Detroit Lions 2022 Draft Review: Coming up Hutch

The Detroit Lions landed hometown hero Aidan Hutchinson with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft.

Other things happened, and we’ll get to them shortly. But I wanted to lead with that sentence because, regardless of all the moving and shaking Lions GM Brad Holmes dabbled in after the no-brainer selection of Hutchinson at No. 2, this draft was house money after the Jaguars passed on the universally agreed-upon top player in the class. I’m not a sunshine and rainbows type of guy, so my tone will shift as I nitpick Holmes’ decisions as this draft unfolded. But to be clear, I am pretty f’n pumped that we will get to see Hutchinson in Honolulu Blue for years to come.

Not much analysis needs to be done at No. 2, but for the rest of this draft review, I will be using a combination of Dane Brugler’s “The Beast” scouting guide, Pro Football Focus‘ draft board, and the “Consensus Big Board” published by The Athletic (a meta-ranking of 82 boards across the industry) to determine whether the Lions maximized value at each of their selections.

Round 1(2): Aidan Hutchinson – EDGE – Michigan

Consensus Big Board: 1 | PFF: 1 | Brugler: 1

Turns out Detroit’s late-season respectability campaign that saw them go 3-3 over the final six games and push themselves out of the cellar – and the top pick in the draft – meant little in the grand scheme of things. Little except player development and good locker room vibes of course. Which aren’t nothing. They are very much something.

But while this draft class has been labeled as not top-heavy, Hutchinson had been identified as the favorite to go No. 1 for months. When Jacksonville opted to snag Georgia’s Travon Walker instead (the guy I originally wanted at No. 2 FWIW) the stars aligned for the Lions for once since 1957. Those stars being a) best player available, b) area of need, c) culture fit, d) premium position, and…oh yeah…e) the kid was born in Plymouth, went to HS in Dearborn, and played college ball for The University of Michigan. He also wrecked Ohio State in the most fun I’ve ever had standing in a blizzard.

It’s just a perfect marriage. While his ceiling is TBD I’d be stunned if Hutchinson wasn’t a productive player for the Lions for many, many years. Why? Try these nuggets from Brugler’s scouting guide and see if failure is an option for a guy with these traits…

“hyper-alert playstyle…ball carriers go lifeless when he strikes, and missed tackles are rare…intangibles are off the charts…elite preparation and practice habits…plays with maniacal effort…“

And most importantly for a guy coming to a franchise that’s never won anything ever: “competitive play personality that raises the level of his teammates”.

I’m making a one-time exception to my “no draft grades” policy and giving the Hutchinson pick a 42.27. My favorite number since 11/27/21.

Round 1(12): Jameson Williams – WR – Alabama

Consensus Big Board: 13 OVR – WR3 | PFF: 9 OVR – WR1 | Brugler: 13 OVR – WR2

The spotlight was stolen from Hutchinson just an hour after his selection when wheelin’ and dealin’ Brad Holmes made the bold-yet-controversial move to trade up to select Williams, the burner from ‘Bama currently on the mend from a torn ACL. The Lions swapped picks 32, 34, and 66 for Minnesota’s 12 and 46.

The cost of the trade-up – in a vacuum and without inserting the player names that were eventually drafted in those slots – was a bargain and an opportunity most GMs in Holmes’ position would pounce on in a heartbeat. To take advantage of a division rival in Minnesota was just icing on the cake. A vast majority of the time it is the team trading UP that has to pay the tax in overall value and assets. That’s why trading back is such a popular pre-draft scenario seemingly every year. Somehow it was the Vikings that paid the tax to move back. A 20 spot first-round jump is a massive leap, which is why the draft value charts have the Lions making out like bandits. There are several ways to frame the trade, but the Lions essentially bought two 20-spot jumps (32 > 12 and 66 > 46) for the cost of pick No. 34. That’s good business.

When the announcement of the trade came in I was hoping they would take S Kyle Hamilton from Notre Dame and terrified they would take a QB. Hamilton was once in the discussion at No. 2, eventually settled in the 4-10 range on most boards and safety was one of the top needs for Detroit. I’m not of the belief that Goff is the future of this team beyond the length of his current contract, but in a weak QB class, this wasn’t the opportunity to take that plunge. Just too many studs still available at other positions.

Enter Jameson Williams, who definitely has studly qualities and likely would have been the No. 1 receiver everywhere had he not tore his ACL in the NCAA title game. Hell, he still was considered the top wideout by some, including PFF. And give Holmes credit for swinging for the fences when seeing a game-breaking receiver at an attainable price and beating everyone to the front of the line.

The injury isn’t a dealbreaker for me, since the Lions can PUP Williams and give him all the time he needs to get right since 2022 is just another year in the rebuild (albeit a much more entertaining one). My concern is that Goff is not the long-term answer at QB and doesn’t have the big arm or aggressiveness to fully utilize the dynamic weapon that Williams is (miss U Staff). With the wealth of weapons Goff now has at his disposal, I see this year as his final chance to show Holmes and Dan Campbell he is good enough to be the QB once they are ready to push for the playoffs. Anything less than a league-average season for Goff (think QB12-18 range) and we should see the QB of the future either drafted in RD1 or acquired via trade next year.

The final point on Williams for me is the fact that the WR market is exploding right now, with significant money being dished out for No. 1s left and right. A total of 21 different veteran receivers are making more than $14.75 million in average annual value. This includes the likes of Robby Anderson, Christian Kirk, and old pal Kenny Golladay (anyone still mad we didn’t franchise tag him? Bueller?). Not exactly franchise cornerstones, yet those are the names commanding big paydays on the open market. It makes more sense than ever to take a shot at a high-end receiver in the draft because if you hit on a star you are giving your team a tremendous amount of cap flexibility to shore up other areas. Williams will be making (estimated) just under $20 million total on his four-year rookie contract.

Bonus points go to Williams for coming to his senses and transferring from OSU before being snowballed by Big Hutch and the Wolverines. This guy is going to be fun to watch. Just get him the damn ball, Jared.

Round 2(46): Josh Paschal – DE – Kentucky

Consensus Big Board: 70 OVR – DL5T3 | PFF: 44 OVR – EDGE9 | Brugler: 83 OVR – EDGE15

Here’s where things start to get tricky.

After the Jaguars gifted Hutchinson to the Lions at No 2. Holmes opted to dip back into the defensive end waters, using a premium pick on a guy that few outside of PFF had ranked anywhere near pick 46. Nothing wrong with the player, who by all accounts is a better human being than you or I (three-time captain and cancer survivor), but I am very concerned that Holmes let a day-one starter (or even a potential star) slip away by using this pick on Paschal.

That’s not to say Paschal can’t start or at least play a healthy amount of snaps right away. But the pass-rush unit is getting very crowded all of a sudden. With Hutchinson, the brothers Okwara, Charles Harris, Austin Bryant, and sixth-rounder James Houston (among others) you now have quite the rotation and a lot of mouths to feed. Dare I say a position of strength? Paschal is a better run-stopper than pass-rusher, so he’ll be able to play more inside with the big boys at DT like Levi Onwuzurike and Alim McNeill, who Holmes also double-dipped for in 2021. So at least Holmes is acquiring players with disparate skillsets, giving DC Aaron Glenn the ability to mix and match bodies to fit what opposing offenses are scheming.

