealt. Now the few haters left are on national debate shows and arguing about his place in the pantheon of historical greatness, not SOL-ers calling 97.1 from mom’s basement in Redford.

The fascinating part about Stafford’s Super Bowl run is that he didn’t even have a great season relative to his own career resume. The gold standard is the injury-shortened 2019 campaign where he played a half-season of MVP-caliber football, where simply an average second-half likely would have earned him an elusive Pro Bowl nod. Outside of that, depending on your preferred QB metric menu items, 2021 could be argued anywhere from 2nd to, I don’t know, 4th…5th best season of his career? Dude absolutely shredded Arizona and Tompa in the playoffs though, which put all three of the playoff performances he had in Detroit in the rearview.

Then, despite being in an absolute pressure cooker with his legacy on the line, delivered one of his signature 4th quarter comebacks with the whole world watching, complete with no-look passes and some NSFW gems for the mic’d up reel.

Here's the exchange between Rams QB Matthew Stafford and Bengals S Vonn Bell after Bell hit Cooper Kupp and was whistled for unnecessary roughness pic.twitter.com/a2qhpMcuWg

— Ben Baby (@Ben_Baby) February 18, 2022

Outside of knowing I was right about Stafford all along, the feelings I’m left with are a cocktail of jealousy, embarrassment, and frustration. Jealousy that Stafford filed for divorce from Detroit and is much happier now that he is out of his toxic relationship. Embarrassment that, as if the Lions weren’t enough of a national punching bag, Stafford is proof that Detroit is a place where failure is the only option. Frustration that, for 12 years and across multiple regimes, the Lions had a quarterback good enough to win a Super Bowl, yet couldn’t win a playoff game.

This would be a lot easier if the Rams were my “Team B”.

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Michigan Basketball: Irregular Season B1G Champions

  • March 11, 2021March 11, 2021
  • by Jon Hamilton

Michigan is a basketball school, and I’m proud of it. My boys just finished off a dominant run through a loaded conference and are now B1G regular-season champions and I need to get some positivity on paper before something bad happens, like an Appalachian State (16) vs. Michigan (1) first-round NCAA Tournament matchup (yes, it’s a real thing that could happen).

After 3 straight upsets in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament, Appalachian State is heading to their first NCAA Tournament since 2000. They'll probably be a 16 seed, which means they might play…

Oh god, Michigan.

— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) March 9, 2021

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Pandemic playback

If a guy in his sweatpants writes a 1,500-word blog post analyzing Michigan’s chances to win the Big Ten tournament, but the next day the tournament (and life) gets canceled by a pandemic that would ravage the globe for the next year-plus, does it make a sound?

Exactly one year ago to the day I was in my foxhole, digging through the data and looking for a narrative to concoct as to why my beloved Michigan basketball, the only consistent source of joy I derive from sports in a town of never-ending rebuilds, had a chance to make it to their fourth consecutive Big Ten Tournament final.

A trip down memory lane reminds us that the 2019-20 version of the Wolverines had a modest 19-12 overall record, were only .500 in league play, and finished the regular season losers of three out of their final four games. That body of work earned them the No. 9 seed in the conference tournament. It was (and still is) unclear whether Juwan Howard inherited John Beilein’s magic wand that makes Michigan get hot in tournament time after grinding sluggishly through a consistently brutal league gauntlet.

Howard never got to show whether he was up for the postseason challenge in his maiden voyage at the helm of his alma mater. But this season? The resume headed into tourney time looks a wee bit cleaner. No employment gaps. Strong references. Relevant volunteer work.

Michigan Ken Pom-mel the competition

Michigan’s current 19-3 record is just percentage points off from the best record in the history of the program (.867 – .864). A Big Ten Tournament championship and Final Four appearance could still get them there, even without winning the Natty. Their league-winning 14-3 conference record (sorry Illini) is made all the more impressive by the fact that the league is absolutely loaded with NCAA title contenders. KenPom’s efficiency rankings have six Big Ten teams landing in the top 13 overall. And do we even need to talk about the depth in the conference? You can play that track on a loop. Of the top 62 teams in KenPom efficiency (roughly the size of an NCAA tournament field, eh?), twelve come from the Big Ten.