That being said, there was a lot of meat still left on the draft bone at this stage. QB Malik Willis was still lingering. You could have at least entertained the idea of taking a shot on a guy that could be the eventual successor to Goff, even if taking a QB in 2022 originally wasn’t in the cards. Georgia LB Nakobe Dean was there for the taking, whom many had pegged somewhere in the 20s, but slipped due to medical concerns (again, less of a concern for the Lions who should be in no rush in 2022). This also seemed like the perfect spot for Penn State S Jaquan Brisker (generally rated in the high-30s-40s), a huge area of need for Detroit that they ended up addressing with their next pick wayyyyyy down at 97. Brisker ended up going two picks later to Chicago. That Bear might end up biting them in the butt.

Still, there are some that think Paschal is much closer to the top of his class positionally than middle-of-the-pack. This is a questionable pick purely based on the rankings and depth chart, not the player. He will be a guy that’s easy to root for given his personality and the adversity he has overcome. But I can’t help but wonder if Paschal was originally Holmes’ target at 66 and the trade forced him to take “his guy” a round early rather than recalibrating the board.

Round 3(97): Kerby Joseph – S – Illinois

Consensus Big Board: 96 OVR – S8 | PFF: 73 OVR – S7 | Brugler: 100+ OVR – S8

Prior to the draft, I would have been very surprised if the Lions waited this long to address safety, a position group that still looks shaky even after the selection of Joseph. It’s basically Tracy Walker and friends back there. But concessions had to be made after the trade-up for Williams and depth pick of Paschal, so Joseph it is.

Joseph doesn’t have a long resume, basically bursting onto draft boards on the heels of leading the nation in individual takeaways as a senior in 2021 (5 INT, 3 FR). He’s supposed to have some of the freaky athletic traits that are all the rage these days, including a 6’8″ wingspan that Dwane Casey and the Pistons might need to borrow in a pinch. He and Tracy Walker might be able to touch sideline-to-sideline if they stand next to each other. PFF likes him quite a bit more than the consensus, so let’s hope they are seeing the same things Holmes sees.

The one that got away here may end up being LB Leo Chenal from Wisconsin. PFF’s third-rated linebacker, whose run-stuffing they compared to Micah Parsons, ended up going six picks later to the Chiefs. Thankfully, it looks like the Lions ended up getting some nice value at LB in round 6, but that deep in the draft is typically dart-throwin’ territory and it would have been nice to add a round 2 talent at a barely top-100 price.

Round 5(177): James Mitchell – TE – Virginia Tech

Consensus Big Board: 216 OVR – TE11 | PFF: 109 OVR – TE4 | Brugler: TE9

Brad Holmes must’ve signed up for that PFF Elite account. Every selection up to this point has the Lions drafting great value relative to their PFF ranking, none more so than Mitchell. It looks like a torn ACL scared most teams away from Mitchell, who likely would have been rated and drafted much higher than the end of round 5. More good business for the Lions here, who won’t need to rush Mitchell into action in 2022. The position group is pretty meh behind TJ Hockenson, so it makes sense to develop an eventual TE2 (or a TE1 successor in case Hock becomes a free agent in 2024).

In terms of what was still on the board here, Detroit still had not addressed their gross LB depth chart, and Cincinnatti’s Darian Beavers was still lingering. Beavers was rated solidly ahead of the LB they eventually took in round 6 by all the boards used in this breakdown, with the consensus board slotting him at 111 overall. I hear Beavers is a dam good player who can chew a hole through opposing ball carriers.

Round 6(188): Malcolm Rodriguez – LB – Oklahoma State

Consensus Big Board: 170 OVR – LB15 | PFF: 153 OVR – LB15 | Brugler: LB13

It took until round 6, but the Lions finally addressed what is arguably the worst position group on the entire roster. That’s saying something coming off of a season where Detroit ranked 31st in points allowed. Holmes passed up a ton of LB talent in the rounds leading up to the selection of Rodriguez. That being said, some are calling this pick the best value of the weekend for Detroit, which is supported by the rankings I used for this draft review. Bonus points for Holmes trading back from 181 (picking up 188 and 237) and still getting the guy he wanted at a great price. Solid work late in the draft.

Rodriguez went to Oklahoma State and wore #20. Something tells me he was meant to be a Detroit Lion. It’s sexy these days to prioritize athletic traits and measurables over production, but Rodriguez bucks that trend. This dude has a resume that would make Barry proud (since 2018):

398 TKLS | 35.5 TFL | 8 FF | 13 PD | 2 INT

My favorite part of that line might be the PDs and INTs, and the fact that Rodriguez did not allow a TD in coverage in 2021. Could it be that the Lions went out and found a linebacker that excels in coverage? I’m so tired of Detroit getting shredded by mediocre journeymen TEs year in and year out. I did some quick research on this and it turns out the Lions have been much better in this area over the past five seasons, but it’s still true in my mind. If Rodriguez can help hold Cole Kmet under 150 yards and 3 TDs he will be my new favorite player.

We’re so deep into the draft at this point that looking at who else was still available will probably be a waste of time. So the rest of the way we’re going with comedic names only.

Russ Yeast, safety from Kansas State, goes to the Rams at pick 253. I have a feeling he will grow on them.

Round 6(217): James Houston – EDGE – Jackson State

Consensus Big Board: N/R | PFF: N/R | Brugler: EDGE36

I think Holmes hit the wrong button here. Or he was one too many cocktails deep after celebrating a very solid weekend up to this point.

Houston was unranked on most boards and the Lions already sunk significant draft capital into EDGE/DE, so I’m not sure what the point of this selection was. Houston was suspended for his freshman season at Florida after being investigated for credit card fraud, which isn’t great, and could be a major character red flag. Odd since the Lions tend to emphasize “culture” over all else under this regime. Per Chris Burke of The Athletic, Houston had no contact with the Lions during the draft process prior to getting the call that he was being drafted. Surprising that they didn’t take the time to vet this guy personally.

In the team-sponsored highlight package above, the first clip is little more than a missed tackle disguised as a forced fumble and sack. I’d much rather have taken a shot on Chris Paul, who slipped all the way to the Commanders at pick 230. “CP3” is third on the all-time assists list and, while not conventional wisdom to take a 36-year-old basketball player in the NFL Draft, shows no signs of slowing down. Washington fans are getting a future hall of famer at little more than a UDFA price. “Steal” of the draft (4th all-time).

Round 7(237): Chase Lucas – CB – Arizona State

Consensus Big Board: 214 OVR | PFF: 336 OVR – CB38 | Brugler: CB25

PFF’s not a believer, but Brugler and the consensus say the Lions ended their draft with a nice value pick here. The Lions have no shortage of bodies at corner, but are we sure any of them are any good besides Amani Oruwariye? Even Jeff Okudah can’t be considered a definitive starting corner given the way his NFL career has started. May as well add to the stockpile this late in the draft, and the 25(!) year-old Lucas will make a nice cohort with the rest of his teammates, many of which he is actually older than after a six-year stint at ASU.

I really want to dip back into the legendary point guard jokes here and talk about the Lions missing out on drafting Isaiah Thomas, but technically he was off the board already (went 223 to CLE). Plus, we all know that’s not how you spell ISIAH Thomas.

Instead, we’ll do a “best of the bums” roll call. Here’s hoping any or all of these undrafted hopefuls can claw their way onto an NFL roster. Purely due to their awesome names, not because they are any good.

Names of actual human beings that exist

The bright but hard-headed: Stone Smartt | The draft’s most honest man: Sincere McCormick | The draft’s least honest man: Devanaire Conliffe, and his partner in crime: Justin Rigg | Both follow orders from criminal mastermind: Luiji Vilain | Wide receiver: Andrew Parchment (ball never sticks to his hands) | They never forget Mother’s Day: Sam Flowers and Jay Rose | The walking penalty: Cyrus Holder | Make sure you get a good appraisal on: Cody Ruby | Always finds the best deal: Clay Markoff | Truth or: Dare Rosenthal | Asking for trouble: Baer Hunter | Mom never had to tell him twice to do the dishes: Nick Sink | The hopefully benign and not malignant: Kameron Toomer | Eco-friendly: Bryce Notree | Weakness – limited visibility: Tyshon Fogg | Mom and dad couldn’t agree on his name: Jeffmario Brown | Chef Ramsay does not endorse: Daron Bland | He may be a founding father, but only his friends can call him: Benjie Franklin |

Final thoughts

Overall, I think Brad Holmes and co did a nice job with this draft. They came away with potential franchise cornerstones on both sides of the ball with Hutchinson and Williams, which established a really high floor for everything post-round 1. I was confused by the EDGE/DE overload, which in turn spread the prospects thin at other areas of concern (LB, S, CB), but at least all of those needs were addressed.

The Athletic had the Lions entering the draft with the fifth most draft capital and, after the smoke settled, emerging with the eighth-most total value. This is based on the rankings of the consensus board and adjusting for positional importance, need, and fit.

For those that love the pageantry of post-draft prognostication, I give you the Oscars of draft grades:

The above Tweeter did a nice job of summarizing the talking heads’ perceptions of Detroit’s draft by making a cumulative GPA for all of those that like to participate in the futile activity of draft grading. The Lions clocked in at No. 5 overall on the backs of an A+ from the fine folks at PFF. Hey, that means a lot more than the grades from the Mel Kiper’s of the world. Or does it? Who the hell knows. As always, we can revisit these grades in three years, but probably won’t.

I’m handing out an A+…for my comedic names section. No draft analyst worked harder than I did sifting through the names of a thousand undrafted bums for your amusement. I also did it with a non-COVID illness. So that section was basically my Jordan flu game.

You’re welcome.

“Like” The Warm Take on Facebook

Follow @TheWarmTake on Twitter

Subscribe to receive content alerts via email

Detroit Lions Season Expectations: Losing with Pride

The more things change, the more they stay the same?

Change might be an understatement when it comes to describing the Detroit Lions in 2021. This franchise is starting a rebuild (so tired of that word) from the ground up. New head coach. New GM. New QB. But most certainly, at least in the 2021 win-loss column, the same old Lions. There’s just no way to make a reasonable case for this team even sniffing the postseason. And it’s best for the mental health of Lions fans to accept that fact on the front end before things start to get ugly. Because they will.

It’s going to be strange not hanging on every gut-wrenching loss and incompetent officiating screwjob like in years past. How disappointed can you be when you know it’s coming? That being said, there are still reasons for fans to be invested in this season. Let’s go down my personal checklist.

Campbell’s culture crusade

Exactly zero games that count have been played yet, but I’m taking the bait on Dan Campbell. I’ll look like an idiot when the losses pile up, the schtick gets old, and he gets run out of town in 3-5 years. Or when he gets thrown in the joint for removing another man’s kneecap with his teeth. But he’s hitting all the notes for me of what I think a leader needs to look and sound like in this city (see: not a condescending, obese asshole).

The last coach in this town thought he could win by outsmarting everyone, even though he didn’t prove to be all that smart. That just isn’t how it’s done in the blue-collar capital. Arrogance and a refusal to adjust to your circumstances are the hills Matt Patricia chose to die on. Au contraire, Dan Campbell has ascended the ladder through a combination of hard work (farm boy), building relationships (Sean Payton’s right-hand man at multiple stops), and earning trust (rather than MF-ing players and intimidation tactics). He has former teammates, staffers, and pretty much anyone he has encountered in his professional life coming to bat for him and the way he gets a team to believe in a like-minded goal.

Two things I have noticed about Campbell recently have stood out. First, the amount of access the guy has given to media outlets. Here’s a recent bio from The Athletic that has a lot of perspectives and stories from former teammates, and another earlier this summer from The Ringer that is more of a deep dive inside the mind of the man himself. Both are well worth a read. I just don’t recall another coach in this town being as open as Campbell has in such short a time. He comes across as a man with nothing to hide and very comfortable in his own skin. That authenticity will help him earn the trust of players that eluded Matt Patricia.

Second is the fact that, according to Lions beaters Nick Baumgardner and Chris Burke, Campbell and GM Brad Holmes have displayed an “almost stunning level of cohesion” over the course of the offseason. They have been preaching from the start in nearly every presser that the two are cut from the same cloth and share a common vision for the franchise. But of course they are going to say that. That’s common coach/GM-speak practice. But for that synergy to come across by independent observers at practice and training camp? That adds a layer of much-needed credibility.

It might be tricky to measure Campbell’s effect on the Lions culture this early on when I fully expect them to be one of the league’s bottom feeders. But some things should be apparent through the screen. How hard the team competes, the body language of the players, and keeping the season drama-free in terms of off-field incidents and sound bytes will be some of the things I will be keeping an eye on. But so far, I’ve been enjoying the “Dan Campbell experience”.

They grow up so fast (hopefully)

Detroit is young. The second youngest team in the NFL, to be exact. To show just how drastic of a turnover this is for the Lions, each of the Quinn-Tricia squads the past three seasons fell between 22nd-27th in average age. Ten different Lions over the age of 30 from last season’s opening roster were either traded or not re-signed. Had it not been for TE Josh Hill’s surprise retirement which forced Detroit to sign old pal Darren Fells (36, oldest on roster by five years) they would have taken the crown as the league’s youngest team. Would have felt nice to be No. 1 at something.

Credit to Campbell and Holmes for playing the long game in terms of roster construction. They could have hung on to journeyman vets like Breshad Perriman and Corn Elder, who upon signing were penciled in for prominent roles on this team, on name value alone. But come cut day, the guys that produced are the ones that made the team. Even if you’ve never heard of some of them (AJ Parker, Tom Kennedy, etc).

This can be a true getting your feet wet/working out the kinks year for the under-25ers, with little pressure tied to the outcome of games. In the new 17-game era, the opportunities for Penei Sewell and the incoming rookies to learn on the job will be there for the taking. And let’s not forget Jeff Okudah, who in many ways is starting from scratch in his own right. His rookie season was bookended by injuries and he was brought into the league by a front office that was eating its death row meal.

The health and development of Sewell and Okudah, specifically, will play a major role on the timeline of this rebuild. I’ve become a fan of Jeff Okudah the person based on the way he carries himself off the field and the work he does in the community, particularly for the kids. He’s been put on bust-alert by casuals given the premium draft slot attached to his name but I don’t think that’s fair to him just yet. With the departure of Matthew Stafford, I’m not sure there’s a player I’m rooting harder for than Okudah to prove the doubters wrong.