Sirius Black

Think Ken Pomeroy is just some dork with Excel skills and a lot of time on his hands that doesn’t know anything about real basketball? Shame on you! Are you forgetting his work as professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Utah? I bet you did forget about that. Dude is a meteorologist. How are we gonna know where the meteors are going to land without meteorologists? When KenPom talks, I listen.

In all seriousness, to restate just how strong the Big Ten looks this season, Sports-Reference’s SOS rating tells us that Michigan just played the most difficult schedule in the history of the program. This number will only rise with more quality opponents on deck (unless they get bounced in their opening matchup of both tourneys). Put it this way: B1G bottom feeders Penn St., Northwestern, Indiana, and Nebraska have played the most difficult schedules in the country, as that’s simply because they had to run the conference gauntlet and didn’t have the luxury of playing against the team in the mirror.

Keep in mind that Michigan played a short and relatively weak non-conference slate due (mostly) to pandemic restrictions and playing it safe in terms of travel. Though the No. 201 ranked Golden Grizzlies resembled the Revenant bear against the Michigan DiCaprio’s back in November, with the Wolverines needing OT before finally stabbing Oakland in the jugular. We don’t need to relive that night. Just watch this award-winning bear mauling instead for the general recap.

What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger? Yeah, we’ll go with that narrative.

Revenant

But wait, there’s more…

Think I’m coming on a bit heavy-handed, propping up the strength of the conference to undeserving heights just to inflate my team’s accomplishments?

I deny nothing. We press on.

What if I told you that Michigan, the only team in the country that sports a top 6 offense and defense, had zero players earn first-team all-conference honors or make the conference all-defensive team (as voted on by coaches)?

I bring this up for multiple reasons. This is yet another illustration of how stacked the talent is in this conference. On any given night Iowa’s Luka Garza could drop 35 on you or Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn could punch you right in the melon for no damn reason.

Kofi Cockburn out here pummeling refs. Geez pic.twitter.com/TStGuc2eKR

— Ryan D'Amico (@DiaDia18) December 12, 2019

We also could get some chip on the shoulder side-effects from the snubs here. These individual awards don’t mean much to THE TEAM THE TEAM THE TEAM, but Michigan has a group of studs that will be playing in the big leagues before long, and those individual accolades can bolster a draft stock portfolio. Take Franz Wagner for example, who was probably most deserving of, at minimum, that all-defensive honor on the back of his constant engagement and nearly 2.5 STL+BLK per game (only he and MSU’s Aaron Henry are top-15 in each stat). He’s currently sitting on the fringes of the lottery at No. 15 on Sam Vecenie of The Athletic’s draft big board, higher than any other prospect in the Big Ten. Of course, this ranking was published on March 1st, before award season. And who was nipping at Wagner’s heels at No. 18? Illinois’ Ayo Dosunmu, of All-Big Ten first-team fame.

Wagner has grown tremendously since 2019-20, and it is clear his 3&D skillset is going to fit in seamlessly with whatever NBA franchise lands him. But he could stand to assert himself more offensively, as his efficient scoring should make it relatively easy to average north of 15ppg (he’s only at 12.9ppg for the season). A more offensively aggressive Franz Wagner would be a matchup nightmare for opponents come tournament time. Here’s hoping newly crowned Big Ten Coach of the Year Juwan Howard puts up some bulletin board material.

Speaking of bulletin board material…

Have you seen the pathetic attempts of Illinois begging to be co-Big Ten Champions alongside Michigan even though Michigan had the higher conference winning percentage, which was the criteria agreed upon prior to the season to deal with uneven games due to COVID cancelations? Michigan ended the season with three fewer games played than the full 20-game conference schedule due to a three-week shutdown of the athletic department from late-Jan to mid-Feb, a portion of which they were relegated to Zoom workouts in their dorms (which doesn’t sound like an advantage, contrary to what Illini nation would have you believe). When Michigan finally returned to the court it took all of one half to shake of the rust and knock off Wisconsin on the road, KenPom’s current No. 12 team in the country.

This isn’t just emotional fans venting on social media either, Illinois’ own athletic director posted this tear-jerker of a plea for his university to be able to hang a bogus banner in the rafters, while simultaneously saying this year’s regular-season champion is meaningless and hedging by saying he takes nothing away from Michigan’s accomplishments. Meanwhile, Josh Whitman, the AD in question, was part of the advisory committee that voted UNANIMOUSLY for the winning percentage clause to be put in effect this season, and reaffirmed his vote as recently as Feb. 26th.