Wash your hands after you Goff

You’d think that me being a Stafford apologist (though the SOL-ers should be the ones apologizing to him) would mean that I have an anti-Goff bias. I don’t think that’s true, though sometimes those things can be unconscious. I just don’t think he is that good, and nowhere in the realm of Stafford ability-wise. The terms of the Goff/Stafford swap tell you all you need to know. The fact that they were in the same relative tier before the trade in terms of public perception was baffling to me. With the roles, teammates, systems, and media spotlights reversed we are going to learn very quickly what I have been preaching for years: Matthew Stafford is that dude.

Did anyone catch Cris Collinsworth during the Thursday Night DAL-TB opener drop this piece of in-depth analysis…

Stafford wasn’t even playing and he felt the need to share that nugget.

We’ll give Collinsworth a break there. I mean, Stafford has only been in the league 12 years. And it’s not like Collinsworth gets paid to know stuff about football or anything. The most confusing part is that he said his opinion of Stafford changed after watching all of his games from last year, which wasn’t even that great by his standards. It certainly didn’t hold a candle to his 2019 campaign, where he played half a season of MVP-level ball before getting hurt.

#Collinsworthless

I don’t see a scenario in which Jared Goff rediscovers his Pro Bowl form from 2017-18. He just doesn’t have the resources he had in LA. Best-case scenario for me is that Goff is an effective game manager that doesn’t turn the ball over and keeps Detroit in games with clock management and long drives. Worst-case is that the defense routinely forces Goff to play from behind and air it out, which will end badly every time. Goff needs the run game that Stafford never had, or this team is going to be painful to watch. The Lions had the luxury of being bailed out by Stafford’s 4th quarter comebacks for the past 12 years. Those days are long gone.

Goff seems like a good guy. And now he might just be the biggest underdog on a franchise that defines the word. There is a potential redemption story here that will be intriguing to follow. I hope Goff plays well enough not to embarrass himself, but not so well that he tricks Brad Holmes into thinking he is the long-term answer. He is signed through 2024, but the team could get out after 2022 with moderate cap penalties. Regardless of how Goff plays this season, the Lions should be looking to address their long-term QB solution with a premium pick in 2022.

Prediction time!

As we stand heading into the season, Vegas has the Lions over/under win total at 4.5. You can lock in the under at Draftkings at +115, so it looks like much of the public thinks the Lions will go over this number.

I disagree. Jonny Pessimistic says 3-14 will be the damage this season, enough to claim the No. 2 pick in the draft.

Just for fun, I’ll try to identify which three games they will win.

Win: Week 8 at home against Philadelphia.

It would be fun if the Lions opened up the Campbell era with a win at home against the Niners like Jeff Risdon of LionsWire is predicting, but that’s getting too cute for my blood. Frisco is a Super Bowl contender with either of their QBs.

I have Detroit starting 0-7 – just a long enough streak to get the 0-17 discussion started on sports radio – before breaking the seal against the Eagles. The Lions have won three straight against Philly dating back to 2015.

Win: Week 12 at home against Chicago (Thanksgiving)

In a matchup that pits the league’s (second) youngest team against the league’s oldest, here’s your feel-good win of the season. Campbell restores some pride in the Thanksgiving tradition with a win over the Bears, whom they play for the third time in four years on turkey day (why????).

Win: Week 18 at home against Green Bay

This win comes with the assumption that the Packers will have the division locked up and will put health first. The rights to the first-overall pick could be on the line here, making it appointment television. A largely meaningless win in the finale could have frustrating consequences when the next “generational” QB everyone is talking about is within your grasp.

Subscribe to The Warm Take to receive email alerts for new content

Follow @TheWarmTake on Twitter (I promise I won’t clutter your feed with what I’m eating for breakfast)

“Like” The Warm Take on Facebook to help my site grow

Detroit Lions 2021 Round 1 Draft Review: Penei Pasta

Ah, draft season. It’s that time of year again when a new crop of fresh young losers faces will have to fake excitement when they get to walk onto a stage (or a Zoom screen) in front of the world and put on a Lions hat. They know in their hearts that this is going to end poorly. It always has.

But this is the first draft of the MAN CAMPBELL era. So maybe, just maybe, a new breed of lion will be prowling the unholy grounds of Ford Field in 2021.

Good thing opposing GMs don’t need their kneecaps to call in their draft selections, because those will have already been bitten off.

In all seriousness, it is a welcome change of pace to hear Dan Campbell’s enthusiasm and vision for the direction of this franchise. He’s leaning hard into all the classic Detroit cliches like “grit”, “blue-collar”, and “pride”. But those very cliches were attributes clearly lacking during the Bob Quinn/Matt Patricia regime. As eye-roll-inducing as they may sound to many – I eat that stuff up, with a side of “putting on your hardhat” – an identity needs to be in place before the Lions will be “winning” anything but another top-10 draft pick.

Like last season, I will be cross-referencing the Lions’ draft selections against Pro Football Focus’ rankings, an industry-wide Consensus Big Board, and the rankings of The Athletic’s draft guru Dane Brugler (who put on an absolute clinic in his final 2021 Rd. 1 mock exercise). Each offered some unique utility when analyzing Detroit’s 2020 selections: The consensus ranking had D’Andre Swift as the No. 22 overall player in the draft and a steal for Detroit in Round 2, PFF loved John Penisini and his huge dong upside at DT in Round 6, and pretty much all of ’em hated flushing a fifth-rounder down the toilet by taking a second running back in Jason Huntley at No. 172 (he was cut after training camp, because of course he was).

That’s enough for the preamble. Let’s see what Campbell and first-year GM Brad Holmes cooked up on Day 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft, in which the Lions held the seventh overall selection and needed…uh…pretty much everything.

Round 1 (7): Penei Sewell – OT – Oregon

Consensus Big Board: 3 | PFF Ranking: 4 | Brugler Rank: 5 (OT#1)

Pretty much my ideal Round 1 scenario (non-trade back edition, because that’s always the play) came to fruition when the Lions took the young Samoan to shore up the right side (for now) of their offensive line. Why was Sewell my ideal pick? How about a one-line endorsement from Brugler’s scouting guide:

“(Sewell) projects as an immediate NFL starter at left tackle with Pro Bowl potential”

High praise indeed. But PFF would like a word of their own:

“Sewell earned the highest single-season grade we have ever given to a college offensive tackle”

Simply put, in a world where “can’t miss” prospects miss all the time, this kid – literally, he’ll be 20 when he takes his first NFL snap – is about as low-risk/high-reward as you are going to find. The perfect starting point for the lengthy rebuilding road that lies ahead (but do rebuilds ever really end in this town?).

There will surely be a segment of people out there that think the Lions’ new regime should have started their rebuild by finding their long-term answer at the most important position in sports. Because make no mistake, Jared Goff ain’t it. And they had a damn good opportunity staring them in the face in the form of OSU’s Justin Fields, PFF’s No. 3 overall player in the draft. When the Lions traded my guy Matthew Stafford for Goff and a treasure trove of picks back in February I was pretty sure that Goff was nothing more than a very expensive bridge (those gold-plated reinforcement beams really do a number on the final invoice). As time has passed that opinion has only strengthened. But the Lions’ timeline for finding the “answer” at QB is currently dictated by Goff’s bloated contract. They can’t realistically part ways with Goff until 2023 without massive cap implications. Bringing in a rookie QB now would result in too much of an overlap with Goff.

Having a high-level QB on a rookie contract is the cheat code to getting good quickly in the NFL. So, while finding the right QB is the most important part of the equation, finding them at the right time and having a foundation in place for them to hit the ground running are not insignificant factors. While Fields absolutely has a chance to be great, the stars simply did not align in this case. I have no problem with the Lions kicking the future QB can down the road another year. This team will be drafting near the top of the draft again in 2022. There will be more opportunities, and likely better ones, to find the next Matthew Stafford. Slow ride. Take it easy. – Foghat

Speaking of having a foundation in place for the QB of the future, the Sewell pick goes a long way toward building it. Up front the Lions now have a Frank Ragnow sandwich with Taylor Decker and Sewell as the very thick slices of bread. There’s a slice of Hal Vaitai in there somewhere but you can just take it off and throw it out if you don’t like it (maybe give it to the dog, since that is expensive meat). The Lions don’t have many strengths, but the offensive line sure is starting to sound like one.

For the record, while landing Sewell at No. 7 was my top realistic selection, my dream scenario would have been trading back 2-3 spots and taking WR DeVonta Smith. I wouldn’t have been mad if they took him at No. 7 either. The Eagles ended up landing him at No. 10 after trading up to get him. I know the guy weighs less than me after a night of league bowling and a way too late-night Taco Bell excursion (slight exaggeration). But there’s just something about that guy. Dude just won the Heisman and has 38 TDs in his last 26 games. Hasn’t missed a game since 2018. Yet he nearly fell out of the top-10 purely for size concerns. I’d take that guy and the chip on his shoulder any day.

All in all, a satisfying Day 1. My thirst for competent management is momentarily quenched.

Subscribe to The Warm Take

Follow @TheWarmTake on Twitter

“Like” The Warm Take on Facebook to help this content reach new eyeballs

Matthew Stafford Deserved Better. Now He’s Getting It.

Matthew Stafford has always been a polarizing figure in Detroit sports lore. Not sure why though. He’s a hell of a quarterback and a swell guy to boot. The fact that he lasted 12 seasons – longer than Barry, longer than Calvin – before finally saying “get me outta here” says all you need to know about his mental toughness, and an 8.5 season iron man streak checks the physical toughness boxes.

That being said, the divorce papers have officially been filed. My guy was traded this weekend to the L.A. Rams for QB Jared Goff, a 2021 3rd round pick, and 1st rounders in 2022 and 2023. It marks the first swap of players selected No. 1 overall in NFL history, and further signals that GM Brad Holmes, HC Dan Campbell, and the new regime are opting to rip out the carpet rather than using Spot Shot on the shit stain Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia left on the floor of Ford Field.

Here are an assortment of thoughts on the end of an era, and what this split means for the organization moving forward.

Also some tribute videos. Because he deserves ’em.

What say you, Stafford haters?

If you know me or have read any of my Lions observations over the lifetime of this site, you’ll know I’ve spent plenty of time trying to convert the Stafford haters. One consolation prize with this trade, along with the draft compensation, is that I won’t have to waste time, energy, and word count trying to do this any longer. If you still think he isn’t capable of quarterbacking a winning team there are a whole slew of organizations that disagree with you that feel they are a Stafford-caliber QB away from a Super Bowl and, at minimum, inquired about Stafford’s price tag.

There is a reason why the Stafford domino was the first to fall in what is expected to be an unprecedented offseason of quarterback movement. His skillset, leadership, and even contract (which made him the highest-paid QB in the NFL once upon a time) are all highly desirable even at this advanced stage of his career.

And of course, the burning question for the “he’s never won anything” crowd is why the Rams would trade their much younger QB that has done a whole lotta winning, even leading his team to a Super Bowl by the tender age of 25, for a guy that has never won a playoff game? Because people that know a lot more about football than you or I (but mostly you) think Matthew Stafford is one of the most underrated and underappreciated signal-callers in the league.

Now it’s up to him to prove the haters wrong.

#QBWinzAreNotAStat

Do me right

I find it fascinating that just one week after Stafford’s trade request went public the Lions found a way to send him to what was apparently his top destination. Stafford’s wife Kelly has been planting the seeds on The Gram for years now that Cali is where she preferred her man to end his career.

Whether the Lions did the Stafford family a solid or it was just a coincidence that the Rams put forth the most desirable trade package, this is a good PR move for the new regime and a welcome counter to the player unfriendly image the Lions had built themselves since ownership came for Calvin Johnson’s (unearned) contract bonus and Matt Patricia accused Darius Slay of blowing opposing receivers.

I love being from the area, but Detroit will rarely be an outsider’s top destination to work and play. But when potential free agents know they have a front office that will treat them right, it moves the destination meter ever so slightly in the right direction.

More of this, please.

Remember that one time Detroit and Kansas City met in a battle of unbeaten teams? Loudest I ever heard Ford Field. Good times. Yes, close losses count as good times round these parts. It’s a sad existence.

The trade grades are in…

…and none of them matter.

The Lions are getting favorable reviews across the sports media landscape for the haul of picks they got in return for Stafford.

The Athletic = A. Neat!

LionsWire = A-minus. Hot dog!

Mike Valenti = A+. Get right outta town!

I guess I need to get my hands on a 2023 big board in the No. 24-32 range. It must be loaded based on those grades.

Can we please stop doing this pointless exercise? The return on this trade could be a haul of assets. It also could be a haul of ass if this turns into the next failed regime in a long line of failed regimes. Let’s circle back in 2025 and grade this trade. Or don’t. That’s also an option.

Do you know what I’ve noticed in my crusade against instant draft and trade grading? That there are actually a lot of talking heads that agree with the premise of not being able to properly evaluate a transaction until we, um, know who the players are and if they are good at football. And d’ya know what? It doesn’t stop them from slapping a C+ at the end of their “I’m not a big fan of grades” speech.

Fine. Have it your way.

The Warm Grade = C+

That was kind of fun. Now I see why all the cool kids do it.

In all seriousness, I am satisfied with the return the Lions got in this deal, but a bit less enthusiastic than the masses. Now, part of that is my appreciation for Stafford, as I expected a hefty package for a guy as coveted as I knew Stafford would be. I am also conditioned for things not to go according to plan with this franchise, so I’ll get excited about the picks once they materialize into quality NFL players. But if this divorce was going to happen one way or another, these terms should be enough for the Lions to land on their feet once all is said and done.

One thing I do like is the fact that the Lions chose the asset package that included less high-end/immediate options (Carolina reportedly offered pick No. 8 in 2021, for instance), opting instead to take a deal that spread the picks across multiple years. This was smart for a variety of reasons and proves that Holmes and Campbell are taking a patient and measured approach to rebuilding this organization. Holmes in particular, with his background as director of college scouting in L.A., will have a much easier time hitting on his future first-rounders in a post-COVID world (that’s gonna be a thing, right?) rather than trying to project player development in the midst of the chaos and confusion that was 2020.

Mild concern: Detroit Patriots 2.0?

Remember how former GM Bob Quinn almost exclusively did all of his wheeling and dealing with his old pals up in Beantown?