This guy

Where did Trump find a Josh Whitman mask?

The three games Michigan couldn’t make up: rematches with Northwestern, Indiana, and Penn State, against whom Michigan went 3-0 and defeated by a combined 39 points. I have an idea! Why don’t we just take away three of Illinois’ games against these teams and pretend they never happened. After all, they did get to slap each of these teams around twice, a luxury Michigan could not partake in. Final tally: Michigan 14-3, Illinois 13-4, with nearly identical conference schedules. That settles it. It’s fair and it makes sense because I said so and that’s what I believe. Isn’t that how it works?

Mr. Whitman. Illini fans. I know it hurts. You absolutely rolled up Michigan without your best player at Crisler Center in the only head-to-head matchup between the schools. You think you’re better than Michigan, and I won’t refute your claim. But your AD helped make this bed. Take it up with him. Sorry, not sorry. Stop embarrassing yourselves and keep your eyes on the ball. The most important basketball is yet to be played. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to sweep up all this Maize and Blue confetti.

Leaders and Best.

This year's Michigan team overcame a tremendous amount of adversity, but under the incredible guidance of @JuwanHoward, just kept working and never complained.

Now, they're 2021 Big Ten champions.https://t.co/CRr6cHwe0q#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/e5BODkP70s

— TheWolverine.com (@TheWolverineMag) March 5, 2021

Ju-wanna win a Big Ten title? Come to Michigan!

I simply cannot believe Juwan Howard has hit the ground running this fast after taking over for John Beilein in 2019. I expected Howard to excel in the recruiting department, though I don’t think anyone could have seen him landing the top class in the country in 2021 (and it ain’t even close) so quickly. Then again, who wouldn’t want to play for this guy?

Mood #BIG10CHAMPS pic.twitter.com/7usGD7F9PS

— Jace Howard (@jaceh0ward) March 5, 2021

The reason I was always a big Beilein guy was that he excelled at taking less heralded and overlooked prospects and maximizing their potential (Trey Burke anyone?). Howard has done something along those lines as well with this squad. Remember, this team just barely cracked the preseason AP rankings at No. 25. Six Big Ten teams had more bullish preseason expectations than Michigan. While it helps to have guys like Mike Smith and Chaundee Brown, transfers from Columbia and Wake Forest, just fall out of the sky and slot into key roles of your rotation, Michigan was not supposed to be receiving-first-place-AP-votes-in-March good.

It’s been said before (by me, if you care to revisit) but I think it bears repeating how smartly Juwan Howard constructed his coaching staff to fill in any and all gaps in experience and player development before they could become issues on the court. He brought in Phil Martelli, formerly of St. John’s, whose 24 years as a collegiate head coach came in slightly above Howard (zero). He retained Saddi Washington from Beilein’s staff to help smooth the transition process and give the Beilein era recruits a familiar face in the locker room. And Howard Eisley is a former NBA-er who is old enough to say he played against MJ but young enough to say he played against Lebron. Kids eat that stuff up.

But can he do it in the playoffs?

Here’s where I start to come down a bit from the high of Michigan’s regular-season run. The Beilein era spoiled us into expecting deep postseason runs, be that in the conference or NCAA tourney, and it shouldn’t just be assumed that this trend will continue under a new regime until Howard proves it. John Beilein led Michigan to the Big Ten Tournament title game in each of his final three seasons at the helm, winning it all in 2017 (8 seed) and 2018 (5 seed). If Howard can stretch the streak to four Michigan will become only the second school to accomplish this feat in the 23-year history of the tournament, and the first since the conference expanded to include Maryland and Rutgers. In other words, it’s really hard to get there every year, yet Beilein made it look routine until he decided to dip his toes in the NBA waters and take the Cleveland Slugs Cavaliers gig.

After stunning players in a film session with a verbal suggestion that they were no longer playing “like a bunch of thugs,” Cavaliers coach John Beilein reached out individually to players tonight to insist he meant to use the word “slugs.” Story on ESPN: https://t.co/kqhRJ0qGjs

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) January 9, 2020

In the big dance Beilein’s track record was just as impressive, with an overall record of 20-9 in the NCAA Tournament over the course of his 12 seasons as Wolverines head coach. In Michigan’s last six tournament appearances that record improves to a glistening 18-6.