I really hope a combination of all of the above factors is the reason Detroit chose L.A. as their trade partner and that it wasn’t simply Holmes’ familiarity with the Rams organization.

I don’t think this is the case. But, you know, QuinnTricia PTSD and all that.

Are we sure Goff ain’t the guy?

Pretty sure. But not entirely.

Goff is almost an afterthought in this trade. A really, really, ridiculously expensive afterthought. But Goff is interesting enough to warrant heading into 2021 with an open mind in terms of whether or not a change of scenery was all he needed to flip his career trajectory back in the right direction.

How can going from L.A. and Sean McVay to Detroit and Dan Campbell possibly lead to anything but further regression and an eventual release 1-2 years down the road? I mean, this is the more likely scenario, make no mistake about it. But there is an interesting piece by Mark Schofield of TouchdownWire that suggests there is still a No. 1 overall pick somewhere inside the guy that has a 42/29 TD:INT ratio the past two seasons (Stafford’s ratio in seven fewer games was 45/15, for comparison’s sake).

Schofield suggests that McVay’s admittedly great offensive scheme may have actually stunted Goff’s growth by holding his hand too much and stripping away his instincts, leading to indecision and hesitation whenever a play broke down or a pocket collapsed. It’s easy to see why McVay would be confident in Stafford’s ability to execute his offensive vision for the Rams, considering he has played for approximately 87 different head coaches and offensive coordinators in his career. He’ll be able to handle anything you throw at him.

If the Lions are to unlock the Goff that played his way into the top pick in the draft in 2016 they will likely have to tailor this offense to his strengths, rather than trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. The fact that Holmes just traded for Goff when so many other offers were reportedly on the table leads me to believe the QB he was so enamored with coming out of Cal still has something he hasn’t shown. Holmes is doubling down on his scouting eye giving it another go with the QB he campaigned trading up for in the 2016 draft. If Goff doesn’t flip the script on his narrative, this will simply be a cameo appearance for him in Honolulu Blue.

But I like the fact that Goff offers enough upside and intrigue to make not taking a QB with the No. 7 pick in 2021 a viable strategy. And if Goff stinks up the joint next season the Lions will be in an even more advantageous draft position in 2022 anyway.

Subscribe to The Warm Take to receive the latest articles straight to your inbox

Follow @TheWarmTake on Twitter

“Like” The Warm Take on Facebook

The Detroit Lions are Committed to a Losing Culture

I had pretty much checked out on the team I hate to love recently. Outside of fantasy purposes, where my Lions-heavy draft approach has somehow carried me to a league final (having Derrick Henry AND Dalvin Cook helps! *I’m doing the feed me spoon thing that running backs do right now*), I just can’t muster the strength to get emotionally invested in the final score at the tail end of yet another losing season.

But news came out this week that got the blood pumping and reminded me that I’m still alive, despite all the flaming dumpsters these eyes have seen.

Time for some culture talk.

“Like” The Warm Take on Facebook

Here Coombs the reaper

The Detroit Lions fired Special Teams Coordinator Brayden Coombs this week after he broke rank and dialed up a fake punt behind Interim Head Coach Darrell Bevell’s back. It has been reported that the insubordinate act was simply the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back and that Coombs had been given the “not a culture fit” designation a la the recently exiled Quandre Diggs, Darius Slay, and others.

Let’s be clear up front: The firing of a special teams coordinator is not going to make me lose sleep at night. They can and will find another. But the context here matters and shines a light on just how big of a hole this organization has to dig out of before they establish a culture that is anything but a losing one.

The exact game scenario of the fireable offense is as follows:

Detroit trails Tennessee 32-18 with roughly 12 minutes to go in the fourth quarter. Lions are facing a 4th & 4 from their own 31 yard-line. Punting means giving the ball back to Derrick Henry, the NFL’s leading rusher who already had 141 yards in this game by doing stuff like this, which was just plain rude…

The Lions are bad pretty much everywhere defensively, but against the run they have allowed the fourth-most yards in the NFL and a league-worst 24 TDs.

There is ZERO chance the Lions win that game if they punt in this situation, which is what they were trying to do considering this is Darrell Bevell’s audition to have his interim tag removed and to be named the next head coach of this sorry franchise. The correct move was to simply go for it on fourth down but Bevell was concerned over the hits Matthew Stafford took on the previous two plays. A valid concern, as the aforementioned hits ended Stafford’s day early.

Bevell must’ve forgotten that he has a very handsomely paid backup QB to keep the ship from sinking in times like these.

Coombs knew, because he has a functioning brain, that trusting the defense to get multiple stops was the definition of insanity, since this defense has been a sieve since 2014. So he jumped rank and took matters into his own hands. His fake attempt came up a half-yard short, and a quick score from the Titans (obviously) put the game on ice.

Here is the replay of the ill-fated fake attempt.

Interestingly, the spot on the fake looked worthy of a challenge, but you know Bevell was having none of that since he was already drawing up Coombs’ pink slip. Would Coombs have been ousted if they picked up the first down? Who’s to say? It will just have to go down as one of life’s great mysteries. Like the origin of the universe, or how a franchise can win just one playoff game in 60+ years in a league built around parity.

The fallout

News of Coombs’ axing has more than a few players coming to his defense on Twitter. Some supportive…

some confused…

and others just tired of all the nonsense surrounding this franchise…

Here’s a bonus endorsement from a guy that is actually a year older than Coombs: Danny Amendola. From The Athletic:

“Great dude, man,” Amendola said. “Really happy to have him on board this year. (He) brings a lot of energy, brings a lot of knowledge. He’s aggressive. Great guy to have in the locker room.”

And to cap off the praise, let’s hear from newly minted Pro Bowler Jack Fox and his golden leg…

For such a “me first” guy, looks like Coombs sure did make a positive impact on the players under his wing, on and off the field.

But again, this isn’t just about the firing of a coordinator, but rather the way the Detroit Lions conduct business and the lack of self-awareness surrounding the state of their brand.

Why is Darrell Bevell, a guy that was gifted his head coaching position five minutes ago after the plug was pulled on the Quinn/Patricia experiment, being given the authority to initiate the firing of a young, coveted coordinator that has been as good as advertised when he was hired just 11 months ago? Is Bevell not also being actively evaluated as this season careens into the gutter?

Whether there were behind the scenes circumstances beyond the insubordination on the fake punt is relevant, but the optics combined with the “culture fit” excuse frame Coombs’ firing as yet another instance of a talented individual getting shoved out the door for not falling in line with a management team that has not earned its clout. Management that has undergone constant turnover and shouldn’t have the right to rule with an iron fist and turn away those who dare question authority or think that their way might be better.

And to recap: Coombs’ heinous act of defiance was simply keeping his team’s chances to win the game at 2% with a successful fake rather than punting away the win, in a largely meaningless game at the end of a lost season. The audacity!

Had Bevell leaned into the “Stafford was injured” reasoning it could have flown in my book. But in true Lions head coaching fashion, he doubled down with a lack of game awareness and a faulty belief in what his defense is capable of. From Pride of Detroit:

“with the score and where we were—we had three timeouts left, plus the two-minute warning—and Jack (Fox) is punting really well, I thought it’d be best to flip the field.”

Did I mention that the Lions are within striking distance of allowing the most yards in a season in team history?

But yeah, flip the field. It’s not like the Titans already had four touchdown drives of 75+ yards in the game or anything.

Missed opportunities

While Bevell presented the case to fire Coombs the day following the Tennessee loss, it was team president Rod Wood (among others) that had to sign off on the move. Given the fact that the Lions are actively looking for who their next head coach will be beyond 2020, this feels like a missed opportunity to see what kind of a sack Bevell possesses for dealing with personalities that clash with his own, which may have been the single biggest flaw of his predecessor, Matt Patricia.

The easiest and most convenient solution for dealing with a difficult employee is to show them the door. It takes no leadership to do so. It simply requires power and/or influence. What might the front office have learned about Bevell had they listened to his case to fire Coombs and then told him to go back and figure out how to make it work? The search team brought on to find the next head coach and GM could have watched how Bevell dealt with disciplining Coombs and addressed the team regarding the insubordination, while also giving Coombs, who is just 34-years-old, a chance to correct his behavior.

Would Coombs have shown the discipline to take his medicine and follow the chain of command going forward? If he is as disciplined as the special teams unit that he puts on the field every week that is an easy yes. In 2019 the Detroit Lions committed 19 special teams penalties (yikes!). Through 14 games in 2020 that number is…wait for it…zero.

And here’s the kicker (special teams pun!): upper management could have chosen the “figure it out” course of action even if they agreed with the initial decision to fire Coombs and simply cut bait in two weeks when the season ends.

As an added plot twist, it has been announced that Bevell, Defensive Coordinator Cory Undlin, and other members of the coaching staff will miss the upcoming Week 16 matchup against Tampa due to COVID protocols. It’s unclear whether Coombs would have been among those also ruled ineligible, but this week has turned into a big-time audition and will be a bold and highlighted resume item for the rest of the staff if they can keep this game competitive against one of the best teams in the NFC.

Some might consider Bevell’s power move as a sign of just how much he is respected by Lions management, which is a reasonable assumption. But the Lions should be in information gathering mode as they look to find out who can be a part of the future of this organization, and they just allowed an interim and potentially lame-duck head coach to cross an important name off their list.

Congratulations Lions. You learned that Darrell Bevell knows how to politely request a firing after “agonizing” over the decision “basically all night long” (doesn’t sound like a guy that is too confident in his decision). Consider this an opportunity missed. The Lions are elite at missing opportunities.

Culture Club

Yes, the Lions really do want to hurt me. And you. And anyone else that still gives a damn about this franchise.

I am so tired of hearing this organization play the “culture” card, because they have no idea how to properly identify the pieces to make whatever culture they are fantasizing about a reality. They have no problem signing guys that get arrested for DUI while carrying a weapon without a permit. But a coordinator that dares to be aggressive in a situation where there is little to lose (other than his job, apparently)? Not a culture fit —-> unemployment line.

All I want for Christmas is for the Lions to stop distancing themselves from any dissenting voice or contrarian opinion that enters their locker room. When these individuals also come with clear and obvious strengths, they need to have their voices heard and talents utilized. They should not be free from personal responsibility and reprimand for going rogue, but cutting bait is a management crutch for those unwilling to do the dirty work of getting the most from your subordinates.

The Coombs firing is just another log of evidence in the fire that suggests to the outside world that if you aren’t a loser, or are at least content with blindly following the leadership of losers, your talents might not be suited for Honolulu Blue.

From Psychology Today:

Groupthink is a phenomenon that occurs when a group of well-intentioned people makes irrational or non-optimal decisions spurred by the urge to conform or the belief that dissent is impossible. The problematic or premature consensus that is characteristic of groupthink may be fueled by a particular agenda—or it may be due to group members valuing harmony and coherence above critical thought.

Hey, Detroit Lions. Less harmony and more critical thought please.

Subscribe to The Warm Take to receive the latest articles straight to your inbox

Follow @TheWarmTake on Twitter

“Like” The Warm Take on Facebook

Detroit Lions: Reasons for Hope – Reasons for Nope

I’ve been busy. A new career venture working with the academically underprivileged youth of Detroit while supporting three of my own demon spawn perfect angels in their virtual learning journeys has the Warm Take household in a time crunch.

But d’ya know what I can always squeeze in some time for?

DETROIT LIONS FALSE HOPE BABYYYYYY!

Then again, my cold lifeless eyes have seen some terrible things. Unspeakable things. I have memories that cannot be repressed, for the wounds are too fresh and the visions to vivid, all thanks to this sad franchise. My rational brain tells me that for every reason for hope, there is an equal and opposite reason for…NOPE!

There are so many storylines surrounding the team, the league, and the general state of mother earth that the range of outcomes for the Lions in 2020 is pretty wide. There are plenty of rounds in the chamber of arguments no matter if you are team SOL or team Kool-Aid.

Here is a collection of thoughts that I deem relevant when trying to figure out just what the hell is going to happen when the team I hate to love kicks off their season Sunday against Chicago.

Let’s play a little game called reasons for hope, reasons for nope!

Reason for hope: In Stafford I trust

There are few things I know about the Detroit Lions. But one of them is that they have a top-10 quarterback.

We don’t need to spend much time here, because I’ve professed my love for Matthew Stafford ad nauseum over the course of this site’s history. Here is some Stafford propaganda you should have read already. Though propaganda would imply that I am biased or pushing an agenda. Nothin’ but facts, data, and the old peepers have formed my opinion of the criminally underappreciated signal-caller in Honolulu Blue.

He was so good (so good, so good, so f’n good) in his injury-shortened 2019 campaign, which was the most efficient season of his career. Let’s frame it this way: His full season floor in 2019 was Pro Bowl. His ceiling? MVP consideration.

SOL food for thought…

Here is something for the Stafford detractors (because those are real people) who probably threw up in their mouths a little bit at the words “MVP consideration”. And I can make my point without using any scary numbers (dumb guys hate those)…

Losing Matthew Stafford last season literally flipped the Lions from a middle-of-the-pack, wild card-ish team into the worst team in the NFL.

Back to 2020. Having an elite quarterback with 12 years of NFL experience in a returning system that carved up the league in 2019 could be a massive advantage for the Lions this season in particular. The COVID-shortened offseason could adversely affect teams with young QBs, new QBs, new offensive systems, or any other host of organizational changes more than teams that are returning to business as usual. Reflecting this potential advantage, the Lions ranked 11th in The Athletic’s Team Continuity Rankings. We’ll have to keep an eye on whether that is a worthwhile metric, but for what it’s worth the top-6 is a who’s who of the best teams in the NFL.

The Matthew Stafford/Darrell Bevell led Lions offense was a well-oiled machine in 2019. Detroit won’t miss the lost preseason as much as some other teams, and you don’t even need to leave the division to find a couple of ’em. The Chicago Bears just announced their starting quarterback, like, five minutes ago (Mitch Trubisky if you’re nasty) while the Minnesota Vikings have new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a whopping 15 player draft class who will be learning on the fly without the benefit of a dress rehearsal.

Reason for nope: The ‘Rona effect

Winning football games in Detroit is hard enough without an assist from this damn pandemic, which I am sooooo done with (GET THESE KIDS IN THE CLASSROOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!).