Beilein’s Wolverines routinely received the label of “tough out” or “team to watch out for” rather than true national title favorite. Howard will not have the luxury of flying under the radar with this squad. Despite dropping 2 of 3 to end the regular season and losing Eli Brooks to an ankle injury in the finale (he could return Friday), this is still a likely one-seed and the betting odds still view Michigan as the back end of a “big 3” with Gonzaga and Baylor. At the time of this writing, the Wolverines sit at +420 to be the last team standing when the dust settles at the end of the madness.

They have the tools. They have the resume. The only question is whether they have that unquantifiable Johnny juju that Michigan seems to summon when win or go home season rolls around.

We’ll find out soon enough whether Michigan can add more titles to it’s pandemic trophy case.

Hail!

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Michigan Basketball Loves B1G Tournament Season

  • March 11, 2020May 25, 2020
  • by Jon Hamilton

Michigan Basketball will head into the B1G Tournament as the No. 9 seed in the conference, but in reality, they are closer to being the No. 9 team in the nation. They will have a chance to prove it starting Thursday afternoon against Rutgers, as they look to make it to their fourth consecutive Big Ten title game. Read more “Michigan Basketball Loves B1G Tournament Season” →

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The Warm Take Introduces: The Bright Side

  • March 3, 2020May 24, 2020
  • by Jon Hamilton

If you’ve ever stumbled upon The Warm Take About page, you would find that the inspiration behind the creation of this site came from my son’s 2019 New Year’s resolution of “Make up anything you want to be”. He was a three-year-old at the time and – I don’t want to put words in his mouth – didn’t intend for that to be actual career advice for his father. Nevertheless, I took that adorable little nugget of hope and optimism and turned it into this site, which serves as a creative outlet for my Detroit/Michigan sports knowledge, a forum to workshop a limitless supply of lame jokes, and a place to blow off some steam (teams lose a lot ’round these parts). Read more “The Warm Take Introduces: The Bright Side” →

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Michigan Basketball: Livers Damage

  • February 18, 2020May 24, 2020
  • by Jon Hamilton

Following Michigan’s 89-65 obliteration of a solid and likely NCAA Tournament-bound Indiana team on Sunday (their 7th straight win against the Hoosiers), Michigan finally climbed back to .500 in conference play (7-7), a place they haven’t been in nearly six weeks. That still puts them in the back half of the Big Ten standings and a full four games behind first-place Maryland. Michigan’s realistic dreams to win the Big Ten regular-season title died during their two-win month of January. They are still looking up at seven teams with only six games to play. Read more “Michigan Basketball: Livers Damage” →

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Michigan Basketball: Welcome to the Bubble

  • January 31, 2020May 24, 2020
  • by Jon Hamilton

The Michigan basketball program’s “nothing to gain, everything to lose” victory at Nebraska on Tuesday ended a four-game losing streak and improved their record to 12-8 overall, yet they remain buried in 11th place in the Big Ten standings at 3-6. Michigan has finished with a losing record in conference play just once in the last nine seasons (2014-15). They have missed the NCAA Tournament just once in the past nine seasons as well (also in 2014-15). It’s been quite a run of sustained excellence, but Michigan has now used up all of its house money accrued during their blazing hot 7-0 season start, which seems like an eternity ago. Read more “Michigan Basketball: Welcome to the Bubble” →

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Michigan Basketball: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

  • January 8, 2020April 1, 2020
  • by Jon Hamilton

The 2019-20 Michigan basketball season began with a roller-coaster win over Appalachian State. That game proved to be quite the metaphor for the early part of the season, as this team has been all over the map in Juwan Howard’s first year at the helm. It’s a tradition as old as time (1966): let’s go over the good, the bad, and the ugly of the Michigan basketball season so far. Read more “Michigan Basketball: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly” →

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Michigan Basketball Expectations for 2019-20 Season

  • November 8, 2019January 27, 2020
  • by Jon Hamilton

The 2019-20 Michigan basketball season tipped off Tuesday with a roller-coaster win over Appalachian State that saw Michigan nearly surrender a 30 point lead (for the love of everything holy, stop scheduling this team. In any sport.) Will this game be a symbolic preview of what’s to come in Juwan Howard’s maiden voyage as Michigan head coach? Join me as we calibrate our expectations for the upcoming season. Read more “Michigan Basketball Expectations for 2019-20 Season” →

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