Only five NFL teams will have fans in the stands (albeit at a reduced capacity) to start the season: Kansas City, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Miami, and Cleveland. Note that the Lions are not one of said teams, which is not surprising given the state’s conservative approach to handling the virus.

While this is a smart call from a public health and safety perspective, it certainly ain’t good for creating a home-field advantage. And Detroit needs every advantage it can get. Say what you will about long-suffering Lions fans, they show up and make noise just like fans of competent teams do. The Lions-Chiefs Week 4 heartbreaker last season was the loudest I have ever heard Ford Field, and it nearly (and should have) resulted in a win over the eventual Super Bowl champs.

There are some silver linings here. Unlike Vegas and Washington, who have ruled fans out for the entire 2020 season, the Lions are taking a wait and see approach, only ruling out spectators for the first two games. Their third home game, believe it or not, isn’t until November 1st. That leaves plenty of time for that miracle Trump promised to come and wipe out COVID and restore order to the world.

In all seriousness, we can’t predict what is going to happen that far down the road. But in the immediate future, it does look like the Lions will get an assist from aunt ‘Rona. Green Bay and Arizona, Detroit’s opponents in Weeks 2 & 3, also fall into the “no fans for first two games” category, so the Lions will theoretically benefit from those empty stands.

Will there be a tangible difference between an empty stadium and one that has fans at a 20% capacity? That’s tough to say. But there is one game further down the road in which the Lions have unquestionably lost some leverage.

The Lions were originally set to face the Jaguars in London this season as the “road” team, a plan which went up in smoke when the league canceled all of its international games for 2020 due to travel concerns. The game will now be played in Jacksonville on 10/18 – a true road game. As far as fans go, Jacksonville is allowing fans in the stands from the jump, and they are doing so at the largest capacity in the NFL. Based on the way Florida has handled the pandemic, it will likely look like spring break in the stands by the time October rolls around. Hope the Lions bring their hazmat suits.

Granted, needing a scheduling quirk to beat the Jaguars (who ain’t real good) is the sign of a sorry franchise. Nevertheless, what was arguably the Lions’ easiest game of 2020 (and a likely win on an international stage) got just a wee bit more difficult with the neutral-road shift.

To sum up, the pandemic has thrown things into a tizzy for all teams, and it’s hard to quantify what that means. But losing a neutral site “road” game, combined with the state’s cautious approach to all things COVID, makes me believe that virus-related changes will end up being a net negative for the Lions relative to the rest of the league.

Reason for hope: Matt Patricia’s stock up?

Someone come and check my temperature.

Head Coach Matt Patricia, my biggest question mark (literally, heh heh) surrounding this team, has me believing that he might be turning a corner in the “leader of men” department. Because that has been…an issue during his Detroit tenure. That might be putting it lightly.

Darius Slay, Quandre Diggs, and other former players have publicly aired their dirty laundry after leaving the team in recent years, and butting heads with the head coach has been a common denominator. While I have been reluctant to put all of this blame on Patricia, since there are also players who vouch for his particular brand of coaching, his inability to connect with all players rather than just his players has no doubt been a dividing presence in the locker room.

But like any player can grow and improve in his role, so too can a head coach. On August 25th, the Lions made headlines when they became the first team in the NFL to cancel practice in response to the shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha. In light of the latest act of police brutality and social inequality, Patricia opted to give his players the day to release their emotions and frustrations in a team meeting that turned into an impromptu therapy session.

What resulted was a meeting that Matthew Stafford described as “incredible” and “powerful”. The team unity that was strengthened that day could easily translate on the field just as much, if not more, than any practice time that was missed.

Patricia doesn’t deserve a medal for canceling one practice, nor does this act resolve him of his previous failings to connect with players. But the NFL has been so resistant to outward displays of protest or individual expression. For Patricia to have the awareness to get out in front of this particular issue and break from the status quo, knowing it was in the best interest of his players, shows some serious growth.

The Lions made headlines for all the right reasons by canceling that practice. Some good PR is just what the doctor ordered for Matt Patricia. This act of simply doing the right thing could pay dividends for this season and beyond if he can make his players (and potential free agents) believe he cares more about them than the final score.

Need an outside source to support the theory that Matt Patricia’s stock is up? Well, gambling guru Sean Koerner of The Action Network recently endorsed putting some duckets on Patricia to win NFL Coach of the Year at +4000. Obviously, those odds rightfully place him in longshot territory. But the fact that there is betting value here when Patricia spent most of 2019 on the hot seat is a sign that things are trending up.

Reason for nope: Bob Quinn’s stock down

All the instant graders who were quick to shower GM Bob Quinn and the Lions with praise and A-minuses after their 2020 draft haul back in April are silently getting their erasers out…and we haven’t even played a game yet.

Should’ve joined the no draft grades mafia. I tried to tell ’em. Click here for a draft review that has aged better than most.

In the latest edition of “for the love of god stop sinking precious resources into an easily replaceable position”, the Lions released 5th round RB Jason Huntley into the waiver stream with the hopes of him clearing and returning to Detroit’s practice squad. Instead, the Philadelphia Eagles sniped him, thus officially flushing the toilet on pick No. 172 for Detroit.

This is one instance where I will get out the pitchfork and side with team SOL. File this under gross incompetence on the part of Quinn. Anyone who says anything along the lines of “hey, it’s only a 5th round pick” hasn’t been keeping tabs on just how much of a return you can get on this valuable commodity.

Remember Quandre Diggs, former Lions Pro Bowl safety turned disgruntled ex? The return the Lions received for his services when he was shipped off to Seattle last season was a 5th round pick. Are you familiar with new Lions safety Duron Harmon of The Warm Take’s “best offseason move for Detroit” fame? The Lions plucked him and a 7th rounder from New England in exchange for that very same 5th round pick they received from Seattle.

Of course, you could also put the phone away and simply draft a player at that slot who fills a team need, of which the Lions have plenty. Given the fact that Bob Quinn has drafted or signed approximately 2,938,127 running backs in his tenure in Detroit shows that he is behind the times and hasn’t yet processed that you can find RBs between the couch cushions.

Signing Adrian Peterson for a six-pack of Hanes T-shirts? Good use of RB resources. Sticking your head in the dumpster and coming out with Bo Scarborough? Good use of RB resources.

Spending a 5th round pick on a running back who wasn’t even included on many top-300 draft boards after already taking D’Andre Swift in the 2nd round?

Yes, I’m going to be that guy: Keep an eye on Jets punter Braden Mann, who the Lions could have taken at the slot they took Huntley. Quinn opted to be frugal at the least sexy position in football and let longtime Lion Sam Martin walk in free agency. He could have replaced Martin with Mann, the top punter in the 2020 class, but decided he’d rather light pick No. 172 on fire instead.

I have a bad feeling that Quinn’s willingness to let any geek off the street (regulators, mount up!) handle punting duties this season will backfire sooner than later. Again, this isn’t about losing Huntley. This is about the infinite other ways Quinn could have used this pick by keeping his eye on the long-game, rather than falling in love with a guy’s 40-time.

And who cuts a 5th round pick before Week 1? Come on, mann (pun intended).

Subscribe to The Warm Take to receive the latest articles straight to your inbox.

“Like” The Warm Take on Facebook

Follow @TheWarmTake on Twitter